sunday play

[pat venditto]

Red Sox Moneyline (-195)

risking 2.5 units to win 1.28 units


Dice-k is as good as they get,has been very consistent this year as far as having quality starts and is very capable of shutting down this baltimore lineup.

Cabrera has been as inconsistent as they get. He can be very wild and Boston's powerful lineup (.282 team avg tied for 1st in the majors) should be able to get some runs off him.

[MikeC]

I'm putting the whole bankroll on this VenDitty! Let's Cash!

[accuscoresucks]

gl pat
i like boston but thats a juicey prop

[goldengoat]

wow

that's some heavy chalk. cabrera is decent and has shown some signs but his whip is still too high. boston's home record is impressive and baltimore is nothing special on the road. dice is a legit ace so i would test boston on the runline for just 1 unit.

gl

[AC1318]

cabrera 4-10 vs bos doesn't surprise me

but dice k 0-2 does vs bal

still and all bos should win

[topcat]

i just beted boston pat.thats a bargin for dice k.lets cash in.

[InTheHole]

Runline looks good and you can't argue given the pitcher and the field their playing on.

[Marigold HD]

Go Boston

[onthewhat]

patty v this may be the one time where the run line is not a bad play....boston is a lock to win straight up though so thats not a bad bet either.

[MonkeyF0cker]

The only value in this game is with the Orioles. Boston is a bad bet here at that price. Dice-K has been horrible against this team, with Boston losing both outings. He has a record of 0-1 with a 8.38 ERA and a WHIP of 1.758. Cabrera hasn't faired much better against the Red Sox either, however, posting a 2-9 record with a 7.11 ERA and 1.917 WHIP. The real play here is the over (9) and taking the value with the Orioles.

[pat venditto]

You don't know how to judge what is value and what is not. Just because its chalk does not mean its not value.

[pat venditto]

http://professionalgambler.com/mlineconv.html

-195 = 66% break even point

I believe boston will win this game 80% of the time in this current situation,with dice k and a fresh bullpen.

That would give me a 14% edge pal.

PHUCK YOU.

[MonkeyF0cker]

http://professionalgambler.com/mlineconv.html

-195 = 66% break even point

I believe boston will win this game 80% of the time in this current situation,with dice k and a fresh bullpen.

That would give me a 14% edge pal.

PHUCK YOU.

LOL. 80%! I'm sure a lot of regression went into that number. I guess I can't argue with someone who can plug a number into a web applet and click a button. They obviously have me outsmarted. I'm such an idiot.

P.S. - You might want to try converting your 80% probability into a moneyline once. What you just said is there's value on the Red Sox at any price up to -400. You're right though. It's me that has no idea what I'm talking about...

[pat venditto]

f0cker XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX pal.

[Brady2Moss]

Wow pat, you must be a real moron....

You honestly think the Sox win 80% of the time? Are you just flat out retarded or high on cocaine?

I will agree that Boston is getting some value with this line, maybe 2-3%...

[pat venditto]

HELLO READ SIR.

I SAID I BELIEVE BOSTON WILL WIN THIS GAME 80% OF THE TIME.

WITH DICE-K VS CABRERA MATCHUP

I never said anywhere boston will win 80% of their games read better please.

[pat venditto]

Go post your ****ing 3rd swedish football league lock you phuck.

[diogee]

Some funny Shit in here...

Good luck Pat.

[MonkeyF0cker]

f0cker take a kock in your ass pal.

And here I was expecting to hear some mathmatical wizardry, far beyond the scope of my paltry intelligence to explain this all to a neophyte such as myself. I hardly expected a response in terms that I could actually comprehend. I appreciate the simplicity yet decline the offer set forth.

[Brady2Moss]

LOL, wow Pat.. and for your information, I am not illiterate...

The Sox win this game no more than 70% of the time... I would say around 68% would be accurate.

P.S. Calm down, no need to PMS on an online forum...

[Brady2Moss]

F'n spaz

[gordon gekko]

Venditto you are a funny fukk, I am also on the Red Sox tomm.

[Capwizards]

TODAY'S FREE PLAY: 7/13/08 - ARZ vs PHI UNDER 7.5
If Webb is his normal self today, this line is a gift. Hamels and Webb meet today in a matchup of two of the better pitchers in the NL. Webb is 13-4 on the season with a 3.41 ERA. He has had his struggles this season, but the under has still been a solid play when he takes the mound The under is 8-1 in his last nine starts as a road dog. On the other side, Hamels is 2-1 in his last 3 starts with an ERA of 2.78. The under is 5-2 in Hamels last 7 starts. ARZ is only hitting .202 vs lefties in their last 10 games. I like this great pitching matchup today to stay low.

ONE 5 STAR PLAYS TODAY
MIN vs DET *****

[pavyracer]

Here we go again with the -200. Is this a joke?

[jjgold]

Patty you cannot win betting this way long term, you need to hit a high percentage of winners which is unlikely.

Good Luck Patty Boy

[Bostongambler]

Sox win 5-3

[SexyMit]

I have noticed that his recore is 8-2 but if I recall that his 8 wins were all HEAVY CHALK! You will not win in the long run betting this heavy of favorites all the time.

[Brady2Moss]

Dont tell him that, let is dumb@ss learn that the hard way...

Maybe then he will shut his big mouth, and be humbled like everyone else...

[daggerkobe]

pat/cloak/mike thinks only heavy favs win in baseball.

[ZBOIZ]

4 totals for today!!

Atl Under
Florida Under
Pitt over
Mets Over

[FreeFall]

Patty you cannot win betting this way long term, you need to hit a high percentage of winners which is unlikely.

Good Luck Patty Boy

http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-handicapping/78413-freefalls-lazy-system.html

[pat venditto]

anyone that believes u cant win long term betting chalk is an idiot. there can be value in +140 and there can be value in -195. cap the ****in game you square ball ****s only betting dogs.

[BeatTheJerk]

patty you have done a 180 in your philosophy of betting in just about a 2 month time-frame from when you did 15 team parlays and betting on the defeated unhealthy wizzards in the playoffs ............. nice coming around your maturing rather quickly as a capper ........... but to tell you the truth your ego is running far past your progress on handicapping (think about it) but anyway good job though so far on the new patty

[ryanXL977]

patty you have done a 180 in your philosophy of betting in just about a 2 month time-frame from when you did 15 team parlays and betting on the defeated unhealthy wizzards in the playoffs ............. nice coming around your maturing rather quickly as a capper ........... but to tell you the truth your ego is running far past your progress on handicapping (think about it) but anyway good job though so far on the new patty

come on now, thats funny as shit!

[BeatTheJerk]