Nicky...do you see what I see?

Nicky Santoro · 07-11-08, 09:28 PM

Originally posted by Panic

If Boston loses tonight(very likely), Rake better start worrying about this weekend. Get the clippers ready. Looks like somebody is shaving their head. What's the chances Boston goes 2-0 this weekend?

THIS RAKEY STILL THINKS THERE IS SUCH THING AS A SURE THING IN BASEBALL. I WARNED HIM.. HE ACTS LIKE A SQUARE.. GET READY TO SEE HIS HEAD SHAVEN.. I CANT WAIT.

DONT BE SURPRISED IF BALTY SWEEP THEM.

THAT LINE WAS WAY OVERPRICED. BALTY IS A GOOD TEAM..

SORRY RAKEY, BUT YOU HAD NO RIGHT DOING THIS.. BALTY WAS THE PLAY HERE.

I HATE DOING THIS AFTER THE GAME IS OVER, AND I NEVER DID EVER, BUT THIS TIME, I FEEL I SHOULD.

AT +212, IT WAS STEALING.

Ticket Accepted Event Date Type Description Risking to Win
124920868-1
1 4:01pm 11-Jul-08 4:05pm 11-Jul-08 Baseball
Money Line Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox for Game +212 XXXX XXXX

InTheHole · 07-11-08, 09:30 PM

Looks like you got Matchy odds!

Panic · 07-11-08, 09:30 PM

Nicky, you are in a great position. Wakefield is due for a bad game. This doesnt bode well for Rake.

rake922 · 07-11-08, 09:34 PM

bases are loaded for boston

gordon gekko · 07-11-08, 09:37 PM

Originally posted by rake922

bases are loaded for boston

Game over O's win.

Panic · 07-11-08, 09:37 PM

Not anymore, Rake.

rake922 · 07-11-08, 09:40 PM

ok now 2 questions

1. What's the probability I lose the prop with Nicky
2. What's the probability I win the prop with Nicky

Nicky Santoro · 07-11-08, 09:44 PM

Originally posted by rake922

ok now 2 questions

1. What's the probability I lose the prop with Nicky
2. What's the probability I win the prop with Nicky

HERE YOU GO, RAKEY..

ASSUMING THE BOSOX WILL BE ROUGHLY A -200 FAV IN EACH GAME..

BOS TO WIN BOTH (.64X.64) = 41%
BOS TO SPLIT 46%
BOS TO LOSE BOTH 13%.

SO YOU NEED BOS TO WIN BOTH, SO THEREFORE, YOU HAVE A 41% CHANCE OF DOING THIS.. NOT OVER YET, BUT YOU'RE A DOG NOW.

Panic · 07-11-08, 09:46 PM

I'd say, you're still heavily favored, Rake. You're still in the driver seat. The only problem is Wakefield has lost 3 out of his last 4 games and looks vulnerable.

Panic · 07-11-08, 09:46 PM

Originally posted by Nicky Santauro

HERE YOU GO, RAKEY..

ASSUMING THE BOSOX WILL BE ROUGHLY A -200 FAV IN EACH GAME..

BOS TO WIN BOTH (.64X.64) = 41%
BOS TO SPLIT 46%
BOS TO LOSE BOTH 13%.

SO YOU NEED BOS TO WIN BOTH, SO THEREFORE, YOU HAVE A 41% CHANCE OF DOING THIS.. NOT OVER YET, BUT YOU'RE A DOG NOW.

No way Boston is a 200 fav in next game, the way Wakefield has been pitching.

rake922 · 07-11-08, 09:48 PM

Wakefield has been bad? what are you smokin?

Bos is -191 at pinnacle as of now

Nicky Santoro · 07-11-08, 09:49 PM

So Basically, You Have A 41% Chance At Still Winning..

Or, If You Want Me To Put It In Gambling Language...

Will Rakey Win This Bet?

No -165
Yes +155

topgame85 · 07-11-08, 09:49 PM

Boston will not get swept as Baltimore is on a 13 game Sunday losing streak bet that trend with your life boys!

Panic · 07-11-08, 09:53 PM

Originally posted by rake922

Wakefield has been bad? what are you smokin?

Bos is -191 at pinnacle as of now

LOL. I'm sorry what's that, Rake? Boston was -225 tonight at gametime. How'd that workout? Now you want to try to act like I dont know what I'm talking about..and bring up an over inflated line on Wakefield at -191 when he has lost 3 out of his last 4 games?

Okay, pal. Take Boston again. See what happens.

Nicky Santoro · 07-11-08, 09:55 PM

Panic · 07-11-08, 09:56 PM

I do believe you have this, Nicky.

Nicky Santoro · 07-11-08, 10:00 PM

far from over, but if this guy loses, he deserves to shave his head..

1- he was making it sound like free money and impossible to happen..

2- he didn't bet a -125 fav here. he would go down with a -300 fav.. so he deserves to lose if you cant win a -300 bet

rakey, i wont rub it in anymore, it's not nice, because you probably lost money tonight on it. sorry man.. and even then, you're only a +155 dog, that's it.. not like you're a +230 dog.. good luck, far from over.

Panic · 07-11-08, 10:07 PM

You're to nice, Nicky.

Nicky Santoro · 07-11-08, 10:13 PM

Panic · 07-11-08, 10:14 PM

FVCK!

hackattack · 07-11-08, 10:16 PM

rake922 · 07-12-08, 10:46 PM

now what?

Is that line off in anybody opinion?
8.88 ERA for Daniel Cabrera when pitching at Fenway Park over 5 starts in his career

The Orioles are 1-13 while playing on Sundays.. They have lost 13 straight while playing on Sundays

Nicky Santoro · 07-12-08, 10:51 PM

good job, i was actually pulling for you today and i didn't care about the shave your head thing, because i was on bos..

well, it all comes down to tomorrow.. you now have about a 67% chance of not shaving your head..

good luck..

Richkas · 07-12-08, 11:51 PM

"DONT BE SURPRISED IF BALTY SWEEP THEM."

Nicky Santoro · 07-13-08, 12:16 PM

well rakey, i figure now i i will be a winner for sure after this red sox game. i need the red sox again today, so i am pulling for you not to have to shave your head..

so i am a winner both ways.

IF bos win, i win money

IF bos lose, i get to see you shave your head on camera..

not a bad situation to be in..

but i will take a bos win anyday over you shaving your head.

good luck to both of us.

flyingillini · 07-13-08, 12:18 PM

Originally posted by Nicky Santauro

**** Purdue!!!

Patrick McIrish · 07-13-08, 12:25 PM

Surprised you laid the juice Nicky on Boston, they probably win but very expensive. Under lean but just stayed off the entire game.

Nicky Santoro · 07-13-08, 12:29 PM

patty, i got a great price on it.. i got -180 on it.. i couldn't let it go..

patty, that line is -205 at CRIS. i dont have an opinion on it, but i have to play the good #.. i play percentages only, because i cant handicap this crap..

Panic · 07-13-08, 12:32 PM

Matchbook has Boston at a good price right now of -183.

Patrick McIrish · 07-13-08, 12:37 PM

Oh okay, lot of value there, don't blame you.

Nicky Santoro · 07-13-08, 12:40 PM

patty, if i started picking games based on who i thought would win, better pitcher, home record, etc.. i'd be flat broke. patty, i tried this 20 yrs ago and i went broke 3 times.. i had to get 3 jobs to pay off bookie.. patty, i can't even pick my nose..

it's too tough this stuff. bos can easily win today 14-2, and they can easily lose 9-3.. how the f-ck do i know what's going to happen. no one knows whats going to happen. so i just play the weak line and at the end, i hope to be ahead. patty it's the only way i do it..

Patrick McIrish · 07-13-08, 12:48 PM

I hear you, only time I could beat this game was when I was the one answering phones, LOL. I still "cap" games from time to time but mostly hit sleepy outs and play the weak numbers. I can't bet into -110 and beat anybody in any sport based on capping games.

Nicky Santoro · 07-13-08, 12:53 PM

Originally posted by Patrick McIrish

I can't bet into -110 and beat anybody in any sport based on capping games.

patty, you think you're alone?? no one in the world can win capping -110.. NO ONE.. not one person has a remote chance of coming up ahead over the long haul..

you have a better chance at being hit by lightning 4 times.. patty, if you are betting into the real line at -110, and have no edge, you have a 0% chance of making money..

and i dont care if anyone tells me they are up betting -110, they are lying, or they haven't gambled long enough yet.

Patrick McIrish · 07-13-08, 01:07 PM

Originally posted by Nicky Santauro

patty, if you are betting into the real line at -110, and have no edge, you have a 0% chance of making money..

Of course. That's the problem though for a lot of folks, they really do think they have an edge that is going to make them hit the almost 53% they need to win at -110, LOL. We know better.

Can't believe it took me so long to figure out who you are.