If you're ever going to bet road chalk that has lost 6 in a row....

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  • Patrick McIrish
    SBR MVP
    • 09-15-05
    • 2864

    #1
    If you're ever going to bet road chalk that has lost 6 in a row....
    ... today is the day. Sowers is headed to the farm, 1-11 the last two seasons, Kazmir is headed to the All-Star game. An even better bet than laying -145 and the Rays is to take Tampa team total O4-, even the way they are hitting they should cover this number rather easily. Think I'll take a piece of both and throw in a game over as well. Opinions?
  • pat venditto
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 05-07-07
    • 14347

    #2
    Comment
    • treece
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 11-28-07
      • 6298

      #3
      I got the Rays -141 at BetOnline. Perfect scenario for the Rays to get the win.
      Comment
      • Patrick McIrish
        SBR MVP
        • 09-15-05
        • 2864

        #4
        Originally posted by treece
        I got the Rays -141 at BetOnline. Perfect scenario for the Rays to get the win.

        Yeah I agree, just what a young (struggling) team needs going into the break.



        Pat II - thanks buddy.
        Comment
        • MonkeyF0cker
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 06-12-07
          • 12144

          #5
          I don't know what to think about this game, honestly. The Rays aren't scoring right now and they are terrible against LHP. Although it is Jeremy Sowers on the mound, he's still a lefty. The Rays only average 3.7 runs per game against left-handed starters. Kazmir is struggling a bit lately, granted his last two outings were against Boston and the Yankees. The Rays bullpen has also had its problems on the road. Cleveland is not really any better than the Rays against LHP, scoring 4.4 runs per game but with only a .229 batting average. I might make a play on the under for the first five since either bullpen could send it over for the game. I just can't pick a side in this one...
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          • Patrick McIrish
            SBR MVP
            • 09-15-05
            • 2864

            #6
            All valid points Focker.
            Comment
            • Patrick McIrish
              SBR MVP
              • 09-15-05
              • 2864

              #7
              BTW I could not recommend any sort of under play in this game Monkey. Even 1st five. Sowers has just been pathetic the last two years. TB does hit lefties poorly but so has some of the other clubs that Sowers has faced recently. I think I saw opponents have a .400 OBP against him this year!? That coupled with the fact Kazmir has struggled as well of late would keep me way off any sort of under bet. As you noted Tampa's bullpen has done poor on the road, Tribe has a pen ERA of over 9 in their last 10 games. That's not a statistcal flaw, they've been bad all year. I just can't see any sense in playing an under here, it may cash, you never know, but it won't be my money riding on it.

              Overall the Rays hit lefties better. Their pen is better. Their starting pitcher is much better. Their better in the field as well. My worry is what I said in the title, never a good time to bet a team that has lost 6 in a row, especially when playing on the road as a favorite. My concern isn't how they match up, my worry is how young the team is. I watch this club a lot, they play loose when things are going well, everyone seems to contribute and they roll. Things go bad they tighten up and press, they try to do too much. That's why they have these streaks, good and bad. That said if Tampa's #1 can't beat Sowers they don't deserve to be in playoff contention. I believe they will.
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              • MonkeyF0cker
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 06-12-07
                • 12144

                #8
                Yeah Sowers definitely would worry me for the under and I'll probably lay off of this one completely. I was saying something to the same effect a couple days ago regarding the Rays. They remind me of the Brewers last year around this time of year, a very young and talented team suddenly thrust from obscurity into the national spotlight after attaining the best record in the majors. The second half Brewers were nothing like the first half, finishing near the .500 mark and I'm wondering if the Rays will falter under the spotlight as well. This is a game that the Rays of a month ago would win convincingly but right now I'm not sure about them. It will be interesting to see how they react in the next couple of weeks after the break. Maybe this skid is just that - something that all teams go through at points throughout the year. Or perhaps its an indication of what's to come for the remainder of their schedule.
                Comment
                • SBR_John
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 07-12-05
                  • 16471

                  #9
                  I'll take a shot on this. Yea the rays have not hit LHP well but if they faced this one very often they would. Looks like a funk buster for the rays. Got to like Kaz on the mound after working hard against the yanks and sox.
                  Comment
                  • LT Profits
                    SBR Aristocracy
                    • 10-27-06
                    • 90963

                    #10
                    I guess it is just me, but there is no way I'd lay these kind of odds with the Rays right now. I think getting swept in that big series with the Yankees damaged their psychee a bit, and the Indians have played much better at home. Also, as nice of a story the Rays have been in the first half, they are still just 19-24 on the road.
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                    • Bostongambler
                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                      • 02-01-08
                      • 35581

                      #11
                      I might take a shot with Kazmir today as well. If this was last week I would def. be taking him here. But the thing that makes me hesitant is the Rays bats have been terrible as of late.
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                      • pavyracer
                        SBR Aristocracy
                        • 04-12-07
                        • 82863

                        #12
                        I'm bigh on Indians today. I went bigh with the Indians because Rays are in a tailspin and can't hit or score bigh. Sowers is not a bigh name pitcher but since the bigh Cleveland bats are on fire I'll stick bigh with them.
                        Comment
                        • Bostongambler
                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                          • 02-01-08
                          • 35581

                          #13
                          Why the extra H.
                          Comment
                          • pavyracer
                            SBR Aristocracy
                            • 04-12-07
                            • 82863

                            #14
                            Originally posted by Bostongambler
                            Why the extra H.
                            I have a hugh dyslexic bigh problem.
                            Comment
                            • Bostongambler
                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                              • 02-01-08
                              • 35581

                              #15
                              Ok Thanks.. That explains it.
                              Comment
                              • pavyracer
                                SBR Aristocracy
                                • 04-12-07
                                • 82863

                                #16
                                Originally posted by pavyracer
                                I'm bigh on Indians today. I went bigh with the Indians because Rays are in a tailspin and can't hit or score bigh. Sowers is not a bigh name pitcher but since the bigh Cleveland bats are on fire I'll stick bigh with them.
                                I went Hugh on Indians (5 innings)
                                Comment
                                • MonkeyF0cker
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 06-12-07
                                  • 12144

                                  #17
                                  Really glad I didn't play the first five under. Would have lost it in the bottom of the fifth....
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                                  • BeatTheJerk
                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                    • 08-19-07
                                    • 31794

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by Bostongambler
                                    Ok Thanks.. That explains it.
                                    what does that explain exactly lol , when you are dyslexic you get your letters and numbers crossed at times , its not about adding a letter to a word that doesn't exsist thats just called misspelling which i do from time to time (get it right fellas)
                                    Comment
                                    • BeatTheJerk
                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                      • 08-19-07
                                      • 31794

                                      #19
                                      well patrick you had a good writeup and case for the rays today and to tell you the truth i would have bought it if i read it in-time for this outing but fortunately i was penetrating my wives fun-box all nite
                                      Comment
                                      • pavyracer
                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                        • 04-12-07
                                        • 82863

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by BeatTheJerk
                                        what does that explain exactly lol , when you are dyslexic you get your letters and numbers crossed at times , its not about adding a letter to a word that doesn't exsist thats just called misspelling which i do from time to time (get it right fellas)
                                        It's a joke on AAO. I guess you missed it on Friday afternoon. Hilarious!
                                        Comment
                                        • BeatTheJerk
                                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                          • 08-19-07
                                          • 31794

                                          #21
                                          yeah i missed that paver ...........
                                          Comment
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