Last min pick - Nadal in straight sets - Easy money at -425

[Stacocakes]

Going to be a great final.Can't wait

[dwaechte]

I bet Rafa in straight sets and -8.5 at -165. I just thought the 9 or 9 1/2 might be a little too much. If Rafa holds for the remainder of the set he'll win by 9 games and I'll be golden.

He needs to break another for you doesn't he? If he just holds itd be 6-4, putting him up only 8 games on the match.

[dwaechte]

What do you guys have the final line at?

If I can get Federer at -175 or better I'll be all over it. Until Nadal proves he can beat him on grass I think Feddy is the play.

[Stacocakes]

Federer will be less then that. I think he is going to be around -130 something

[Stacocakes]

Can actually get him right now to win at -115

[HeeeHAWWWW]

Betfair has Federer at 1.8 after commission (-125). That's essentially final odds, since Nadal has won here.

[Stacocakes]

can get 1.84 now heehaw

[HeeeHAWWWW]

Yeah, but after commission that's 1.8, maybe 1.82 if you have insanely low commission.


Anyway, my question now is - I have Nadal to win the tournament, fairly large bet at 5.0. To lay off, or not..........

[Stacocakes]

oh ok.I hear ya
Tough call with Nadal.If I were you I would back Fed and guarantee a profit.Another thing that you could do is to see how the first set unfolds.If Nadal wins the first set you are golden but if Fed wins the first set, think about what you think the odds will be.I am guessing if Fed is one set up you would still be able to back fed and guarantee a profit.
Depends how much you want to risk I guess.Personally I like to green up when I can and take the profit so I would back Fed prematch, guarantee myself money either way, then try to make some more during the in-play bets

[mathdotcom]

If Nadal wins 1st set it's over for Federer
Unless maybe if it's a really close set.

But if Federer wins 1st set, it doesn't mean Nadal is done for.

[dwaechte]

Hmmm. Trying to decide if I should hit -125 now or wait and see how it moves. Any thoughts?

[HeeeHAWWWW]

oh ok.I hear ya
Tough call with Nadal.If I were you I would back Fed and guarantee a profit.Another thing that you could do is to see how the first set unfolds.If Nadal wins the first set you are golden but if Fed wins the first set, think about what you think the odds will be.I am guessing if Fed is one set up you would still be able to back fed and guarantee a profit.
Depends how much you want to risk I guess.Personally I like to green up when I can and take the profit so I would back Fed prematch, guarantee myself money either way, then try to make some more during the in-play bets

Hrrrm, tricky. Laying off right now gets me 42% of the profit that a straight Nadal win would. Fairly expensive.

How about betting on Fed to win 3-2? I can't see him winning any other way. That's priced at 6.5 (+550), and it only cuts my profit to 80%.

Could also add Fed 3-1 at 5.0 (+400) as well as 3-2, but that's cutting profits to 55%.

[smallon]

He needs to break another for you doesn't he? If he just holds itd be 6-4, putting him up only 8 games on the match.

Yea, after I posted that I thought, "Oh shit , it's gotta be 6-3."

To make matters worse, Nadal was up 40-0 and would have won 6-3 but ended up making a couple of errors and it went to 6-4.