van Wely - Mamedyarov Draw -132
Leko - Naiditsch Draw -131
Nepomniatchi -177
Naiditsch +333 (not counting this in my posted picks as I made only a small play)
van Wely - Mamedyarov
Mamedyarov has drawn all his games so far. With black he probably won't try to win, even against the weak van Wely (1/6). Van Wely won't try hard to win, either. He doesn't want to risk a 3rd straight loss. Both are probably happy to just draw and prepare for the next tournament. Neither have anything to gain tournament-wise by playing this out. Draw -132.
Nepomniatchi - Gustafsson
This is a bit tricky. These two are tied for second with 3.5/6 each. Leko is leading with 4/6. The result of this game is pretty dependent on the game going on between Leko and Naiditsch (and vice-versa). If Leko draws, then these two might try to win to tie for first. If Leko wins, then these two can't catch him and might just draw. The problem is these games are played simultaneously. Nepomniatchi will probably try for the win, though. He's undefeated, and though Gustafsson has played well this tournament, he is still viewed as the lower rated guy who doesn't belong. He's also coming off a disappointing loss to Leko. I like Nepomniatchi to win @ -177.
Leko - Naiditsch
If Leko sees Nepom and Gustafsson draw, he will most certainly be happy with a draw against Naiditsch to claim clear first. So a draw is virtually guaranteed if it seems to Leko that Nepom and Gustafsson are headed for a draw. Aside from the last round dynamics, I think this game is likely to be drawn anyways. Most of the previous games between these two have been drawn, while Leko has never lost with white. Unfortunately, there's too much chalk on Leko at -380 or whatever. So I made a small play on Naiditsch at +333 and also bet the draw at -131.
As for Ivanchuk-Kramnik, it's a likely draw. Kramnik wants to do better than the 50% he's currently at, but with black against Ivanchuk he won't be expecting much. The draw at -210 is just too much chalk. Almost took the no draw, but didn't feel comfortable with it. Might even be a quick draw. No play.
Leko - Naiditsch Draw -131
Nepomniatchi -177
Naiditsch +333 (not counting this in my posted picks as I made only a small play)
van Wely - Mamedyarov
Mamedyarov has drawn all his games so far. With black he probably won't try to win, even against the weak van Wely (1/6). Van Wely won't try hard to win, either. He doesn't want to risk a 3rd straight loss. Both are probably happy to just draw and prepare for the next tournament. Neither have anything to gain tournament-wise by playing this out. Draw -132.
Nepomniatchi - Gustafsson
This is a bit tricky. These two are tied for second with 3.5/6 each. Leko is leading with 4/6. The result of this game is pretty dependent on the game going on between Leko and Naiditsch (and vice-versa). If Leko draws, then these two might try to win to tie for first. If Leko wins, then these two can't catch him and might just draw. The problem is these games are played simultaneously. Nepomniatchi will probably try for the win, though. He's undefeated, and though Gustafsson has played well this tournament, he is still viewed as the lower rated guy who doesn't belong. He's also coming off a disappointing loss to Leko. I like Nepomniatchi to win @ -177.
Leko - Naiditsch
If Leko sees Nepom and Gustafsson draw, he will most certainly be happy with a draw against Naiditsch to claim clear first. So a draw is virtually guaranteed if it seems to Leko that Nepom and Gustafsson are headed for a draw. Aside from the last round dynamics, I think this game is likely to be drawn anyways. Most of the previous games between these two have been drawn, while Leko has never lost with white. Unfortunately, there's too much chalk on Leko at -380 or whatever. So I made a small play on Naiditsch at +333 and also bet the draw at -131.
As for Ivanchuk-Kramnik, it's a likely draw. Kramnik wants to do better than the 50% he's currently at, but with black against Ivanchuk he won't be expecting much. The draw at -210 is just too much chalk. Almost took the no draw, but didn't feel comfortable with it. Might even be a quick draw. No play.
