Is SD -14.5 Free Money?

[Sledge187]

Everybody knows anyone could win in the NFL at any point but it is the scenario that has transpired for the Chiefs the last few weeks that makes this spread very tempting.

[JassieJames]

No way am I going to lay that many points on an divisional game. Cheifs!

[boneheaded1]

Koz, yes I know. But I was responding to JJ who said there is no such thing as free money and Lock (aka Captain Obvious) chimed in and I was responding to that on the post you quoted.

[bigsmitty]

This is as close to an untouchable spread as I think you can get and still take it. I'm on SD -14.5. I think it might be a veritable perfect storm in the Chargers favor. Cheers

[ThePickSix]

Not at all easy money. Heres why: The trends
1. Teams playing consecutive road games coming off a loss are 126-69 ATS. Todd Haley is 4-0.
2. The Chargers are 0-3 covering a spread of 14 pts in the last 10 yrs.
3. The line opened at 15 and has dropped to 14 showing the house is betting on the road team.
4. If the Chiefs score 9-10 points the spread becomes 24.

[chopperocker]

check a game in 2008, SD won 20-19 with -14.5 line at home.

you guys don't watch a lot of NFL games to think that the chiefs have no chance. The year the dolphins went 1-15 the only team they beat was the nearly undefeated patriots who at the time was in first place and had one of the best records in football. The chargers are notorious choke artists too. If any team can lose to the Chiefs, it is the chargers.

the parallel to these two statements are home favs of 10 or more vs. divisional opponent.

heres how they trend last 5 years -
49-12 Straight Up
19-41-1 Against the Spread
25-34-2 Over/Under

buyer beware....

[ThePickSix]

Good call chopper. This has house bet written all over it. Plus it seems like a gamble and not a sound investment.

[ThaWoj]

Have some fun with it...

Here's a pleaser for ya:

SD -20.5
Pitt -16.5
Det -9

Thank me Monday.

i like the opposite of all 3 of those plays..but gl sir

i dont do them often but this seems like a great spot for a 13 point teaser.

using 5dimes odds...
KC +29.5
INDY +25.5
MIN +17
MIA +16 or DEN +17.5 (would need a 4th game in the teaser to get the -130 odds)

[dontbuythehook]

Pretty sure KC is without jamal charles (spelling?) so I'd back off this one

[davidx191]

It might be a divisional game but look at how well Kansas City has done @ San Diego during Todd Haley's time as coach. I think the 08 team that only lost by 1 point @ San Diego was much better than this current Chiefs team. Tyler Thigpen was on fire during that time and keeping the Chiefs extremely competitive.

[Speedy88]

How can people on this forum be hyping up the Chiefs? Like C'mon people. You guys remind me of the 24/7 Ortiz-Mayweather show. You are trying to make a match that is completely uneven, look even. SD should roll easily here. They are at home, and they have 100X more talent than the Chiefs. How can you defend a team that has been outscored by 79 points in 2 games. They lost their best defensive player, and their best offensive player.

And Matt Cassel is only good with a run game. W/o a run game, he is a sub-par QB. He did well last year because he was seeing one-on-one coverage on all his wideouts.

[k13]

How can people on this forum be hyping up the Chiefs? Like C'mon people. You guys remind me of the 24/7 Ortiz-Mayweather show. You are trying to make a match that is completely uneven, look even. SD should roll easily here. They are at home, and they have 100X more talent than the Chiefs. How can you defend a team that has been outscored by 79 points in 2 games. They lost their best defensive player, and their best offensive player.

And Matt Cassel is only good with a run game. W/o a run game, he is a sub-par QB. He did well last year because he was seeing one-on-one coverage on all his wideouts.

This is the nfl not boxing. Any given Sunday.

They still have Jones and McCluster.

[KKoz9]

I would be hesitant to lay 14.5 on ANY NFL team in ANY game is the point. It's not William & Mary College they are playing.

Look for a close game when everything points to the opposite...this is the NFL way, the league is designed for PARITY.

An extra point miss, garbage TD, special teams play will surely blow this spread if it's not closer throughout.


I'm laying off but good luck to those of you gonna lay that chalk.

[chopperocker]

I would be hesitant to lay 14.5 on ANY NFL team in ANY game is the point. It's not William & Mary College they are playing.

Look for a close game when everything points to the opposite...this is the NFL way, the league is designed for PARITY.

An extra point miss, garbage TD, special teams play will surely blow this spread if it's not closer throughout.


I'm laying off but good luck to those of you gonna lay that chalk.

NotForLong

Word!!!

[ManBearPig]

I would play KC if I was playing this one, but I think there is better value out there. SD just can't be trusted with this much chalk. I am considering making SD a survivor pick though.

[grizzlies1]

Not at all easy money. Heres why: The trends
1. Teams playing consecutive road games coming off a loss are 126-69 ATS. Todd Haley is 4-0.
2. The Chargers are 0-3 covering a spread of 14 pts in the last 10 yrs.
3. The line opened at 15 and has dropped to 14 showing the house is betting on the road team.
4. If the Chiefs score 9-10 points the spread becomes 24.

I dont understand point 4? Surely regardless of how many the Chiefs score the spread is still SD-14.5??

[neverstoppers23]

It looks like a really good bet, but I don't know. San Diego scares me betting on them. They play weird at times, and sometimes they are not at the top of their game, every game. Esp. early on.

[sunday silence]

Chargers have a higher chance of blowing out KC, then KC has of keeping it close.

[cant call it]

Yes, its free money... for vegas. Enjoy the bet while it is still pending.

[stevek173]

Cassell to Bowe.

You lose.

[SprtsCapnGuru]

How can people on this forum be hyping up the Chiefs? Like C'mon people. You guys remind me of the 24/7 Ortiz-Mayweather show. You are trying to make a match that is completely uneven, look even. SD should roll easily here. They are at home, and they have 100X more talent than the Chiefs. How can you defend a team that has been outscored by 79 points in 2 games. They lost their best defensive player, and their best offensive player. And Matt Cassel is only good with a run game. W/o a run game, he is a sub-par QB. He did well last year because he was seeing one-on-one coverage on all his wideouts.

Check the stats on the Chiefs running this year without Charles carrying the rock....Cassel has done terrible with an above average run game! The Chiefs average 5.5 yards a carry in 2 games and 130 yards a game.....Charles only only has 12 carries for 83 yards which is incredible, but take him out and our numbers are still there....I know the Chiefs are terrible this year, but stop hating on the running attack.

[mattsolt8228]

KC is awful and Chargers are coming off an ugly loss but its still a division game......regardless......chargers kill and win by atleast 20 because again...KC is that awful

[babyjesus]

charger will get spanked...

[Statman]

SD is a strange team. Every year, there are always high hopes and every year they can't seem to make it to the big game...I remember the year they hosted the Jets as 7 pt home favourites with a trip to the AFC championship on the line and could not do it. Yes I know the Jets defence was on fire at that time but this team has a habit of burning the public's money over and over. Even last week there were a number of people that had high hopes of SD going into NE as 7 pt dogs and we know how that turned out. Tied in with the fact that they seem to start slow and the Norv Turner factor, I just can't play this game this week. Good luck in your plays though.

[BigJ]

S.D. should win by 3 TD's or more. Not free money, but a good bet.

Good luck...

[BettingWizard]

chargers have a hard time blowing out teams they should, they can't be trusted early on

Pass

[Time is Money]

Locked this in a 3 team teaser and thats the only way I'm touching this game. Chiefs are horrid but this still is an in division game.

[bigsmitty]

The past is the past but it does give an indication of the future. Add up KC's points for/against the last two games and their quality of opposition. Do the same for SD. The answer gives SD as reasonable a likelihood of covering this spread as any other game. It is predictably huge so as to make SD relatively unattractive. What would you like Vegas to have put SD back for this game to attempt to get an even betting field? Cheers

[agronox]

Like 'em as a suicide pick, think it's probably smart to stay away from this game otherwise

[ThaWoj]

Have some fun with it...

Here's a pleaser for ya:

SD -20.5
Pitt -16.5
Det -9

Thank me Monday.

i like the opposite of all 3 of those plays..but gl sir

i dont do them often but this seems like a great spot for a 13 point teaser.

using 5dimes odds...
KC +29.5
INDY +25.5
MIN +17
MIA +16 or DEN +17.5 (would need a 4th game in the teaser to get the -130 odds)

KC +29.5
INDY +25.5
MIN +17
MIA +16
DEN +17.5

pending the SD game (SD only up 3 in 3rd Qtr) and IND game, all are going to cover outright.

[frostno98]

[face]

kc +15 looking good.

[FindTheLock]

chiefs ML is within reach at this point. Chargers are the andy roddick of the NFL

[jjgold]

SD poorly coached, never forget this in your capping

[FindTheLock]

yep they go for it on 4th and 1 to seal the game but they get stuffed by the chiefs.