MJ's Tuesday's Early MLB Play

[kerrywoodwins20]

Rays at Red Sox under 8::: 1:05 eastern time.

Let me demonstrate some stats that explain why I love this under..

Jon Lester is 4-0 with a 1.60 ERA in 4 day starts this year.

On top of that, Lester owns the Rays' lineup historically. .532 OPS from Upton, .515 OPS vs Zobrist, just a .692 OPS from Longoria.

James Shields is coming off a complete game shutout and he has a big game pitcher this year. With the Rays backed into a corner, you know he is going to show up tomorrow. You should also expect several key players to sit the early game tomorrow with a double header on tap.

Enjoy the play.

[kerrywoodwins20]

bump?

[Finch Dinero]

James Shields is way too iffy @ fenway though...

[kerrywoodwins20]

James Shields is way too iffy @ fenway though...

He'll pitch well. Promise.

[Finch Dinero]

I took the moneyline on Boston. 2 units. GOOD LUCK to ya mate

[SaintsFan]

I hate betting the under during day games. Runs come 25% easier in noon games than night games - and this is a stat trending over the past 5 years.

If you buy into the stat then you're essentially betting an under 6 runs (accounting for the day game) in a bandbox (Fenway) with two very good batting lineups.

[jeffdane]

nobody is sitting, shields gave up 10 to the a's and 6 to the sox(last time he faced them)
lester 7 runs and 9 walks last 2 starts.

[Pete0]

could go way over !

[kerrywoodwins20]

could go way over !

Could go way under too.

[kerrywoodwins20]

I hate betting the under during day games. Runs come 25% easier in noon games than night games - and this is a stat trending over the past 5 years.

If you buy into the stat then you're essentially betting an under 6 runs (accounting for the day game) in a bandbox (Fenway) with two very good batting lineups.

Lester's day numbers speak for themselves and look at the way Shields has pitched this year when opposing another ace... He threw a shut out against Boston against Beckett and then threw a shutout against the Yankees and CC.

Facing another ace today....

[kerrywoodwins20]

And I've lost before, but Lester has shut down the 3-4-5 in the Rays' lineup and they have Sammy Fuld hitting 2nd... they don't particularly scare me against Lester...

[kerrywoodwins20]

1-0 after 1. Shields looks good and I think Lester settles down.

[kerrywoodwins20]

1-0 after 2. Shields looks very good. Lester looks shaky.

[kerrywoodwins20]

The dreaded fluke 3 run HR to put a dent in under backers!

[jeffdane]

fluke?

[kerrywoodwins20]

fluke?

Yep... Unfortunate that he hit his HR there rather than to lead off as solo in his first at bat. Just some bad luck, but it should still go under.

[jeffdane]

the first 3 red sox batters almost homered, in the 1st inning. obviously shields isnt putting the ball where he wants. not a fluke, hes off and the sox could have 4 hr's already. are u watching the game?

[kerrywoodwins20]

the first 3 red sox batters almost homered, in the 1st inning. obviously shields isnt putting the ball where he wants. not a fluke, hes off and the sox could have 4 hr's already. are u watching the game?

You're obviously a little biased. I'm watching the game and 2 of those 3 were pop ups.

I predicted a 5-1 final earlier.. I'll probably stick with that.

[kerrywoodwins20]

Lester is in a groove now and Sox offense tends to relax a bit with a lead. Don't regret the HR so much now. Might help out.

[kerrywoodwins20]

3-1 Red Sox in the bottom of the 8th now.

6 hits combined in the game, yet 4 runs.

[kerrywoodwins20]

[kerrywoodwins20]

3-1 final

[Pete0]

good call

[kerrywoodwins20]

good call

I get lucky every now and then.

I hope to get lucky on the under 7.5 for Dodgers/Brewers (Billingsly/Gallardo)
and the under 8 Indians/White Sox (Jimenez/Floyd)