how many of you would take/pass this bet

[pico]

the odds of one bet winning is 93.75%, the odds is -1750, how many of you would take it?

here is the line, would you pass or take one of the sides?

Yes -1750
No +1206

btw, these are the true odds and real lines, so this is not a mental exercise...it is for real money.

[topgame85]

Other than in a hand of poker pass

[SBR Lou]

I think everyone here already knows what I'd do..

(I'd take the bet for 'Yes')

[dwaechte]

Pass.

[Deuce]

It all matters to me what the bet is and how confident I feel not the bookmaker.

[Dazzez]

Pass.

I don't like -EV bets.

[freeVICK]

parlay

[louisvillekid]

i would need to know the sport and/or team ,player, person i'm putting the money on.
i can't make an assumption with out knowing what the bet is on.

[durito]

i would need to know the sport and/or team ,player, person i'm putting the money on.
i can't make an assumption with out knowing what the bet is on.

he already gave you the odds of them winning, which is -EV at both offered lines.

[gordon gekko]

parlay

.

[louisvillekid]

he already gave you the odds of them winning, which is -EV at both offered lines.

i'd still like to know the sport.

[durito]

i'd still like to know the sport.

ok, it's underwater basket weaving.


either way, it's a bad bet.

[louisvillekid]

now durito you know i ain't no math guy, but if it was some UFC fighter, and i rarely watch the stuff, but my brother and his friend watch every event and record everything, and if they told me so-n-so was virtually a lock and ain't losing to whoever, and the price was that, i would still probably take their word for it and throw some money on it.

now i generally don't play anything at a price like that, but in certain situations i might or would.

hell it could be a ML play on someone like LSU or USC in football playing some Div II school, i would take a bet like that.

[durito]

if the chances were above 94.59% (1750/1850) it's a good bet (the favorite). Or above 7.66% (100/1306) the dog

but, picoman gave you the chances of it winning -- 93.75% (thus 6.25% dog, assuming no ties) and neither line gives you an edge

[louisvillekid]

i just got back on and seen your post durito.
i see what you guys are saying now, it has to be a trend that hits or has hit at a certain % and the price is at that amount, and would you take it or not.
i'm probably still wrong, but hey, i'm not a math dude, math don't come into the equation for me to bet on a team,person, etc. I guess for the examples i posted above, a 93% trend wouldn't come into effect. if some UFC or MMA fighter was at that price and i played him, it's because he is probably undefeated and the dude he is fighting ain't fought him or moved up/down a class, so a 93% trend wouldn't come into the equation. Or a top college football team playing some weak Div II school and taking them on the ML, they teams probably wouldn't have played enough to get a 93% trend.
I just didn't catch the 93% trend part, i just was curious what the sport was he was talking about. I didn't catch it was a math thing.

[Stacocakes]

93% chance of winning?I would take it for sure

[durito]

i just got back on and seen your post durito.
i see what you guys are saying now, it has to be a trend that hits or has hit at a certain % and the price is at that amount, and would you take it or not.
i'm probably still wrong, but hey, i'm not a math dude, math don't come into the equation for me to bet on a team,person, etc. I guess for the examples i posted above, a 93% trend wouldn't come into effect. if some UFC or MMA fighter was at that price and i played him, it's because he is probably undefeated and the dude he is fighting ain't fought him or moved up/down a class, so a 93% trend wouldn't come into the equation. Or a top college football team playing some weak Div II school and taking them on the ML, they teams probably wouldn't have played enough to get a 93% trend.
I just didn't catch the 93% trend part, i just was curious what the sport was he was talking about. I didn't catch it was a math thing.

but pico didn't say it was a trend. obviously if it's a sports bet your estimate of winning is just that, and estimate, thus pico could have a different estimate than you.

rather though, he said it was a bet with a specific chance of winning. knowing this information exactly before hand, and the choice is easy.

say the bet was will a marble picked at random from a bag be blue? in the bag are 9,375 blue marbles and 625 red marbles.

[SBR_John]

I would just ask Ganchrow.

[durito]

I would just ask Ganchrow.

or you could ask a 3rd grade math class.

just make sure they can do long division or have a calculator

[LT Profits]

Why is this so hard? The obvious answer is PASS because at 93.75%, the breakeven point is -1500. Last time I checked, -1750 was worse than -1500.

[jtuck]

Kelly says pass, so i agree

[LT Profits]

Who needs Kelly when third grade division wiill do?

93.75/6.25 = 15 (-1500)

[jtuck]

Who needs Kelly when third grade division wiill do?

93.75/6.25 = 15 (-1500)

The calculator has me spoiled

[LT Profits]

Yes, I like playing with Ganch's tool too.

Wait, let me rephrase...

[SBR Lou]

Yes, I like playing with Ganch's tool too.

Wait, let me rephrase...

I'm not sure Jen Bird would like to hear that.