I think this game will be pretty close. I don't think the Pats will lose, but the Chargers usually play them tough.
Because I think both the spread and total are pretty damn close, I think the best bets for today are prop bets.
On Monday night, the Pats ran 80 offensive plays. 65 of those featured 2 TEs (primarily Hernandez and Gronkowski). The remaining 15 had 1 TE. Not a single offensive snap without a TE on the field. Belichick is very big on his 2 young TEs because they have tremendous talent and are tough for defenses to cover. Gronkowski had just 3 drops in 49 targets last year. He has amazing hands for a big guy and is almost unstoppable in the red zone. Hernandez can block fairly well, line up in the slot, run deep routes, etc. He is essentially a WR who gets beneficial coverage on him.
The Pats will use these 2 to keep the defense honest, open up their receivers and to sneak Woodhead into some draw plays.
My plays (all lines from 5Dimes)-
Hernandez receptions over 4 -130
Hernandez receiving yards over 55.5 -115
Gronkowski receptions over 3.5 -150
Gronkowski scores a TD +125
Doing .5 units each on the yards and TD props, 1 unit each for receptions.
Another decent prop is Matthews under 54.5 yards rushing at -130. I think he'll have a hard time getting around Wilfork and Haynesworth blowing up the middle of the line, with good tacklers like Mayo on the outside.
Just for shits and giggles, going to try a 7 point tease to middle the whole game. Pats ML, Chargers +14, over and under. We'll see if that's allowed, just decided to try it right now
Interesting side note- Brady hasn't lost a regular season home game since Nov 2006, on a 28 game win streak. He's also never lost a home opener. San Diego has the talent to end those... will they?
Because I think both the spread and total are pretty damn close, I think the best bets for today are prop bets.
On Monday night, the Pats ran 80 offensive plays. 65 of those featured 2 TEs (primarily Hernandez and Gronkowski). The remaining 15 had 1 TE. Not a single offensive snap without a TE on the field. Belichick is very big on his 2 young TEs because they have tremendous talent and are tough for defenses to cover. Gronkowski had just 3 drops in 49 targets last year. He has amazing hands for a big guy and is almost unstoppable in the red zone. Hernandez can block fairly well, line up in the slot, run deep routes, etc. He is essentially a WR who gets beneficial coverage on him.
The Pats will use these 2 to keep the defense honest, open up their receivers and to sneak Woodhead into some draw plays.
My plays (all lines from 5Dimes)-
Hernandez receptions over 4 -130
Hernandez receiving yards over 55.5 -115
Gronkowski receptions over 3.5 -150
Gronkowski scores a TD +125
Doing .5 units each on the yards and TD props, 1 unit each for receptions.
Another decent prop is Matthews under 54.5 yards rushing at -130. I think he'll have a hard time getting around Wilfork and Haynesworth blowing up the middle of the line, with good tacklers like Mayo on the outside.
Just for shits and giggles, going to try a 7 point tease to middle the whole game. Pats ML, Chargers +14, over and under. We'll see if that's allowed, just decided to try it right now
Interesting side note- Brady hasn't lost a regular season home game since Nov 2006, on a 28 game win streak. He's also never lost a home opener. San Diego has the talent to end those... will they?
