Is this tennis line a joke tomorrow?

[SBR Lou]

Nadal -450
vs A. Murray

[pico]

not a joke. this is the real odds of nadal winning.

i wouldn't touch it. i would just bet the spread or the over/under

[SBR Lou]

Someone verify it's not a typing error.

[woodg8]

Way too much risk to place that bet, I'm stayin away. The game's on Wednesday anyway so it'll probably get better

[pico]

Wimbledon 2008 Qtr F Tennis - Wed 7/2
Game Spread Money Line Total Points More
Wed 7/2 1 R. Federer -1650
02:00 AM 2 M. Ancic +1300

Wed 7/2 3 M. Safin -145
02:00 AM 4 F. Lopez +135

Wed 7/2 5 R. Schuettler +116
02:00 AM 6 A. Clement -126

Wed 7/2 7 A. Murray +409
02:00 AM 8 R. Nadal -449

i like federer -1650

[SBR Lou]

I just have a feeling if I bet on Nadal it will be canceled as bad line.

[SBR Lou]

Francis you out there bud?

[LT Profits]

Crazy, the line is right as several books are in ballpark. I guess they are giving MUrray too much credit for home court advantage.

[Shark79]

I cheked a couple of places and it looks pretty much in the 400's .... it does seem pretty off ... but give it a shot and see what happens ... Im taking a break from tennis ...

[pico]

Crazy, the line is right as several books are in ballpark. I guess they are giving MUrray too much credit for home court advantage.

the line is not off. nadal is not that great on grass.

[SBR Lou]

the line is not off. nadal is not that great on grass.

Quick-- When's the last time he lost on grass?

Exactly.

Who beat Djokovic Roddick, Karlovic etc in the warmup tournament prior to Wimby? He's beaten just about every style there is as of late on grass, I mean maybe he won't beat Fed but come on. ANDY MURRAY?

[Shark79]

There must be something they know that we dont ... does he have a slight injury???

Just to weird of a line ... and this guys DOES have respect.

[chance]

Take Murray.

Crowd will go wild.

Nadal has been going good on grass. But lets face it this is not his surface

[SBR Lou]

There must be something they know that we dont ... does he have a slight injury???

Just to weird of a line ... and this guys DOES have respect.

Maybe you are right, he did have an injury scare today but leg was patched up and he seemed fine closing out the match. Maybe someone knows it is affecting him now.

[Shark79]

C'mon guys ... the more I hear Nadal is not good in grass ... simply makes me laugh.

Yes, it is not his best turf ... but c'mon this guy will EASILY be in the final match vrs Fed.

[shifer]

Nadal is great on any surface, but thats not the point. He is carrying a knee injury = reason for price.

[ZXCVBNM123]

Seems like it should be more but never under-estimate the home field advantage.

[Shark79]

Maybe you are right, he did have an injury scare today but leg was patched up and he seemed fine closing out the match. Maybe someone knows it is affecting him now.

Take into consideration this guy probably partied pretty hard on Sunday after Spain won the Euro Cup ... he might have not shown weakness today ... but he might resent it on Wed. Many factors

[Shark79]

Nadal is great on any surface, but thats not the point. He is carrying a knee injury = reason for price.

TY Shifer ... so I was right on the money.

[woodg8]

It certainly ain't a bad line. Betfair are offering it at 1.26 right now (which is -385.38)

[SBR Lou]

OK fine there's an injury concern, but he didn't seem hindered closing the match out. Whereas Jelena Jankovic was visibly hindered the other day and you can tell she'd be really banged up. I don't feel there's conclusive evidence to suggest he will be impaired much off his normal game.

[shifer]

OK fine there's an injury concern, but he didn't seem hindered closing the match out. Whereas Jelena Jankovic was visibly hindered the other day and you can tell she'd be really banged up. I don't feel there's conclusive evidence to suggest he will be impaired much off his normal game.

He is injured. That is a fact, or else you would not have seen that kind of price. But Nadal to retire, probably not..he will rather play the match in a 30 % condition than retire.

[Shark79]

It certainly ain't a bad line. Betfair are offering it at 1.26 right now (which is -385.38)

Nice line ... wow ...

[EaglesPhan36]

I still don't understand why you guys would insist on laying that much on a favorite regardless of who it is. Yeah there might be a 5% chance of Murray winning, but man if you lay $900 to win $200, you're asking for a good anal fisting. Only match I will probably go with in the men's quarters in the Schuettler/Clement match. Schuettler at + odds me likes.

[shifer]

I still don't understand why you guys would insist on laying that much on a favorite regardless of who it is. Yeah there might be a 5% chance of Murray winning, but man if you lay $900 to win $200, you're asking for a good anal fisting. Only match I will probably go with in the men's quarters in the Schuettler/Clement match. Schuettler at + odds me likes.

who says we are betting it? Just talking about Nadals injury.

[SBR Lou]

I still don't understand why you guys would insist on laying that much on a favorite regardless of who it is. Yeah there might be a 5% chance of Murray winning, but man if you lay $900 to win $200, you're asking for a good anal fisting. Only match I will probably go with in the men's quarters in the Schuettler/Clement match. Schuettler at + odds me likes.

There's value in both favorites and dogs, depend on the price you get. If you don't want to lay that much wood, bet on sets or throw in a two team multi. I think it's a bad strategy to purposely avoid all higher chalk because seems value would pass you by.

[chance]

I still don't understand why you guys would insist on laying that much on a favorite regardless of who it is. Yeah there might be a 5% chance of Murray winning, but man if you lay $900 to win $200, you're asking for a good anal fisting. Only match I will probably go with in the men's quarters in the Schuettler/Clement match. Schuettler at + odds me likes.

If only 5% chance for Murray I would take Nadal at -400. that equals 80% chance of win. 15% theoretical profit

[chance]

I give Murray at least a 33% chance. Injury or no injury

[big joe 1212]

You should get protection if he retires before the end of the 2nd set. But if he guts it out it would be a bad bet at that price. if hes healthy id bet my nuts on him!

[BuddyBear]

I would say the line is about right. I guess it all depends on your perspecitve. If you think Nadal would win this 90-95% then a -400 bet is a really good bet. Watching that Gasquet/Murray match you couldn't help but feel the electricity in the crowd. That's a big advantage for Murray IMO and certainly if he can get an early break or even a set, the crowd will only get behind him more....but I think Nadal wins in either 3 or 4 sets, but it won't be a cake walk.

Judging by his confidence, momentum, and home court...compunded with the possible injury that Nadal has, I would put Nadal on high upset alert.

[SBR Lou]

You should get protection if he retires before the end of the 2nd set. But if he guts it out it would be a bad bet at that price. if hes healthy id bet my nuts on him!

Agree. Maybe it is an overreaction though guys. They might not know any more than we do really, only Rafa and his immediate training people know at this moment in time.

[EaglesPhan36]

All I know is with the uncertainty of this year's draw, taking a big fave outside of Federer is risky in my books - but I don't bet anything over -200 in tennis in any case and usually not more than -150 just to my own likings.

[mathdotcom]

Nadal better than -1000?????

ALL-IN

[HeeeHAWWWW]

Might have a punt at 3-0, +130 at betfair. I'll skip the straight win though, got enough money on him to win the tournament at +400.


ps I love hearing Nadal isn't that great on grass, after he makes two Wimbledon finals in a row, and beats Djokovic, Roddick and Karlovic at the lightning quick courts of Queens. Not just any old Karlovic either, but on the top of his serve (he hit 39 aces, in THREE SETS). That record says he's the no2 grass courter on the planet.

[chance]

If you like Nadal you should hold off betting till just before the match. For 2 reaons.

1. You might hear he is more injured than we know.

2. More importantly their will be huge biased money on murray from the Brit punters. Forget -450 or -400. The price will go towards -300.