pinnacle odds to win us open: nadal +247, djokovic +386

[hoopster42]

let me start by saying i dont care for djokovic as a person because he talks too much shit, and i really like nadal 'cause he's a humble kid with mad game and i always root for him, however,

djokovic is the best hard court player in the world right now. he won in the us open tune-up last august, made the us open final where he lost to fedex, then beat fed's ass at the aussie and won the whole thing,

nadal will be fortunate to make the us open semis, i am a fan of his and i am predicting this, he has done nothing on hard courts the past 4 yrs, why will this change? it wont because there are too many dudes out there who kick ass on hard courts

i'll bump this the first week of september and maybe i'll even get some props out of it, but if nadal makes the finals, then 1, i'll be really happy for him, and 2, i will admit that i was wrong,

my final prediction: regardless of how the draw turns out, i predict nadal makes the semis at best, where he loses to a superior hard court player

(i predict the same thing for the aussie open in january 09, the best he does is the semis)

[SBR Lou]

I don't know whose going to beat him but I don't even expect Nadal to make semis.

[hoopster42]

the following guys are strong on hard-court

djokovic
fedex
roddick
tsonga

and even ferrer and moya made the semis last yr, ferrer beat nadal in the 4th round,

blakey is alway tough on american soil, baghdatis and murray will improve, a lot of hardcourt players out there

[Tchocky]

I think Djokovic +386 and Federer not to win -160 are the two best bets. Really depends on the draw. Nadal has never played well in New York. Novak can beat both Roger & Rafa on hard courts.

[daggerkobe]

Nadal just pulled out of Germany this week citing injury so I would be hesitant about putting anything down on him. Not just the injury but also fatigue and that he hasn't made the finals of a hardcourt GS.

I'd replace Nadal with Roddick. I think he has a good chance as long as he's not in the same bracket with Federer.

[hoopster42]

I think Djokovic +386 and Federer not to win -160 are the two best bets. Really depends on the draw. Nadal has never played well in New York. Novak can beat both Roger & Rafa on hard courts.

i agree tchocky, youre rite, so much will depend on the draw but at the end of the day, djokovic's record on hard court over the last yr cannot be ignored, he is the toughest out on hc

[SBR Lou]

Man, people are way too hard on Federer. The guy only loses to two players in Slams.

[hoopster42]

Man, people are way too hard on Federer. The guy only loses to two players in Slams.

tell me about it. he spoiled us from 03-07 w/his results at wimb, us open, and aussie, but he still has 2 fewer slams than pistol pete

[HeeeHAWWWW]

Yeah, agreed, I've been saying this for ages. Nadal has shown no signs of being a contender for hard court slams.

[thearkitekt]

DJ is going to wreck.

[hoopster42]

nadal now at +236, like cows being led to the slaughterhouse

[woodg8]

Nadal is not a hardcourt player. He'll get knocked out early on, just like last year.

I'll be betting on Djokovic to take it this year. Hardcourts are his surface. He got to the final last year, won the Aussie open earlier this year and will wanna bounce back after Wimbledon.

[hoopster42]

woodg8 i completely agree. i am already on the joker, will look to hedge if need be

[hoopster42]

the us open will be a totally different story than the french and wimbledon were, just like the aussie was a totally different story, there are so many good hardcourt players
who are chomping at the bit to get a piece of the fame that nadal is getting right now, it will be really fun to watch late august early sept

[hoopster42]

odds on fed to win the us open about to take free fall after he gets ko'ed in 2nd round of toronto rogers masters

[SBR Lou]

Rafa Nadal ruined Federer....So sad to see.

[hoopster42]

Rafa Nadal ruined Federer....So sad to see.

no crazyl! say it ain't so! maybe the time off gives fedex time to think about new on court strategies! i think djokovic really hurt fed's confidence by beating him in australia in jan, at the french nadal has always killed fedex, wimbledon coulda gone either way, i think fed rebounds at us open, or maybe its just the optimist in me

[durito]

I have rather large positions on Nadal not to win at -230 and Federer not to win at -130. Will most likely reduce the federer substantially.

I don't really know anything about tennis though.

[HeeeHAWWWW]

Djokovic has to be favourite now - he's a better hard court player than Nadal, and has a great year. There are also far fewer in the draw that can trouble him, while Nadal always has trouble with Berdych/Blake/Tsonga/Soderling/Youzhny types (and there are at least a dozen more similar).

Other than Federer, who was atrocious today, I struggle to see anyone beating Djokovic on hard court now. Murray is a great matchup for him, Gasquet would fold, Safin is back to being useless, Ferrer and Davydenko don't have the weapons to get through his amazing defence, Tsonga is perma injured and Djoko beat him at the Aussie. Who else is there? Roddick is probably the only half-threat, and that's a stretch. Djoko beat him at the Canadian masters lasts year in straights, and has improved a whole lot since then. Short of a lifetime best performance, Roddick can't touch him.

[hoopster42]

Djokovic has to be favourite now - he's a better hard court player than Nadal, and has a great year. There are also far fewer in the draw that can trouble him, while Nadal always has trouble with Berdych/Blake/Tsonga/Soderling/Youzhny types (and there are at least a dozen more similar).

djoko has to be the favorite, but confidence is a huge part of tennis, and nadal has more confidence right now than anyone on tour, he's also serving well, volleying better, he's got a great shot to beat djoko this yr

[hoopster42]

I don't really know anything about tennis though.

who said that? i didnt say that did i?

[RogueJuror]

I don't really know anything about tennis though.

who said that? i didnt say that did i?

I think he was being literal not sarcastic.

[hoopster42]

I think he was being literal not sarcastic.

yeah, i guess so. ive mixed it up with a few posters here n there so i ask just to make sure

[hoopster42]

looks like i might be eating my words from the first post pretty soon

[hoopster42]

i ended up being right, the huge odds drop on nadal was ALL LOST MONEY

[hoopster42]

Rafa Nadal ruined Federer....So sad to see.

no he didn't! i told you that you were way too early to say this

[hoopster42]

my final prediction: regardless of how the draw turns out, i predict nadal makes the semis at best, where he loses to a superior hard court player

WINNER

[HeeeHAWWWW]

Nadal always loses to the first seed he meets in a hard court slam, doesn't really matter who it is. He only got to the semis because of a stupidly easy draw this time.