A tool that I believe made the difference in my success last year is that I categorized all 32 teams into 5 different categories: Powerhouse, good, middle of the road, not so good, and dogs. This list was never meant to be cut in stone, just a reference guide to help me to decide what match-ups to take by finding the teams that are slipping "under the radar". For example, week 6 of last year the undefeated Patriots were facing the undefeated Cowboys. Being a novice handi-capper I did not feel it was a wise idea to bet on a game with 2 undefeated teams. Instead I found the Cleveland Browns vs the Miami Dolphins. The spread was only 4 points and the Browns were looking pretty good with Derek Anderson at the helm. I would have never found this game if I hadn't made this list.
I created my list from an article called NFL preview from USA today. It's a little early for such an article to be out this year, but I figured I would post my list and talk to you folks about your opinions and possibly make some adjustments to it. This list is currently based largely on last year so I am sure adjustments will be called for before week one gets underway.
Powerhouse:
New England Patriots
Dallas Cowboys
San Diego Chargers
Indianapolis Colts
New York Giants
Good:
Green Bay Packers
Pittsburgh Steelers
Phidelphia Eagles
Jacksonville Jaguars
Tennessee Titans
Cleveland Browns
Middle of the road:
Seattle Seahawks
Washington Redskins
Minnesota Vikings
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
New Orleans Saints
Arizona Cardinals
Houston Texans
Not so good:
Detroit Lions
Chicago Bears
Carolina Panthers
Denver Broncos
Cincinnati Bengals
Buffalo Bills
Dogs:
Miami Dolphins
Saint Louis Rams
Atlanta Falcons
Oakland Raiders
Kansas City Chiefs
New York Jets
Baltimore Ravens
San Francisco 49ers
Like I said, this list is largely based off from last year's results, so adjustment are probably called for on several of these teams.
Here are the teams that I am thinking of moving. I did not put the GB Packers on my powerhouse list because I am not sure about Aaron Rodgers. They have a lot of talent and are up and coming so I could bump them up very quickly. I have my eye on the MIN Vikings. I think teams will make adjustments to shut down their running game. If those adjusments work than MIN will just be average, if not MIN could be a real factor this year. I don't see them going to the Superbowl but I could see them giving the Packers a run for their money in winning the division. New Orleans has great potential if they can solve their defensive problems. The Giants are on the powerhouse list because they won the Superbowl. (damn them!!! lol)
I am torn on the Steelers. I think they are a good team but they just seemed to fall apart towards the end of the season last year. They were on my powerhouse list to start last year but slipped a couple of notches. I put them at good this year hoping that they straighten some of their problems out. If not, I'll bump them down again.
The dog list is entirely based off from last years performance at this point. These were the worst teams in the NFL. Many of these teams have made some good acquisitions in the draft and Miami now has Parcells as general manager, but is one year going to be enough to turn things around? Many of these teams have serious problems, like Carolina with their quarterback issues. I will be very interested to see how you guys weigh in on these teams.
My betting strategy is very simple: follow the dogs and look for bargains in the point spread. TB vs ATL in week 11 was a classic example. It didn't take a rocket scientist to know that the Falcons were going to get their butts kicked but everyone was paying attention to NE, DAL, and GB so this game slipped under the radar. The point spread was only 3 points!!! I'm not an expert on football, not even close. I am a stock trader and what I see here is classic value investing and short sale strategies. This list is key to finding those bargains. I'll be very interested to hear your opinions.
Mike
I created my list from an article called NFL preview from USA today. It's a little early for such an article to be out this year, but I figured I would post my list and talk to you folks about your opinions and possibly make some adjustments to it. This list is currently based largely on last year so I am sure adjustments will be called for before week one gets underway.
Powerhouse:
New England Patriots
Dallas Cowboys
San Diego Chargers
Indianapolis Colts
New York Giants
Good:
Green Bay Packers
Pittsburgh Steelers
Phidelphia Eagles
Jacksonville Jaguars
Tennessee Titans
Cleveland Browns
Middle of the road:
Seattle Seahawks
Washington Redskins
Minnesota Vikings
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
New Orleans Saints
Arizona Cardinals
Houston Texans
Not so good:
Detroit Lions
Chicago Bears
Carolina Panthers
Denver Broncos
Cincinnati Bengals
Buffalo Bills
Dogs:
Miami Dolphins
Saint Louis Rams
Atlanta Falcons
Oakland Raiders
Kansas City Chiefs
New York Jets
Baltimore Ravens
San Francisco 49ers
Like I said, this list is largely based off from last year's results, so adjustment are probably called for on several of these teams.
Here are the teams that I am thinking of moving. I did not put the GB Packers on my powerhouse list because I am not sure about Aaron Rodgers. They have a lot of talent and are up and coming so I could bump them up very quickly. I have my eye on the MIN Vikings. I think teams will make adjustments to shut down their running game. If those adjusments work than MIN will just be average, if not MIN could be a real factor this year. I don't see them going to the Superbowl but I could see them giving the Packers a run for their money in winning the division. New Orleans has great potential if they can solve their defensive problems. The Giants are on the powerhouse list because they won the Superbowl. (damn them!!! lol)
I am torn on the Steelers. I think they are a good team but they just seemed to fall apart towards the end of the season last year. They were on my powerhouse list to start last year but slipped a couple of notches. I put them at good this year hoping that they straighten some of their problems out. If not, I'll bump them down again.
The dog list is entirely based off from last years performance at this point. These were the worst teams in the NFL. Many of these teams have made some good acquisitions in the draft and Miami now has Parcells as general manager, but is one year going to be enough to turn things around? Many of these teams have serious problems, like Carolina with their quarterback issues. I will be very interested to see how you guys weigh in on these teams.
My betting strategy is very simple: follow the dogs and look for bargains in the point spread. TB vs ATL in week 11 was a classic example. It didn't take a rocket scientist to know that the Falcons were going to get their butts kicked but everyone was paying attention to NE, DAL, and GB so this game slipped under the radar. The point spread was only 3 points!!! I'm not an expert on football, not even close. I am a stock trader and what I see here is classic value investing and short sale strategies. This list is key to finding those bargains. I'll be very interested to hear your opinions.
Mike