35-1 Angels World Series...

Rich Boy · 08-26-11, 11:25 AM

You will need a lot of shitty hitters to catch fire at the same time...

Guys like Wells are useless...

kerrywoodwins20 · 08-26-11, 11:26 AM

Originally posted by Rich Boy

You will need a lot of shitty hitters to catch fire at the same time...

Guys like Wells are useless...

In fairness, the Giants 2010 World Series run was a lot of shitty hitters catching fire, so 35-1 is decent value.

kerrywoodwins20 · 08-26-11, 11:27 AM

Originally posted by Rich Boy

You will need a lot of shitty hitters to catch fire at the same time...

Guys like Wells are useless...

Also, as a Cubs fan and a baseball fan, I'm a little disappointed that Aramis Ramirez wouldn't consider a trade to Anaheim... that big bat in the middle of their lineup could have made them a more serious contender.

iifold · 08-26-11, 11:31 AM

CC and Hughes??

Lester and Beckett???

I'm telling you, the Angels can beat these guys...

kerrywoodwins20 · 08-26-11, 11:32 AM

Originally posted by iifold

CC and Hughes??

Lester and Beckett???

I'm telling you, the Angels can beat these guys...

How is the Rally Monkey doing?

illfuuptn · 08-26-11, 11:45 AM

I still think the Angels will win the west. No one has run hotter up to this point than Texas(other than maybe the Yankees).

Brock Landers · 08-26-11, 12:00 PM

Angels are playing great ball

wantitall4moi · 08-26-11, 12:16 PM

you can probably find them 20-1 just to win the pennant, then roll that over because they will be more than a +175 dog to Philly. Only problem is if by some miracle Milwaukee beats Philly in a short series.

SaintsFan · 08-26-11, 12:31 PM

Angels don't have NEARLY the pitchin or hitting to pull off FOUR series upsets in a row. No way, no how.

SaintsFan · 08-26-11, 12:33 PM

Originally posted by wantitall4moi

you can probably find them 20-1 just to win the pennant, then roll that over because they will be more than a +175 dog to Philly. Only problem is if by some miracle Milwaukee beats Philly in a short series.

MKE is superior to Anaheim in every facet of the game save defense.

MKE prolly has a 35% chance to knock off Philly IMO. As much as any AL team does.

wantitall4moi · 08-26-11, 12:37 PM

Angels pitching is their best feature WTF are you talking about, they have a clear advantage in series match ups over just about any team but Philly. You obviously dont have a clue about play off baseball. You only need 3 pitchers. Thats why Phily is such a big favorite to win because they have 3 of the best in the business.

Mil MIGHT be a small fav over Angels, but it wouldnt be more than -120, which would make Angels only +110. I am not positive Phillies would be -185 over Anaheim, but they probably would be.

Angels rotation is made for play offs, they just dont have the greatest of 4 and 5 day starters.

pinnerpsk · 08-26-11, 12:44 PM

This is a solid wager. I already locked it in a few months back when they were 55-1

SaintsFan · 08-26-11, 12:49 PM

Greinke Marcum Gallardo + Wolf for LR is 2nd best playoff rotation behind Phills.

Better than Angels, BoSox, Yanks, and Giants.

305GURU · 08-26-11, 12:50 PM

good value, no doubt they wont go quietly in the playoffs, that lineup gets key hits in the postseason...add weaver haren and santana to that and it makes a strong arguement, GL

xyzky · 08-26-11, 12:54 PM

Still 35-1 and only a couple back...Great value

face · 08-26-11, 12:57 PM

i like it. santana and weaver. haren is ok.

wantitall4moi · 08-26-11, 01:02 PM

Originally posted by SaintsFan

Greinke Marcum Gallardo + Wolf for LR is 2nd best playoff rotation behind Phills.

Better than Angels, BoSox, Yanks, and Giants.

After I thought about it a little bit I would put Atlanta's starting pitching over Mil in a short series.

Only problem with Angels, and Atlanta is their closers suck. If Angels had a halfway decent closer they would be 6 or 7 games better and probably be the favorite in the A.L. but you also wouldnt be getting 35-1 on them.

iifold · 08-26-11, 01:05 PM

Angels are 35-1 at BetIslands...

15-1 in the SBR book...

Is this what we call a "Dax Lean" ???

Reener77 · 08-26-11, 01:40 PM

Originally posted by wantitall4moi

After I thought about it a little bit I would put Atlanta's starting pitching over Mil in a short series.

Only problem with Angels, and Atlanta is their closers suck. If Angels had a halfway decent closer they would be 6 or 7 games better and probably be the favorite in the A.L. but you also wouldnt be getting 35-1 on them.

Really?

illfuuptn · 08-26-11, 02:05 PM

Yeah kimbrell is terrible. Oh wait......it's the EXACT OPPOSITE of that.

lyon804 · 08-26-11, 03:13 PM

IIfold guy is pretty sharp fella.

milwaukee mike · 08-26-11, 03:23 PM

let's calculate some quick odds and be extra generous to see if there's "value" before just taking someone's word for it:
1) assume the angels are 50-50 to make the playoffs and 50-50 to win each round, that would be 15-1 true odds
2) now let's be realistic and say they are 50-50 to make the playoffs, 50-50 to win each round except 2-1 underdogs to win at boston/nyy (division winner) in first round. that would be 23-1 true odds.
3) now let's be even more realistic and realize that the angels would probably be a home underdog against the wild card winner of boston/nyy in the alcs. and the angels would almost certainly be a road underdog against any team in the national league. so let's say 45% of making the playoffs, 33% first round at nyy/bost, 45% alcs, and 40% world series. that's (.45 x .33 x .45 x .40 or 2.67% chance of winning the world series).

so by #3 analysis, which i think is more than generous regarding the angels' chances each step of the way, the angels have a 1 in 37 chance of winning the world series.
so i find NO value in this line, even being generous with the angels' chances.

rm18 · 08-26-11, 03:28 PM

Kimbrell will probably go down as the best closer of all time

milwaukee mike · 08-26-11, 03:44 PM

Originally posted by wantitall4moi

After I thought about it a little bit I would put Atlanta's starting pitching over Mil in a short series.

Only problem with Angels, and Atlanta is their closers suck. If Angels had a halfway decent closer they would be 6 or 7 games better and probably be the favorite in the A.L. but you also wouldnt be getting 35-1 on them.

don't know what's dumber about this post, the fact that atlanta has 2 awesome closers or the fact that everyone in the world that knows anything about baseball would pick gallardo, greinke, marcum over atlanta's starters in a short series, especially since milwaukee will have home field advantage.

rm18 · 08-26-11, 04:08 PM

Good bet but the wrong bet, 5 dimes is also offering +1650 to win the AL, and without the homefield they will be dogs in the WS for sure and you might even get 50/1+ riding the AL winnings on the WS line if they play Philly.

KKoz9 · 08-26-11, 06:10 PM

Originally posted by SaintsFan

Angels don't have NEARLY the pitchin or hitting to pull off FOUR series upsets in a row. No way, no how.

This ^^^

Plus, am I mistaken or didn't Texas just punk them in their own building 3 of 4 last week? And it should have been a sweep.

Rangers can hit anyone, especially at home in the 100 degree heat...Angels will be lucky to get 1 in this series, probably Weaver's start.

wantitall4moi · 08-26-11, 06:12 PM

any closer that blows 5 saves isnt that great. Plus he blew leads in a few other games and got bailed out. So he isnt that impressive to me. But whatever. Plus to say he might go down as one of the greatest closers ever is something I would expect to hear from JJ gold. The guy hasnt even pitched 2 full seasons yet.

On the ther hand your Mil guy is lights out, 37 for 39, and no blown leads. But if you want to see the best Pappelbon for Bos is the guy. His WHIP is way under 1, and he only blew one save and I think that was on a HR, which is really his only weakness he gives up a few long balls.

As if you seriously think Atl starters arent better than Mil starters...man. WHIP for atlanta guys much better, and even though it is over rated ERA for Mil guys isnt even close to Atl guys. Mil wins due to run support more than anything else. Just like Bos and NYY do. Mil has almost 600 runs scored this year. Atlanta is maybe 550. And since this is about the Angels, Angels have scored right around 500 runs and are still a 70 win team right now. Texas outscored them by 150 runs and have a 2 game lead on them.

This series tonight will tell the tale. Angels sweep they lead and prob dont look back, they lose a ocuple they are still close enough, but with around 30 games ot play they probably have to win every series if texas sweeps them again.

KKoz9 · 08-26-11, 06:18 PM

Originally posted by milwaukee mike

let's calculate some quick odds and be extra generous to see if there's "value" before just taking someone's word for it:
1) assume the angels are 50-50 to make the playoffs and 50-50 to win each round, that would be 15-1 true odds
2) now let's be realistic and say they are 50-50 to make the playoffs, 50-50 to win each round except 2-1 underdogs to win at boston/nyy (division winner) in first round. that would be 23-1 true odds.
3) now let's be even more realistic and realize that the angels would probably be a home underdog against the wild card winner of boston/nyy in the alcs. and the angels would almost certainly be a road underdog against any team in the national league. so let's say 45% of making the playoffs, 33% first round at nyy/bost, 45% alcs, and 40% world series. that's (.45 x .33 x .45 x .40 or 2.67% chance of winning the world series).

so by #3 analysis, which i think is more than generous regarding the angels' chances each step of the way, the angels have a 1 in 37 chance of winning the world series.
so i find NO value in this line, even being generous with the angels' chances.

How dare you talk sense in one of his threads...

Stick to propaganda, sanctimony, and hunches like "his royal highness"

rm18 · 08-26-11, 06:18 PM

Those blown saves were in his first two months in the bigs. Kimbrell might save 650 games

and he hasn't given up a run in 10 weeks, and he has the greatest K9 innings in the history of baseball.

ahayes · 08-26-11, 07:28 PM

need look at hot atlanta

milwaukee mike · 08-26-11, 07:44 PM

Originally posted by wantitall4moi

any closer that blows 5 saves isnt that great. Plus he blew leads in a few other games and got bailed out. So he isnt that impressive to me. But whatever. Plus to say he might go down as one of the greatest closers ever is something I would expect to hear from JJ gold. The guy hasnt even pitched 2 full seasons yet.

On the ther hand your Mil guy is lights out, 37 for 39, and no blown leads. But if you want to see the best Pappelbon for Bos is the guy. His WHIP is way under 1, and he only blew one save and I think that was on a HR, which is really his only weakness he gives up a few long balls.

As if you seriously think Atl starters arent better than Mil starters...man. WHIP for atlanta guys much better, and even though it is over rated ERA for Mil guys isnt even close to Atl guys. Mil wins due to run support more than anything else. Just like Bos and NYY do. Mil has almost 600 runs scored this year. Atlanta is maybe 550. And since this is about the Angels, Angels have scored right around 500 runs and are still a 70 win team right now. Texas outscored them by 150 runs and have a 2 game lead on them.

This series tonight will tell the tale. Angels sweep they lead and prob dont look back, they lose a ocuple they are still close enough, but with around 30 games ot play they probably have to win every series if texas sweeps them again.

you said "in a short series" meaning top 3 starters so let's go:
whip brewers top 3
marcum 1.13
greinke 1.16
gallardo 1.25

whip braves top 3
hudson 1.07
jurrjens 1.21
lowe 1.46

so how is the whip for the top braves starters "much better"? if i add those 3 together it is actually much WORSE for the braves and they pitch in a much more pitcher-friendly park.