Hey everyone, I'm new to both this forum and to handicapping. I've been betting for a period of time now, I booked a little bit in college with friends, and I've paid a service or two in the past for picks.
That being said I'm looking to improve. I've been reading the forums a little bit, and I'm going to try my hand at the "intro to research" thread. But this weekend I sat and tried to put a line on as many games as I could without looking at the posted line.
I basically looked at each team's past opponents and results, who was home team and wrote down a line. I then went into some stats for each and wrote down where I thought teams had an edge and I either kept the line or moved the line. Then I looked at the posted line and compared mine with it. The overall results were :
College : 11 correct, 11 wrong
Pro : 7 correct, 7 wrong, 1 push.
The problem is that the games where my line was different by 6pts or more I bet and I ended up with 5 wins and 7 losses. So a negative weekend.
So I'm looking for some advice. What are some key stats you concentrate on when researching, what factors weigh more heavily than others, etc.
I tried using kelly this weekend but my problem is figuring out the win probability.
Again any help/advice would greatly be appreciated and I look forward to being a part of this community and learning from y'all.
That being said I'm looking to improve. I've been reading the forums a little bit, and I'm going to try my hand at the "intro to research" thread. But this weekend I sat and tried to put a line on as many games as I could without looking at the posted line.
I basically looked at each team's past opponents and results, who was home team and wrote down a line. I then went into some stats for each and wrote down where I thought teams had an edge and I either kept the line or moved the line. Then I looked at the posted line and compared mine with it. The overall results were :
College : 11 correct, 11 wrong
Pro : 7 correct, 7 wrong, 1 push.
The problem is that the games where my line was different by 6pts or more I bet and I ended up with 5 wins and 7 losses. So a negative weekend.
So I'm looking for some advice. What are some key stats you concentrate on when researching, what factors weigh more heavily than others, etc.
I tried using kelly this weekend but my problem is figuring out the win probability.
Again any help/advice would greatly be appreciated and I look forward to being a part of this community and learning from y'all.