My highly infrequent MLB pick

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  • bettilimbroke999
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 02-04-08
    • 13254

    #1
    My highly infrequent MLB pick
    Astros FF +170, Braves on a 5 game skid up against a solid pitcher in Moehler. Who's on this play? TONS O' VALUE! Line should be Astros +120ish
  • pavyracer
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 04-12-07
    • 82667

    #2
    Hudson is 1-0 with a 1.13 ERA in three career starts against the Astros (40-46), who have dropped eight of their last 10 games in Atlanta dating to the start of the 2005 season.

    Moehler has struggled against the Braves, going 1-4 with a 5.12 ERA in 12 career appearances, including five starts.
    Comment
    • bettilimbroke999
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 02-04-08
      • 13254

      #3
      I prefer to look at this season, as I find it more relevant, we go to past seasons and Silva is a star, does that mean you bet on the Mariners now, fuk no you know that pile of shit aint worth killin now so you bet against him. Anyways, Moehler's got a 3.82 ERA and has only given up 2 runs in his last 12 innings (5 2/3 against Texas and 6 1/3 against Boston, both high powered offenses), either take the Under or the Astros +170 FF is where the value is in this game but it's not against the law to fade if you feel differently, do whatever you thinks best for you
      Comment
      • pavyracer
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 04-12-07
        • 82667

        #4
        I do not necessarily disagree with your pick. I'm showing you why books think it's +170.
        Comment
        • rake922
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 12-23-07
          • 11692

          #5
          I bet Astros +173 on matchbook
          Comment
          • bettilimbroke999
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 02-04-08
            • 13254

            #6
            Originally posted by rake922
            I bet Astros +173 on matchbook
            FF or for whole game, my pick/bet is just for FF, don't want to get into the shit Astros bullpen who will likely giveup 500, just want a straight heads up matchup Moehler vs Hudson at +170
            Comment
            • rake922
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 12-23-07
              • 11692

              #7
              the whole game...
              Comment
              • BuddyBear
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 08-10-05
                • 7233

                #8
                Brian Moehler is not a solid pitcher...he's a journeyman pitcher and is only starting b/c of injuries. He's average to below average at best......
                Comment
                • bettilimbroke999
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 02-04-08
                  • 13254

                  #9
                  Originally posted by BuddyBear
                  Brian Moehler is not a solid pitcher...he's a journeyman pitcher and is only starting b/c of injuries. He's average to below average at best......
                  3.82 ERA is solid IMO, not cheat on your wife with Madonna solid but fairly solid, as well as coming off a 12 inning stretch against Tex/Boston and give up only 2 runs. I think the Braves should be favored in this but if you are dumb enough to lay -190 on Atl FF you prolly don't have enough money left to fade or follow this pick anyway
                  Comment
                  • bettilimbroke999
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 02-04-08
                    • 13254

                    #10
                    Fukin 1st major league AB this idiot triples with 2 out , would expect nothing less from an MLB bet than total luckbox bullshit, unfukinreal, congrats any1 who took -190 on Atlanta
                    Comment
                    • pavyracer
                      SBR Aristocracy
                      • 04-12-07
                      • 82667

                      #11
                      Don't bet against Hudson at home.
                      Comment
                      • bettilimbroke999
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 02-04-08
                        • 13254

                        #12
                        Guess not, figured 3.82 ERA pitcher with a 1.5 ERA his last two starts agains Tex/Bos getting +170 was a solid pick, obviously in hindsight -190 on Atlanta was the way to go, congrats chalk bettors, you got big balls to lay that kinda chalk on two teams both won 40 games a piece and both with 3.x era pitchers on the mound, but guess it paid off today so congrats
                        Comment
                        • bettilimbroke999
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 02-04-08
                          • 13254

                          #13
                          Originally posted by bettilimbroke999
                          I prefer to look at this season, as I find it more relevant, we go to past seasons and Silva is a star, does that mean you bet on the Mariners now, fuk no you know that pile of shit aint worth killin now so you bet against him. Anyways, Moehler's got a 3.82 ERA and has only given up 2 runs in his last 12 innings (5 2/3 against Texas and 6 1/3 against Boston, both high powered offenses), either take the Under or the Astros +170 FF is where the value is in this game but it's not against the law to fade if you feel differently, do whatever you thinks best for you
                          Well was right on my other pick either under or Astros +170 FF I just bet the wrong pick
                          Comment
                          • WileOut
                            SBR MVP
                            • 02-04-07
                            • 3844

                            #14
                            I watched this game. The homeplate umpire screwed Tim Hudson in every which way possible. Hudson went nuts when 2 lobs right down the middle of the plate to the batting Houston pitcher were both called balls and he issued the walk to the pitcher. Hudson took his hat off and screamed, so did the Braves dugout. The umpire had to take his mask off and walk halfway to the mound to quiet Hudson. To that point Hudson had questioned at least 5 other pitches, very unusual for him. He even questioned one while he was batting. A pitch 2 feet outside called a strike. Hudsons strike zone tonight was much smaller than the Astros pitcher for whatever reason. Still, the final should have been about 11-1 because the other run was given by the ball/strike caller and the Braves hit a million rockets right at Astros players.

                            But I agree with the OP that the value was with the Astros in this game. Astros was the play it just didnt come through this time. Hudson was as good as he gets and the Atl batters were all locked in.

                            I watch 90% of the Braves games BTW.
                            Comment
                            • bettilimbroke999
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 02-04-08
                              • 13254

                              #15
                              Screwed on so many calls he gave up no runs through FF , must be a braves fan, glad they snapped their 5 game slide, figured I shoulda gone with the under, couldn't decide between that or the +170 Astros, bad decision on my part
                              Comment
                              • WileOut
                                SBR MVP
                                • 02-04-07
                                • 3844

                                #16
                                You were on the right side, I'm not arguing that.

                                Hudson was simply on his A game tonight. The home plate umpire calls were some of the most lopsided I've ever seen towards the away team. Thats how good Hudson is when he is on. He can shut them down even with the ump clearly favoring the other team.
                                Comment
                                • bettilimbroke999
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 02-04-08
                                  • 13254

                                  #17
                                  Let me home plate ump the next game, we'll see if he can shut them down when the ump is for the other team
                                  Comment
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