boys, here's a solid gambling tip..

[Nicky Santoro]

Boys, i swear to you, i've been doing this for awhile, and it works like a charm. I PROMISE IF YOU STICK TO THIS.. YOU WILL TAKE THE MONEY IN THE VERY LONG RUN..

Try this..

Tonight for example, BOS opened up at bookmaker at -180.. it closed there at BOS -235.. now pay attention.. here's the trick.. of course i knew that at game time, the public would be betting BOS, so i waited till game time. and it kept on moving up and up and up just before game time, and of course, i took the other side and it won...


Here is the trick, on big favs like BOS and NYY at home especially, or NE, or DAL, in NFL.. 97% of the time, the steam will pour in on the big teams just before game time. so just wait till 5 min before game time and pound away the other side, if you like the dog. dont bet these dogs too early, you will cost yourself $$.

tonight in my opinion, BOS -180 was the accurate line, NOT Bos -235.. it only went to -235 because of the public betting on BOS.

look at the CFL game i bet (my dream one).. it opened up at 51... i knew the public would be all over the over.. so you wait wait wait,, goes to 55.5.. and pound the under.. the real line was 51.. the only reason it went to 55.5 was because a lot of squares were pounding the over.


now you guys can do this on big home favs of over -210.. 90% of the time, at game time, it will move up like nuts, so if you want to bet dog, wait.. wait wait till game time,.. you will get best price..


this works like a charm, trust me. you cant go wrong betting against the public. just look what happened to Lakers.. every game in that series, the line moved crazily on the lakers and they got blown out almost every game.

when you see a game being pounded minutes to start time, wait, and take opposite. you will make money in the long run..

and bet with matchy too.. you need them.

so if you want a big dog vs a BOS or NYY team, and they are at home over -210 to -240, wait till game time and you will get best price. (92% of the time)

[SBR Lou]

Good points. I'm not a big believer in blindly betting against the public, but if you are in a situation where it's reasonable to believe they'll pour in on one side, definitely makes more sense to wait till game time to bet.

[rake922]

Obvious points... who would have bet the Orioles today early in the morning.....

If one likes a high profile fav they bet them as soon as possible.. Dogs: They wait

[freeVICK]

nice call nicky. i got burned today and i fell for the boston trap

[treece]

What about the Cubbies tommorow? That line can't get any higher can it?

[Nicky Santoro]

although i didn't mention one important thing.. this works like a charm when it's a nationally televised game on ESPN sunday game of the week, when BOS is -210, 1 hr before game time. i will guarantee you that it will close at BOS -225, minimum. so if you want dog, bet it at 755 pm est.. not 6 pm est. all the squares who are sitting home watching this game will pour on BOS -210 and up.. i doubt you will see anyone betting dog at +200.. the general public will bet the fav. and they love their big name teams, like Redsox, Yankees, Lakers, Pats, Cowboys.


BOS could open at -230, but 2 hrs before game time, they can be BOS -210.. because the sharp players were betting the dog all day, but now if you want to bet the dog, dont bet it yet. wait till game time, cause the squares will push it back up to -230 or higher in the final 1 hr.

another example. NE PATS open up -340 on ml at home during the week. it's 1 hr before game time, and they are now NE -300.. i guarantee you in the next hr (91%, they go up to -340 again. especially if it's nationally televised game, like SUN night or mon night..

last 10 min is best time to bet dogs vs big name teams..you will get best price.

i hope i wasn't too confusing at the end.

[Nicky Santoro]

What about the Cubbies tommorow? That line can't get any higher can it?

if you look, already cubbies have gone up.. they opened at -240, so lets see what happens..


rich harden is pitching and i am sure line will go up by game time. watch and see where it closes.


cubs are a very popular team this year.. but the only probelm for tmoorrow is that it's not televised on WGN.. too bad.. but it should still go up, but probably not as much as it would if it was a nationally televised game... so if you want dog, i'd wait.. if you want fav, start now..

barring a late scatch, i dont see how the cubs won't climb. i can see them closing at -260 and up.. maybe even -280..or even higher.

[pico]

NCAA FB championship between texas and USC. right before the game, ML moved a lot for texas. USC was -400 ml favorite

[Nicky Santoro]

are you guys watching this cubs line go up like a mother f-cker?? dont say i didn't warn you.. in the last 3 min, pinny has moved it like 15 cents


if this game was played on Sun night espn, it'd be -300 by now..

still climbing..

[fiveteamer]

I think the Dodgers will fall into this category. Bottom line, they are
a .500 team, I think the Cards were home dogs in every game this series. Figure that one out.

[Tsoprano]

I pounded the Red Sox @ -165 10 minutes before game time

[accuscoresucks]

I pounded the Red Sox @ -165 10 minutes before game time

today damn that line moved,i thought it topped at -148




nicky great advice pal nicky i watched the movie EASY MONEY yesterday i was laughing my azz off rodney d was the best

great advice on the lines 2 nicky paper trading,and movement is a great great beginners way
money management has to be top priority also

[pat venditto]

The public doesn't lose because they can't pick winners. The public loses because of greed and risking too much per bet. Also tilt that affects your decisions makes the public lose.

[sofun]

good points Nicky. I like that

[Nicky Santoro]

accu,
i am happy you saw the movie. it is my fav of all time because it is basically the life of 58% of all sbr posters. he's a gambling degenerate, he's overweight, he eats bad food, he's lazy, he's trying to lose weight.. and he loves women..

we can all relate to most of this.. i love rodney in this movie..

boys, follow this rule. if you see a big team at home like Yankees, Red Sox, Pats, etc... and you like other side, wait till game time and you will get an avg of 20 cents more than opening line, if not more..

[SBR_John]

The public doesn't lose because they can't pick winners. The public loses because of greed and risking too much per bet. Also tilt that affects your decisions makes the public lose.

And they lose because they are not betting good lines. No one will ever be good enough to cap a winner and then lay -235 when the true line is -180 and come out ahead in the long run.

[Nicky Santoro]

boys, take a look at this.. this post says it all.. Johan Santana pitching for the Mets this afternoon, and it's not even a game of the week game on ESPN.. it's a freakin thurs afternoon game when everyone's working..


Look at Pinnacle's line move on this game.. In 3 hrs, it moved 35 cents.. and 20 cents in the last 20 min.. that's a lot for an 8 cent line book like pinny..


08/07/2008 8:48AM: +222 / -240
08/07/2008 9:35AM: +230 / -250
08/07/2008 11:46AM: +236 / -256
08/07/2008 11:46AM: +240 / -260
08/07/2008 11:46AM: +237 / -257
08/07/2008 11:47AM: +236 / -256
08/07/2008 11:50AM: +240 / -260
08/07/2008 11:52AM: +241 / -261
08/07/2008 11:59AM: +245 / -265
08/07/2008 12:04PM: +250 / -270
08/07/2008 12:05PM: +255 / -275
08/07/2008 12:06PM: +249 / -269
08/07/2008 12:06PM: +250 / -270
08/07/2008 12:06PM: +245 / -265
08/07/2008 12:07PM: +250 / -270
08/07/2008 12:10PM: +255 / -275

[durito]

Pinnacle doesn't move like that on public money. They move on sharp money.

[Nicky Santoro]

Pinnacle doesn't move like that on public money. They move on sharp money.

it's not just pinny that moved it.. that line opened up at -240 and closed at -290 at CRIS.. even more than pinny.. you are telling me the books were off on this game by 50 cents? lol


my point i am trying to make here is to tell everyone that if they want to bet a big dog like SD today vs a pitcher like Santana, that they should wait till game time.. 96.3% of the time, they will get a better #. instead of getting +200, they could have gotten +255.. that's 55 cents more..

[Shark79]

THanks for the advice Nicky!

[Nicky Santoro]

boys, like i said, i dont come in here to sbr to hear myself talk.. i told you that if you want to bet dogs vs CUBS on ESPN sunday game of the week, wait till the end..

look at this movement on CUBS in the last 2 hrs.. 99% of the time, it is like this. i hope you didn't bet cards this afternoon.. it's a fukkin joke how the cubs lines always move big time before game time.. and it's not because the line is off, or the cubs is the sharper side.. it's the cubs lovers squares moving this line now..

08/10/2008 4:54PM: +132 / -140
08/10/2008 5:09PM: +133 / -141
08/10/2008 5:53PM: +137 / -145
08/10/2008 6:02PM: +138 / -146
08/10/2008 6:11PM: +140 / -148
08/10/2008 6:11PM: +142 / -150
08/10/2008 6:36PM: +141 / -149
08/10/2008 6:41PM: +142 / -150
08/10/2008 6:42PM: +146 / -154
08/10/2008 6:49PM: +145 / -153
08/10/2008 7:15PM: +147 / -155
08/10/2008 7:18PM: +149 / -157
08/10/2008 7:18PM: +148 / -156
08/10/2008 7:19PM: +149 / -157
08/10/2008 7:23PM: +150 / -158
08/10/2008 7:27PM: +151 / -159
08/10/2008 7:28PM: +149 / -157

[jjgold]

Nicky your a pro, I do not have time to look at all the numbers, ect

Nicky I just bet Cubs -170

[Cloak & Dagger]

boys, like i said, i dont come in here to sbr to hear myself talk.. i told you that if you want to bet dogs vs CUBS on ESPN sunday game of the week, wait till the end..

look at this movement on CUBS in the last 2 hrs.. 99% of the time, it is like this. i hope you didn't bet cards this afternoon.. it's a fukkin joke how the cubs lines always move big time before game time.. and it's not because the line is off, or the cubs is the sharper side.. it's the cubs lovers squares moving this line now..

08/10/2008 4:54PM: +132 / -140
08/10/2008 5:09PM: +133 / -141
08/10/2008 5:53PM: +137 / -145
08/10/2008 6:02PM: +138 / -146
08/10/2008 6:11PM: +140 / -148
08/10/2008 6:11PM: +142 / -150
08/10/2008 6:36PM: +141 / -149
08/10/2008 6:41PM: +142 / -150
08/10/2008 6:42PM: +146 / -154
08/10/2008 6:49PM: +145 / -153
08/10/2008 7:15PM: +147 / -155
08/10/2008 7:18PM: +149 / -157
08/10/2008 7:18PM: +148 / -156
08/10/2008 7:19PM: +149 / -157
08/10/2008 7:23PM: +150 / -158
08/10/2008 7:27PM: +151 / -159
08/10/2008 7:28PM: +149 / -157

betting against chris carpenter??

is he hurt???

[Nicky Santoro]

i guess everyone doesn't care if it's carpenter, or schmarpenter, as long as they're on the cubs, that's all that matters.

jjcole, you showed a vid last week with you looking at the screen, and you were like a pro.. i was impressed. you were so well equipped and you looked like a pro. you're even better than me at this.. so why the hell are you taking cubs -170 for? you shouldnt be laying anything over -157 on that game now. come on jjcole, every dollar helps in this business.. it's a difference of going broke one day or not.. jj cole, the way my streak has gone bad recently, if i laid your #'s, i'd have been on the street today. the only reason i am still here and alive is because i dont have stl +130 in this game and will have it at +165.. might not win, but i got a good price. shop shop shop jj cole. you have no excuse not to. it's not like you're a very busy man.

[Cloak & Dagger]

i guess everyone doesn't care if it's carpenter, or schmarpenter, as long as they're on the cubs, that's all that matters.

jjcole, you showed a vid last week with you looking at the screen, and you were like a pro.. i was impressed. you were so well equipped and you looked like a pro. you're even better than me at this.. so why the hell are you taking cubs -170 for? you shouldnt be laying anything over -157 on that game now. come on jjcole, every dollar helps in this business.. it's a difference of going broke one day or not.. jj cole, the way my streak has gone bad recently, if i laid your #'s, i'd have been on the street today. the only reason i am still here and alive is because i dont have stl +130 in this game and will have it at +165.. might not win, but i got a good price. shop shop shop jj cole. you have no excuse not to. it's not like you're a very busy man.

well those same people shouldnt be betting baseball

[Nicky Santoro]

last SUN night, i showed you how the CUBS moved 40 cents or so by game time..

take a look at this Philly game. Boys, this happens like clock work on the SUN espn game of the week.. i bet the phillies very early this morning at -175, cause we all know that by game time, the fav goes up crazily.. remember, if you want fav on ESPN game of week, play it early.. and if you want dog, play it late.

check this pinny movement today on phils..

no big surprise. same every sunday night. look how it moved 23 cents on the fav in the last HR..

i keep telling you boys, the public loves betting the favs on the nationally televised games.



08/17/2008 3:39AM: -174 / +166
08/17/2008 9:39AM: -180 / +172
08/17/2008 12:10PM: -183 / +175
08/17/2008 12:27PM: -187 / +179
08/17/2008 12:27PM: -191 / +180
08/17/2008 2:10PM: -193 / +182
08/17/2008 5:35PM: -196 / +183
08/17/2008 6:05PM: -199 / +186
08/17/2008 6:05PM: -201 / +185
08/17/2008 6:22PM: -214 / +196
08/17/2008 6:57PM: -219 / +201

[betplom]

remember, if you want fav on ESPN game of week, play it early.. and if you want dog, play it late.

i keep telling you boys, the public loves betting the favs on the nationally televised games.

Thanks for the tip, but anyone that has experience already knows this, good advice for the newbies.