The official tennis wagering leans thread

[SBR Lou]

Verdasco
Clement
Baghdatis

Who are you leaning twd right now?

[bettilimbroke999]

I got a buck riding on Safin, after upsetting Djokovic and handling Seppi gotta feel he is in position to give Wawrinka a hell of a match

[SBR Lou]

I got a buck riding on Safin, after upsetting Djokovic and handling Seppi gotta feel he is in position to give Wawrinka a hell of a match

You are too sharp for your own good.

[bettilimbroke999]

Though I don't have a play on it, I agree Baghdatis has good value

[bettilimbroke999]

You are too sharp for your own good.

My exgfs never thought so, glad to hear my fellow degenerates appreciate me

[Wheell]

Not leaning anywhere. The plays:

Safin -105

Warwinka should be outclassed here. My worries are that Safin takes a dive (25%), or plays badly (20%). If neither happens, he wins (55%). One should rarely lay heavy wood with Safin, but -105 works for me.

Verdasco +178

Ancic has pissed me off lately. I have him winning this match a little under 60% of the time. Take him out Verdasco.

Nadal -740

Don't get me wrong, Youhzny scares the crap out of me. However, facing Nadal is a war and I don't think Youhzny has the ammo. I have Nadal winning this 92% of the time and I expect to back Nadal every round from here on out. I don't rank him as high as Federer on the surface, but the difference between them is negligable.

Cilic -185

Hate going against Clement, and I kid of expect to lose this, but I have Cilic a tier above Clement and expect him to win about 70% of the time. No player on the men's side has risen higher in my rankings than Cilic this tournament. Before the tournament this match would have been a lot closer. I have a ton of data on Clement so it is hard for him to move much.

Gasquet +122

A coin flip. No pressure on Murray. Oh wait, the wieght of a nation is on him. Gasquet has the skills to keep up with him until Murray cracks.

Baghdatis -200

Another favorite where I am crapping my pants. Lopez has played fantastically this tournament. I have Bags as a stronger all around player but Lopez matching him would be par for the course given his rate of play so far.

Tipsarevic -300

Schuttler has had a nice ride but a win here would be a stunner. He is outclassed.

Federer -1750

I would disbelieve if I saw an upset here. Neither I nor my spreadsheet give Hewitt a 5% chance.

On the women's side I like Venus, Peer, and Szavay.

My spider senses tell me I am going to get crushed tomorrow. Good luck to everyone who fades me.

[bettilimbroke999]

Nice writeup Wheel, hope you're right on Safin, gl

[SBR Lou]

Not leaning anywhere. The plays:

Safin -105

Warwinka should be outclassed here. My worries are that Safin takes a dive (25%), or plays badly (20%). If neither happens, he wins (55%). One should rarely lay heavy wood with Safin, but -105 works for me.

Verdasco +178

Ancic has pissed me off lately. I have him winning this match a little under 60% of the time. Take him out Verdasco.

Nadal -740

Don't get me wrong, Youhzny scares the crap out of me. However, facing Nadal is a war and I don't think Youhzny has the ammo. I have Nadal winning this 92% of the time and I expect to back Nadal every round from here on out. I don't rank him as high as Federer on the surface, but the difference between them is negligable.

Cilic -185

Hate going against Clement, and I kid of expect to lose this, but I have Cilic a tier above Clement and expect him to win about 70% of the time. No player on the men's side has risen higher in my rankings than Cilic this tournament. Before the tournament this match would have been a lot closer. I have a ton of data on Clement so it is hard for him to move much.

Gasquet +122

A coin flip. No pressure on Murray. Oh wait, the wieght of a nation is on him. Gasquet has the skills to keep up with him until Murray cracks.

Baghdatis -200

Another favorite where I am crapping my pants. Lopez has played fantastically this tournament. I have Bags as a stronger all around player but Lopez matching him would be par for the course given his rate of play so far.

Tipsarevic -300

Schuttler has had a nice ride but a win here would be a stunner. He is outclassed.

Federer -1750

I would disbelieve if I saw an upset here. Neither I nor my spreadsheet give Hewitt a 5% chance.

On the women's side I like Venus, Peer, and Szavay.

My spider senses tell me I am going to get crushed tomorrow. Good luck to everyone who fades me.

Thanks for your thoughts and good luck tomorrow.

I like that Serbian beauty tomorrow although I haven't been able to locate her MRI results or a reliable % she's at physically..

[Wheell]

Jancovic is my #1 favorite. However if I had access to betfair I would fade her.

[Wheell]

betlimbroke: Gl to Safin.

[SBR Lou]

Jancovic is my #1 favorite. However if I had access to betfair I would fade her.

Wow- surprised to see you say that. Is it just the injury cloud? The Thai woman has IMO been fortunate to advance to this point. Jelena is one of the only ladies living up to their seeding, I can only make a realistic case of the Serb losing in 3 if the knee is too sore.

[Wheell]

Check Tam's results from the tournament before Wimbledon. She is strong on the surface.

[Francis Sollozzo]

i have a hot one , will post within 1 hr

[SBR Lou]

i have a hot one , will post within 1 hr

I like her too.

[Wheell]

I am going on record:

Safin wins easily or plays a "Safin seems disinterested" dive.

[Francis Sollozzo]

i have a hot one , will post within 1 hr

J. Zheng -138 , she is good up to -145

how have you boys been doing? I'm great! thank you

[SBR Lou]

J. Zheng -138 , she is good up to -145

how have you boys been doing? I'm great! thank you

Talk about an overreaction... Zheng barely broke a sweat vs Ana she was handed the match..

[Stacocakes]

Here's the winner's, though because of heavy juice I am not betting them all:

Federer over hewitt easy. Hewitt beat federer earlier on in there careers when Hewitt was the number one overall but Federer has won the last 11 matches between the two. Hewitt also has a hip injury and is not 100% so his chances of winning are slim to none.Don't bet the 3-0 for fed though because Fed has a tendancy over his career to fall asleep during one of the sets because he gets bored.Hewitt should fight for the first two sets
Ancic playing some great tennis right now.Has the perfect game for wimbledon. These two played a couple weeks ago and Ancic took him out in two sets. Ancic will win this one but at -195?pass
Safin/Wawrinka - Safin is to inconsistant to place a bet on him. Would stay away from this match if I were you guys.The odds have it perfect,this match is a flip of the coin.Just depends which Safin shows up
Baghdatis/Lopez - Bagh is to inconsistant to back at -223. Lopez is not a dependable player either so if you have to take a player in this match, you would take Lopez just for the value. If I had a gun to my head I would take Bagh.
Tipsarevic/Schuettler - 4-13 record for Schuettler so far this year... how is he ever at this point?Oh ya he beat the stiff that is James Blake. I wouldn't back Schuettler in this match if you gave me odds of +800.Then again, I wouldn't back Tipsarevic in any match above -150. No play here. Tips wins though
Cilic/Clement - Scrub match.Next.Have clement at 5 bucks to win 5 g though so hope he wings
Gasquet/Murray -Gasquest has won both previous meetings between the two. I like Murray in this situation.Will have the crowd behind him.He's playing some great tennis. Gasquet has been awful all season but has started to put his game together here at wimbledon.Murray wins this match but it will be very close
Nadal/Youzhny - Odds are to big for nadal at -765.He will win but its not really worth it to back him just incase he loses.6-4 career record versus Youzhny. Youz can choke with the best players around.Wouldn't put any money on him especially against a player as mentally strong as Nadal. This match should be like the Keifer match where it is close for a set..maybe two, then the better player wins, Nadal.

[Stacocakes]

I think the Williams sisters will win but I just don't feel comfortable laying -800 and -700.Not worth it. Just watching them play takes years off my life.Sure they hit some great shots but its a 50/50 chance every shot whether it will be in or there will be an ue. Just can't stand watching matches like that.
Grass court aside,still don't understand why Kuz is not the favorite in her match. If you flipped the odds around, it wouldn't make much difference but at least Kuz would be a very small favorite. That seems like a more accurate line to me

[Francis Sollozzo]

Talk about an overreaction... Zheng barely broke a sweat vs Ana she was handed the match..

you can get all of A. Szavay as you want not me , good luck

[SBR Lou]

you can get all of A. Szavay as you want not me , good luck

Well it just sounds like too much stock is being vested in last round...

[woodg8]

These games are way too tough to call. I'd say Tipsarevic has a great chance of going through.

I like the value of Lopez at +220.5, he'll give Baghdatis a run for his money.

In the womens side, I like Chakvetadze at +129. She's much better value than they're giving for her, and Vaidisova hasn't been playing that great of late. She was pretty fortunate to get through against Stosur.

Tanasugarn at +345 looks the best bet for today. I think she'll actually win, or at least take the first set. Hedge out when you get the chance.

[SBR Lou]

Agreed with Chak. woodg..

[SBR Lou]

Anyone staying up till they start? Might as well aren't that far away.

[woodg8]

staying up? it's 11am!

There ain't many good matches on first, federer vs hewitt on in a couple of hours, but apart from that, not much else. The best games will be on in about 4/5 hours, Youzhny Nadal, Murray Gasquet, Wawrinka Safin, and it's not like there's Ivanovic or Sharapova to perv on

[Stacocakes]

Matches are starting
Penus and Weird Al Jankovic are playing right now
Zheng match to

[Stacocakes]

Just realized that the Kleybanova chick has a very poor serve
Venus is a ****ing UE machine so every game will be close of course

[Stacocakes]

Jankovic down a break early.Tans a point away from 5-2 in the first

[Stacocakes]

5-2 Verdasco.Very surprising.

[Stacocakes]

And there goes Jankovic
Glad she lost because if she had got to the finals and lost she would be ranked number one in the world and not deserving it

[woodg8]

Lovely, got a nice profit from that Tanasugarn game. Could have been much more if I didn't hedge out after the first set.

[smallon]

Lovely, got a nice profit from that Tanasugarn game. Could have been much more if I didn't hedge out after the first set.

Yes, lovely indeed.

Originally Posted by smallon View Post
I don't know, I think a small play on the Thai girl is warranted. She's been playing well lately and won her last tournament. She may end up getting beat but at +325 it's worth a shot...

[Stacocakes]

Fed had some problems in the tiebreak but he wins the first set then breaks to start the second.Its over

[Francis Sollozzo]

J. Zheng -138 , she is good up to -145

how have you boys been doing? I'm great! thank you

6-3 6-4

[Stacocakes]

Typical verdaso, break up and can serve out the set and match and he blows it and loses the set.Knew that was coming. can't stay him