Why are Brewers (Marcum) only -136 at NYM (Pelfrey)?

[SaintsFan]

In the past month that I've been active on baseball wagering I have yet to bet in a game involving the Metropolitans. I am very familiar with the Brewers, however and I'm puzzled why a legitimate top 10 pitcher in the NL (Marcum - who has been on fire) is not a heavier favorite against a mediocre right-hander like Pelfrey?

Further, I like a red hot team like Milwaukee coming off a loss, especially on the first game of a road trip in NYC where you know they'll be geeked up, excited to be away from the wives/girlfriends and go pussy tubing in the big city after a win, etc. The Mets are still without Reyes, have been out of contention for ages, etc.

What gives? Assuming that the Brewers have their normal lineup in place (Hart/Morgan/Hebrew Hammer/Fielder/McGahee/Betancourt) I'm almost certainly going to be heavy on MIL.

Starting pitching - Edge Brewers (considerable)
Offensive lineup - Edge Brewers (considerable)
Relief pitching - Edge Brewers (moderate)
Defensive fielding - Edge Metropolitans (minor)

[rm18]

Brewers have a bad road receord but I like the Brewers, Marcum in a pitchers park against a team without their two best hitters is lights out.

[SaintsFan]

Brewers have a bad road receord but I like the Brewers, Marcum in a pitchers park against a team without their two best hitters is lights out.

I think their lousy road record was hugely caused by their shitty fielding and no Greinke at the start of the season.

Their fielding has improved considerably and Greinke has obviously returned to be a top 5 pitcher in the NL (argualy top 3). The Brewers had a really tough and successful road trip 2 weeks ago, winning series in San Francisco and St Louis and pulling away from the pack.

All that is to say that I agree with you. I'd rather have Greinke on the hill than Marcum but this seems like a mismatch and that there's tons of value on the Milwaukee side tonight.

Just waiting for lineup confirmation that Braun/Fielder/Hart/McGahee are all in the lineup. There had been some rumors that Roenicke was going to start resting a guy here and there.

[jarvol]

BrewCrew hasn't scored in a week.

[milwaukee mike]

sooner or later the brewers are going to bust out the bats but even without them marcum should shut down the mets.
i would lean brewers or even brewers on the run line -1 1/2

[bobby heenan]

probably the same reason the dodgers were 123 favorites in milwaukee yesterday...which i played.....good pitcher on the mound(kershaw)....but the bats have been cold.....but at least milwaukees lineup is much more capable than the dodgers.....and they are due

lemme know when you get that lineup confirmed and im on it too

[tanner40]

Road juice isn't good

[bobby heenan]

Road juice isn't good

while i usually agree.....it worked yesterday with kershaw and romero.....now i dont think of marcum in their category....but hes good....and pelfrey isnt....romero was against cahill whos been shit....estrada vs kershaw was a mismatch too

[rm18]

mets going with a strange lineup getting some extra lefties in there I guess

[rm18]

Hart RF, Morgan CF, Braun LF, Fielder 1B, McGehee 3B, Betancourt SS, Lucroy C, Counsell 2B, Marcum P

[LT Profits]

Hart RF, Morgan CF, Braun LF, Fielder 1B, McGehee 3B, Betancourt SS, Lucroy C, Counsell 2B, Marcum P

[bobby heenan]

all over it!

[LT Profits]

LOL

never mind

[neverstoppers23]

Dumbass public still believes some how the brewers can't win the road, when in reality the bad record on the road really just means that we played our worst ball while on a long road trip. I will be on this all night long.

[neverstoppers23]

I think their lousy road record was hugely caused by their shitty fielding and no Greinke at the start of the season.

Their fielding has improved considerably and Greinke has obviously returned to be a top 5 pitcher in the NL (argualy top 3). The Brewers had a really tough and successful road trip 2 weeks ago, winning series in San Francisco and St Louis and pulling away from the pack.

All that is to say that I agree with you. I'd rather have Greinke on the hill than Marcum but this seems like a mismatch and that there's tons of value on the Milwaukee side tonight.

Just waiting for lineup confirmation that Braun/Fielder/Hart/McGahee are all in the lineup. There had been some rumors that Roenicke was going to start resting a guy here and there.

Brewers won't rest Fielder, he doesn't need it. The plan has been known that they are going to give Braun days off here and there to keep his leg injuries stable.

[Gee]

Dumbass public still believes some how the brewers can't win the road, when in reality the bad record on the road really just means that we played our worst ball while on a long road trip. I will be on this all night long.

85% on brewers. What crap you talking?

[as99]

Brewers can barely score a run these days, but then the logic is always they're bound to break out.

[bobby heenan]

Brewers can barely score a run these days, but then the logic is always they're bound to break out.

and pelfrey is just the man to do it against

[Glitch]

currently 98% on brewers runline. 84% on brewers moneyline.
(courtesy of pregame.com)

i wouldnt touch this with a 10-foot pole.

[ciscomr23]

i like the over

[Avenger]

Brewers play bad in the big city, your post may give clues why. They win this one but I'm fading them the rest of the series, don't care whose pitching/hitting.

[will2survive]

Brewers are a killer home team but have been lackluster on the road---that's your answer

[face]

mike pelfrey is due for more suckiness. but mets are a little unpredictable. line is about right i guess. looks good for brewers.
1. Angel Pagan (S) CF
2. Willie Harris (L) 2B not too good
3. David Wright (R) 3B
4. Lucas Duda (L) 1B
5. Mike Baxter (L) RF never heard of.
6. Jason Pridie (L) LF sucks ass.
7. Josh Thole (L) C sucks ass, lots of pass balls
8. Ruben Tejada (R) SS good fielder, sucks ass at at plate.
9. Mike Pelfrey (R) P sucks ass.

[pacocn]

books got their money in the chicago game
they can't f us again can they?

[MoneyLineDawg]

Took Brew Crew, Yankees, and Angels ML's for a parlay.....pays +320

[HoulihansTX]

Mike Pelfrey has strong home numbers, but we all know that he can not be trusted with our $$$$$

[JD426]

looks like rain... SP getting knocked out early because of a delay would be big advantage for NYM

[DDT]

I like the Crew here as well

[bobby heenan]

bummpppp

[milwaukee mike]

nice easy win

good work with that parlay moneylinedog, not often you can take a 3-team mlb parlay and each pick wins by at least 5 runs

[HoulihansTX]

-130 on the road is not a cheap fav by any means, but the line did stick out to me.