What's the probability the Baltimore Orioles sweep the Boston Redsox this weekend?

[rake922]

I want numbers people...............................


3 game series begins tomorrow.....

[AgainstAllOdds]

10%

[Nicky Santoro]

well, tough to tell, because we need sat and sundays lines to know exact. but for friday, bos has EXACTLY a 63% chance of winning.. (-195+180) is 63%.. now we dont know who's pitching for sat and sun.. so lets assume the line will be the same for both.. -195/+180.. then it would be .37x.37x.37 =.05..


so basically, balt has roughly a 5% chance of sweeping the bosox in boston.

[rjt721]

I'd estimate roughly 4.5%.

[rjt721]

10%

Not nearly that high.

[Panic]

Nicky, Wakefield and Matsuzaka are pitching this weekend.

[gordon gekko]

0%

Boston 2 - 1

[Nicky Santoro]

Nicky, Wakefield and Matsuzaka are pitching this weekend.

but against who?? that's what's important.. i'd still say they will be about -200'ish in each game, and probably more and it will still be between 4-6% the odds of them getting swept.

[Stacocakes]

If they play the way they did against the Jays the last series, 0%

[AgainstAllOdds]

Not nearly that high.

Yea that was just a quick rough estimate...

But rake are you thinking about Martingaling the Bosox?

[pat venditto]

3% of the time

[Nicky Santoro]

martingale is the stupidest thing ever. it is a great way to destroy your season..and dont for one second think that a great team cannot get swept at home by a lousy team.. i've seen it maybe 75 times in my life.. i've seen teams with 100 loss seasons, play at teams with 100 season wins and blow them out 4 straight, NO JOKE. this is freakin baseball.. it happens all the freakin time..

it's the craziest sport in the world.

[Panic]

but against who?? that's what's important.. i'd still say they will be about -200'ish in each game, and probably more and it will still be between 4-6% the odds of them getting swept.

They'll be against Liz and Cabrera. Either way Boston will be heavy favorites.

[tab]

Boston is going to sweep Baltimore because Boston has something to play for. IF we take a look at the standing, Boston is 1.5 games behind Tampa. They are really going to put out the effort to sweep the Orioles this weekend. Redsox are not going to take the Orioles lightly as the Orioles have defeated the redsox 4 times this season. But those games were early in the season. If this was meaningless series in August or September and Boston was way up in standings in their division, only than Baltimore would have any chance of sweeping Boston. Its about midseason and I am sure Boston like to be first place by the allstar game. Baltimore will have score a lot of runs in this series. I say .00000009% or even worst than that. I would have better chance of winning the state lottery than to see Baltimore sweep boston.

[hinese]

The fact that you're asking the question means you have a problem. I've posted all sorts of online polls in the past asking for opinions. It just meant I had no clue which team to take but just had to have some action on it. Pass on this one and wait for something you feel strongly about, which really doesn't happen until football season.

[rake922]

martingale is the stupidest thing ever. it is a great way to destroy your season..and dont for one second think that a great team cannot get swept at home by a lousy team.. i've seen it maybe 75 times in my life.. i've seen teams with 100 loss seasons, play at teams with 100 season wins and blow them out 4 straight, NO JOKE. this is freakin baseball.. it happens all the freakin time..

it's the craziest sport in the world.

when? has it happened anytime this year?

[rcn848]

well, tough to tell, because we need sat and sundays lines to know exact. but for friday, bos has EXACTLY a 63% chance of winning.. (-195+180) is 63%.. now we dont know who's pitching for sat and sun.. so lets assume the line will be the same for both.. -195/+180.. then it would be .37x.37x.37 =.05..


so basically, balt has roughly a 5% chance of sweeping the bosox in boston.

the implied win % for -195/180 is:

64.92% and 35.08%

[rake922]

Just for the record Baltimore has never swept ANYBODY on the road this season....


Back in 2007 they swept the Royals in KC....


Boston has never been swept at fenyway in 2008 nor in 2007....

[HedgeHog]

More realistic to go for a Boston sweep. You'll get about 3-1 on this if Red Sox take all three.

[rake922]

Not only did Boston get yesterday off.. They also go Thursday Night off..

They played Thursday afternoon. No traveling at all for Boston, while Baltimore gets a beautiful demoralizing loss in a different country last night!

[rake922]

BOSTON is 16-2 (+12.6 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -150 to -200 this season

BOSTON is 21-4 (+12.9 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -150 or more this season.


BALTIMORE is 11-25 (-13.9 Units) against the money line after a game where their bullpen blew a save over the last 2 seasons.

[rake922]

The last time CLAY BUCHHOLZ started a game vs Baltimore, he threw a no hitter

[Nicky Santoro]

BOSTON is 16-2 (+12.6 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -150 to -200 this season

BOSTON is 21-4 (+12.9 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -150 or more this season.


BALTIMORE is 11-25 (-13.9 Units) against the money line after a game where their bullpen blew a save over the last 2 seasons.

stats, shmats, rakey, when you going to realize that stats in gambling means sht.. absolutely sht.. rakey, you think the oddsmakers dont know all this. rakey, there is a lot of research put into these lines before they put them out. rakey, the line is already applied into it. why do you think the line is -210 for?

It's not that easy rakey.. rakey, Just to show you how tough it is, sure bos should win, but did you know that if you bet BOS every game this series, you better hope they sweep the 3 games, cause if they dont, you LOSE money..

So basically, the only way you make any $$ is if bos sweeps. or else you lose money.


Is that a good deal? rakey, dont try handicapping this crap, cause you WILL lose, mark my words rakey. rakey, the more you know about this sht, the less successful you will be, trust me on this. i have seen it all in my life.

rakey, i know guys that know every stat you can ever know, every player, everything you can think of. and they are all broke and coudln't ever hit 50%..

just bet best # out there and dont care who you take and you will win at the end. If a book tonight gives you BALT +215, take balt, and at the end, you will be a winner. forget trying to handicap this sht. no one can.

[rcn848]

Red Sox are -300 (240) to win the series at the greek.

[pavyracer]

0%

[Nicky Santoro]

Red Sox are -300 (240) to win the series at the greek.

here is the perfect example why gamblers lose.

i just calculated the real line for Bos winning the series. and based on the lines for the 3 games, the true line is Bos -260/+260 to win series.

so OLY has it -300/+240.. they are laughing at you all. if you take BALT, you are still getting only +240, when you should be getting +260.. IF you take BOS, which most will, then you are laying 300, instead of -260, ouch... so both ways, you lose over the long haul..


that's why it's tough to make money handicapping this shit, because you are ALWAYS giving the house juice, whether you win or lose and at the end, you CANNOT recover this juice. it's IMPOSSIBLE to overcome.

[ryanXL977]

0%
just got back from toronto and saw al 3 games
they have no pen
none
they can hit, but they have zero pen

poor bastards

[rake922]

The Orioles have about the same odds of sweeping Boston as Pedro Martinez has playing and winning a game of 1 on 1 vs Lebron James

[Nicky Santoro]

The Orioles have about the same odds of sweeping Boston as Pedro Martinez has playing and winning a game of 1 on 1 vs Lebron James

don't be surprised if Pedro comes out strong vs Lebron. anything can happen.. have you ever seen Pedro's jumper? i have and have seen him hit 16 in a row once.. and he's a great rebounder too. he can jump 4 feet and he's fast as lightning.


btw, if you do martingale, you'd be nuts..


game 1, 100 to lose 210 (if lose)
game 2, 310 to lose 650 (if lose)
game 3, 960 to lose 2300


so if you think risking 3160 to win 100 is a good bet, good luck rakey..


3160 to win 100.. laying close to -3200 to hope they dont get swept. YOU ARE NUTS. and dont think it's not possible this could happen.. cause you are wrong.

[rcn848]

I'll give you NO sweep for -3000

[EddieJones]

Watch the Orioles will sweep now.

[Nicky Santoro]

i'll give you NO sweep for -2995..

[ryanXL977]

red sox will sweep
home vs a team with zero pen

[rake922]

don't be surprised if Pedro comes out strong vs Lebron. anything can happen.. have you ever seen Pedro's jumper? i have and have seen him hit 16 in a row once.. and he's a great rebounder too. he can jump 4 feet and he's fast as lightning.


btw, if you do martingale, you'd be nuts..


game 1, 100 to lose 210 (if lose)
game 2, 310 to lose 650 (if lose)
game 3, 960 to lose 2300


so if you think risking 3160 to win 100 is a good bet, good luck rakey..


3160 to win 100.. laying close to -3200 to hope they dont get swept. YOU ARE NUTS. and dont think it's not possible this could happen.. cause you are wrong.

The redsox will win AT LEAST 2 of 3.... if they don't I will shave my head .. I'll post before and after pictures and will be holding a sign "Santauro was right" in both of the photos

[Nicky Santoro]

The redsox will win AT LEAST 2 of 3.... if they don't I will shave my head .. I'll post before and after pictures and will be holding a sign "Santauro was right" in both of the photos

it's no big prediction here. they are -300 at OLY to win at least 2 of 3. but if you made a prediction like saying BALT would win 2 of 3 in boston, then i'd be giving you a




but it's still a deal, if bos lose 2 of 3, you shave head and put up the sign. i will hold you against it. dont be surprised if they do lose 2 of 3.. this is baseball.. no such thing as a sure thing.