Kramnik to win -280
Naiditsch to win -102
Nepomniatchti - van Wely Draw -148
Kramnik to win
Kramnik hasn't lost to Leko, with white, since 2004. I was originally expecting the line on this to be somewhere in the -400s. It is very rare for Kramnik to lose with white, in general. But as usual, I am expecting a draw.
Naiditsch to win
Naiditsch beat Kramnik w/ white yesterday, in an opening Kramnik is an expert in. I can't see why he would go for any less against the weaker Mamedyarov. I couldn't see why Naiditsch was only -102 to win. Mamedyarov beat Naiditsch a couple times, but this was way back in 2004. Naiditsch is a young player, so games years ago don't mean anything as he's improved a lot since then. I rate Mamedyarov as the better player, but I had to take Naiditsch as he has white, seems to be hot, and the price is only EV. Let's hope his win against Kramnik doesn't get too much to his head.
Nepomniatchi - van Wely Draw
If you make only one bet, it should be this one. Nepomniatchi is the only player in the tournament to have drawn all 3 of his previous games, and after looking at them, it seems he is happy to continue that way. He's saved a few games where he was worse, but has been rather unambitious with white. Van Wely is infamous for drawing a lot of games. The only pairing I could imagine being more likely to draw is these same 2 players but with colors reversed. Let's just hope Nepomniatchi doesn't try to finally win a game today.
Naiditsch to win -102
Nepomniatchti - van Wely Draw -148
Kramnik to win
Kramnik hasn't lost to Leko, with white, since 2004. I was originally expecting the line on this to be somewhere in the -400s. It is very rare for Kramnik to lose with white, in general. But as usual, I am expecting a draw.
Naiditsch to win
Naiditsch beat Kramnik w/ white yesterday, in an opening Kramnik is an expert in. I can't see why he would go for any less against the weaker Mamedyarov. I couldn't see why Naiditsch was only -102 to win. Mamedyarov beat Naiditsch a couple times, but this was way back in 2004. Naiditsch is a young player, so games years ago don't mean anything as he's improved a lot since then. I rate Mamedyarov as the better player, but I had to take Naiditsch as he has white, seems to be hot, and the price is only EV. Let's hope his win against Kramnik doesn't get too much to his head.
Nepomniatchi - van Wely Draw
If you make only one bet, it should be this one. Nepomniatchi is the only player in the tournament to have drawn all 3 of his previous games, and after looking at them, it seems he is happy to continue that way. He's saved a few games where he was worse, but has been rather unambitious with white. Van Wely is infamous for drawing a lot of games. The only pairing I could imagine being more likely to draw is these same 2 players but with colors reversed. Let's just hope Nepomniatchi doesn't try to finally win a game today.
