which bet you think has a higher chance of winning

[pico]

both heavy chalks, just wondering what is the concensus


yankees +1.5

or

boston ML

[pat venditto]

yankees.

[gordon gekko]

I am a yankees fan but I would say Boston with Halladay pitching tonight.

[daggerkobe]

I like the O's to win outright so Yanks RL.

[Nicky Santoro]

bos to win is exactly 67%.

nyy RL +1.5.. exactly 66%


so bos to win by only 1% more.. i am going by odds.. bos is -215, NYY rl is -210.

[rcn848]

bos to win is exactly 67%.

nyy RL +1.5.. exactly 66%


so bos to win by only 1% more.. i am going by odds.. bos is -215, NYY rl is -210.

the pinnacle implied win % for boston at -215 (-215/197) is 66.96%

the pinnacle implied win % for new york at -210 (-210/190) is 66.27%

[pico]

bos to win is exactly 67%.

nyy RL +1.5.. exactly 66%


so bos to win by only 1% more.. i am going by odds.. bos is -215, NYY rl is -210.

[Nicky Santoro]

the pinnacle implied win % for boston at -215 (-215/197) is 66.96%

the pinnacle implied win % for new york at -210 (-210/190) is 66.27%

so i was right on the money.. i was within .04% of it. and i did this in my head too.. no looking up the info or using a calculator.. i swear to you..

btw, where do you see this pinny win %.. i'd love to see it. never saw it before.

[rcn848]

just do the math

fav no juice % = -fav/(100-fav) for NY = 67.74%
dog = 100/ (100+dog) = 34.48%

implied win %= p(f)/(p(f)+p(d))

67.74/(67.74+34.48) = 66.27%

[Nicky Santoro]

just do the math

fav no juice % = -fav/(100-fav) for NY = 67.74%
dog = 100/ (100+dog) = 34.48%

implied win %= p(f)/(p(f)+p(d))

67.74/(67.74+34.48) = 66.27%

i dont need to do the math like you and ganch and the rest. i just look at the line and can tell you in 1.3 seconds what the win% is. i can do it in my head and come within a 1/4%.. i hate doing math problems. i have done this so long, that i can look at a line and tell you right away what it is.

i know the table by heart.. 25 yrs of gambling and bookmaking for 7 of the 25 yrs does this to you.. it's like i learnt a new language.. if i hang out with a greek guy for 25 yrs, and learn the language everyday for 25 yrs, i will be fluently greek. same thing here. Its in my blood now.

i am officially a gambling addict by now.

[pico]

http://www.sbrforum.com/Betting+Tools/Odds+Converter.aspx