Explain how you can not make money on this

[shock11]

Enough said

[Stumpage]

I disagree.....Even if you arb this out perfectly, your best guaranteed return is Negative 4.4%.

[pokernut9999]

Sun 7/6 Will R. Nadal Win 3-0 ?
Yes +688
No -758

Sun 7/6 Will R. Nadal Win 3-1 ?
Yes +450
No -500

R. Nadal Win 3-2 ?
Yes +480
No -530

Pick Yes for all of them. Getting over 2 to 1 on your money if he beats roger federer tommorow if you do it that way. Also Pick Roger Federer to win at -130. Can't loose money no matter who wins

To answer your question .


If he loses you lose 3 units to the one you win on Roger

[Ganchrow]

Sun 7/6 Will R. Nadal Win 3-0 ?
Yes +688
No -758

Sun 7/6 Will R. Nadal Win 3-1 ?
Yes +450
No -500

R. Nadal Win 3-2 ?
Yes +480
No -530

Pick Yes for all of them. Getting over 2 to 1 on your money if he beats roger federer tommorow if you do it that way. Also Pick Roger Federer to win at -130. Can't loose money no matter who wins

Betting Nadal in this manner would be the equivalent of taking him at a line of about +107.8.

"Scalping" Nadal at a line of +107.8 with Federer at -130 would be worth about -4.4300%.

Nadal Win 3-0: risk 1.0000 to win 6.8800
Nadal Win 3-1: risk 1.4327 to win 6.4473
Nadal Win 3-2: risk 1.3586 to win 6.5214
Federer Win: risk 4.4539 to win 3.4261

Total Risk: 8.2453

This will yield a loss of -0.3653 units or -0.3653 / 8.2453 ≈ -4.43% regardless of outcome.

See my Arbitrage Calculator.

[Stumpage]

I would have put down what Ganch elaborated on, but I worked out the Negative 4.4% in my head.....Yeah, that's my story and I'm stickin' with it....

[shock11]

ty for the Arbitrage Calculator. but you could go line shoping for other sites with +550 on certain sites while certain sites offer +450

[BuddyBear]

Don't even waste time dude...the books have EVERY corner covered. The books aren't in the business of handing out free money.....

[BuddyBear]

Just take R.F. tomorrow to win and forget about betting 10 different things to make a few bucks.....

[shock11]

yeah be pointless just for that small 1% edge

[Stumpage]

ty for the Arbitrage Calculator. but you could go line shoping for other sites with +550 on certain sites while certain sites offer +450

Actually, going from +450 to +550 still doesn't take you out of the negative. You have to get around +640 before you even enter the Profit Zone.....

Like BB said, they usually have these types of angles covered.....

[shock11]

yeah i know i was messing with the arbitrage

[Stumpage]

Hey, nothing wrong with lookin' for an edge, Shock.....Best of luck regardless if you're making a wager on the final.....