There's a rapid match going on between Sergei Karjakin and Nigel Short.
Quick Bio:
Karjakin = young up and coming Ukrainian kid
Short = old washed up Brit guy who challenged Kasparov for the world championship in '93 but got brutally crushed.
It's a 10 round tournament. Each player gets 25 mins and 10 seconds increment (every move made = +10 seconds on your clock).
So far Karjakin is ahead 5.5/8 and has clinched the match. It is taking place in Kiev, so Karjakin has 'home field advantage'. The two remaining games are being played tomorrow morning.
Some stats:
Karjakin is 4/4 with white. He has 1 win, 2 losses, and a draw with black.
Picks:
No Draw on both games (-135 and -140)
Short to win with black +450
Short to win with white -105
As I said, only 1/8 games so far has been drawn. There is ZERO % chance of a quick, agreed draw between these two.
Reason 1: What's the point? The games are not rated, Short has already lost the match, so why not play?
Reason 2: Short, personality wise, hates quick agreed draws. [He seems to prefer to play and lose instead
]
Reason 3: Karjakin wouldn't embarrass himself by accepting a quick draw 'at home'. People come to these games to watch. He's not going to piss them off by giving them nothing to watch.
So a draw can only result from being played on the board. Statistically, that's only happened 1/8 so far = 12.5% of the time. So at -135 and -140, you could make these picks blind.
As for Short to win both games: Karjakin will still want to win, even though he's won the match. He doesn't want to lose in front of his friends and family. Similarly, Short will want to at least have a respectable performance. Short has lost all his games with black, but after looking at them, he wasn't completely crushed in any of them. He blundered a couple of times, often had the worst position, but they could have easily gone the other way. A small play on +450 is warranted.
Short to win with white, at -105 is more of a questionable pick. He's 2.5/4 with white so far. He plays with black first, so if he loses the first game he might lose confidence and phuck up the second. Who knows, it could go the other way too. He's played solid Closed Sicilian (1. e4 c5 2. Nc3) type positions consistently, so he seems to be happy/comfortable with the positions he's been getting. Karjakin might experiment in the last game. I'm essentially going on gut feel in this one, but at least the (2.5/4) stat sort of backs me up.
Let's hit 'em!
Quick Bio:
Karjakin = young up and coming Ukrainian kid
Short = old washed up Brit guy who challenged Kasparov for the world championship in '93 but got brutally crushed.
It's a 10 round tournament. Each player gets 25 mins and 10 seconds increment (every move made = +10 seconds on your clock).
So far Karjakin is ahead 5.5/8 and has clinched the match. It is taking place in Kiev, so Karjakin has 'home field advantage'. The two remaining games are being played tomorrow morning.
Some stats:
Karjakin is 4/4 with white. He has 1 win, 2 losses, and a draw with black.
Picks:
No Draw on both games (-135 and -140)
Short to win with black +450
Short to win with white -105
As I said, only 1/8 games so far has been drawn. There is ZERO % chance of a quick, agreed draw between these two.
Reason 1: What's the point? The games are not rated, Short has already lost the match, so why not play?
Reason 2: Short, personality wise, hates quick agreed draws. [He seems to prefer to play and lose instead
]Reason 3: Karjakin wouldn't embarrass himself by accepting a quick draw 'at home'. People come to these games to watch. He's not going to piss them off by giving them nothing to watch.
So a draw can only result from being played on the board. Statistically, that's only happened 1/8 so far = 12.5% of the time. So at -135 and -140, you could make these picks blind.
As for Short to win both games: Karjakin will still want to win, even though he's won the match. He doesn't want to lose in front of his friends and family. Similarly, Short will want to at least have a respectable performance. Short has lost all his games with black, but after looking at them, he wasn't completely crushed in any of them. He blundered a couple of times, often had the worst position, but they could have easily gone the other way. A small play on +450 is warranted.
Short to win with white, at -105 is more of a questionable pick. He's 2.5/4 with white so far. He plays with black first, so if he loses the first game he might lose confidence and phuck up the second. Who knows, it could go the other way too. He's played solid Closed Sicilian (1. e4 c5 2. Nc3) type positions consistently, so he seems to be happy/comfortable with the positions he's been getting. Karjakin might experiment in the last game. I'm essentially going on gut feel in this one, but at least the (2.5/4) stat sort of backs me up.
Let's hit 'em!
