Aussies rules Finals week 1

[astrobloke]

Can understand your reasoning kingsr, good luck with your bets mates. They look solid.

[Bbr]

I think ill lay this week off. Save my bills for the gf... and go massive just cos i can =D The one day of the year when MM doesnt matter

[Bbr]

Last nights game must've been demoralizing for the hawks. They brought their A-game last night and just fell short. On the up-side I hedged my future bet on the hawks with a nice live bet

Geelong should be rolling today.

[Domestic]

Yes I got a crappy line for Geelong but hopefully it doesn't matter.

[TwoWays]

Knew Hawks would definitely cover. They had a great chance to win outright, grrrrr.

[astrobloke]

I think ill lay this week off. Save my bills for the gf... and go massive just cos i can =D The one day of the year when MM doesnt matter

Soon as you said Girl friend in your comment I thought....christ! you must have big bills.

Quote: Girls dont like boys, girls like cars and money!!! - (band) Good charlette

[Bbr]

Soon as you said Girl friend in your comment I thought....christ! you must have big bills.

Quote: Girls dont like boys, girls like cars and money!!! - (band) Good charlette

Hahaha you can put it into that context if you like but I was referring to the Grand Final.

[Bbr]

Brownlow medal in 5 mins.
Marc Murphy Top 5 -110 my only play

[Bbr]

Leaning collingwood for the big one this week.
On another note, any love for the NZ warriors?? I'm leaning warriors + 6 but will probably wait as I can see this line increasing. SO many people taking manly early?

[kingsr]

Geelong + Manly for me.

Geelong is the in-form team coming into this final. They have peaked at the right time.
Manly doesnt need much explaining. Plenty of seasoned campaigners who have done finals before. Warrior played their final against Melb.

[benrama]

Same for me Kingsr, though I hate making big plays in grand finals as it spoils the viewing, I will likely be on the U15.5 points line (either team) on Pinny at $2.80 for the AFL GF - then I can just cheer for a close game.

For NRL can't see any way the Warriors win.

[kingsr]

It's worthy to note that only 2 NRL grand finals out of 13 since Superleague, have resulted in a margin of 6 points or less.

Manly by 10+

[donkson]

Looks like I'm the only one in the world getting on the Pies.

[Bbr]

Looks like I'm the only one in the world getting on the Pies.

I will most likely be on the pies

[kingsr]

Looks like I'm the only one in the world getting on the Pies.

I'm hoping there's more people who like the Pies...all the money seems to be on Gee! I want it to even up a little before kick off! I'm not comfortable with all punters jumping on the Gee bandwagon.

I have Gee/Manly @ $11 from a couple weeks ago. I also have 4 units @ $3 I did a few days ago. GL

[TwoWays]

Yeah, keep believing in the Pies. They are no match for the Cats this year.

[benrama]

Pies absolutely can win this, they should've have won their first clash this season, and they have all the talent to get the job done. Just feels like the Cats are firing at 100% right now, whereas the Pies have troubles with Dawes (still rusty), Thomas (suspension lay-off has hurt him), Beams/Wellingham (WTF where they doing on the weekend??) and just don't have the flow to their game they had earlier in the season. Even Pendlebury seemed off against the Hawks.

Malthouse having his last coaching game with them will emotionally lift them but I see the Cats winning this one in <10 point game thriller.

[maroona]

Looks like I'm the only one in the world getting on the Pies.

I'm on them too mate, and $2.11 on Pinnacle is great value, never thought I'd see that sort of price

[Gee]

The grand final is one game that I don't care who the public is on, although i would be surprised if Geelong don't close up much shorter. No need for any analysis - we've all been watching the last 27 weeks and know where each team is at. It'll be close, but Cats are playing much better footy over the last 5 weeks.

I had 3x on them at -113 at pinny when it opened and its gone to -3.5, -123 ML now. Centrebet is about -132 I may add to this bet, but will probably just conserve my season winnings. I'd keep waiting until game day if you want the pies.

[IDunno89]

Same for me Kingsr, though I hate making big plays in grand finals as it spoils the viewing, I will likely be on the U15.5 points line (either team) on Pinny at $2.80 for the AFL GF - then I can just cheer for a close game.

For NRL can't see any way the Warriors win.

Wash your mouth out

[s2230011]

I give the warriors more of a chance of winning than last week !! I didnt rate the warriors from day 1 of the finals ... after the brisbane game I thought they were finished and felt they were just satisfied to get this far. After the Tigers game I felt maybe the Tigers let them slip, but against Melbourne they played good finals footy. Which is something Manly hasnt had to do yet ... Manly are favourites and the better team, but the Warriors are in a perfect position to take them down. They are in all three grades and they will have good support throughout ... I am not decided yet but Manly wont get this easy

[kingsr]

Raining heavily in Melb....if it keeps up it will make Geelong's task easier.

[Bbr]

Beams out. Fasolo in. Beams has not been playing very well during this final series. I like this Fasolo kid, kicks goals and has a little bit of A. Didak about him. Not a really significant change regardless.

The big worry for the pies is Jolly. Even if he plays will he be limited with that groin injury? Will he be 100%. If not, Ottens could portray complete dominance around the ground. Would this make ottens a possible normsmith candidate if the cats get up?

S. Johnson....They say he will play. If bomber thompson was coaching he would definitely play. However, with Scott I am not sure if he is the type of coach who would risk a player who is not completely 100% fit. There is no way in hell SJ will be 100%. Time will tell.

I expect this game to be riddled with momentumn shifts. Two plays I am really sizing up are:
HT/FT

Geelong/Collingwood
Collingwood/Geelong

Both are paying around +650 - A unit each way and regardless of who wins at the end, you have made yourself 4 units. Food for thought.

[kingsr]

Don't mind those HT Fulltime bets at all. Was looking at that earlier.

[Gee]

. Two plays I am really sizing up are: HT/FT Geelong/Collingwood Collingwood/Geelong Both are paying around +650 - A unit each way and regardless of who wins at the end, you have made yourself 4 units. Food for thought.

I just looked into this briefly. I don't mind it. You would actually win 5.5 units. 1 unit to win 6.5 then another unit on the lost bet. After a look at the history of these teams, I don't think its a bad bet. I have my views on these prop bets though (if i bet them, they lose ), so i tend to stick to sides and totals. I doubt I'll have a dabble at this, but good luck. Hopefully its your Pies/Cats leg that wins!

[Bbr]

I just looked into this briefly. I don't mind it. You would actually win 5.5 units. 1 unit to win 6.5 then another unit on the lost bet. After a look at the history of these teams, I don't think its a bad bet. I have my views on these prop bets though (if i bet them, they lose ), so i tend to stick to sides and totals. I doubt I'll have a dabble at this, but good luck. Hopefully its your Pies/Cats leg that wins!

haha! I like the pies so i might place $50 on cats/pies then $25 on pies/cats =DD. Profit either way!

[Aussiecapper101]

Collingwood for me boys. They'll have enough to pull this one out and especially early I think they will suprise geeling a little bit.

Oh and I'm an essendon supporter so definitely no bias here :-)

[kingsr]

Not profit if it goes Gee/Gee or Pies/Pies or Draw/Pies Draw/Gee.

It's a gamble but has a decent chance of hitting as I'm sure the lead may change a few times during the match.

[Aussiecapper101]

Forgot to mention that if u compare what u could call x factor players then Menzel and Fasolo come to mind.. With Menzel being out and Fasolo coming back in I could see this as another edge for collingwood

Just my opinion

[Gee]

Not profit if it goes Gee/Gee or Pies/Pies or Draw/Pies Draw/Gee.

It's a gamble but has a decent chance of hitting as I'm sure the lead may change a few times during the match.

No, I looked at that. I didn't think it was free money It is why you are effectively getting +550 on the prop, but it looks like a decent spot at the odds. That being said, I still won't be on it.

[kingsr]

Gee, I was referring to Bbr's comment.

[Gee]

Gotcha, all the friggin gee's right now with the cats playing is getting me confused. Keep thinking people are talking to me!

[kingsr]

Gotcha, all the friggin gee's right now with the cats playing is getting me confused. Keep thinking people are talking to me!

Gee on the brain!

[ACoochy]

Both matches should be crackers of gamees boys...5 units Cats -3.5 and 1 unit Cats -17.5 here. GL good pplz

[benrama]

Beams out and Fasolo in is 100% the right decision, I'd get Wellingham the fk out of there too, he's looked lost in finals football.