could this be profitable

trytrytry · 08-05-11, 05:32 PM

depends if you can wager on an exchange and line shop you could find some situations to EEKKK out a tiny profit longterm.. likely not worth the effort unless you have dozens of outs, good exchanges, a slow moving local and LOTs of time..

ebbearsfb1 · 08-05-11, 06:53 PM

thanks anyone else?

ShogunRua · 08-05-11, 06:57 PM

back test it and get back to us

bobby heenan · 08-05-11, 07:01 PM

youd have to think its been tried before...but who knows

Rich Boy · 08-05-11, 07:13 PM

This theory comes up several times a year.

Every square in the world has thought of this "system". Just like martingale, you cant turn a series of -EV wagers into a +EV proposition, unless they are correlated and you are allowed to parlay them and this is not the case.

Do not attempt this, because you will lose

JohnGalt2341 · 08-05-11, 07:27 PM

Originally posted by ebbearsfb1

[COLOR=#000000 !important][FONT=verdana]long term,..... im strictly asking, so lets not all get excited and get your panties in a bunch... yes i know 30% of games end up in 1 run win/loses. so could playing the -1.5 on both teams work long term?

I'm curious as to what kind of results you will get. I thought about trying something like this as well but my idea is a bit different. Here's an example of my idea... take tonight's Dodgers vs Diamondbacks game:
I would take the Dodgers to win at +125 and the Diamondbacks -1.5 at +155. The only possible scenario where I would lose any money is if Arizona won by exactly 1 run(is there a site where I can find the probability of this happening?). I never did test it but I think I just might test 100 games at $1 per play. I'm sure millions of people have tried this before with no success but I would like to see the results for myself.

Rich Boy · 08-05-11, 07:32 PM

Originally posted by JohnGalt2341

I'm curious as to what kind of results you will get. I thought about trying something like this as well but my idea is a bit different. Here's an example of my idea... take tonight's Dodgers vs Diamondbacks game:
I would take the Dodgers to win at +125 and the Diamondbacks -1.5 at +155. The only possible scenario where I would lose any money is if Arizona won by exactly 1 run(is there a site where I can find the probability of this happening?). I never did test it but I think I just might test 100 games at $1 per play. I'm sure millions of people have tried this before with no success but I would like to see the results for myself.

Its quite easy, the books will give you this probability

Just take the Team -1.5 % and subtract it from the Team ML and that is the probability of winning by exactly 1 run.

wantitall4moi · 08-05-11, 07:40 PM

back when the alt runlines were really soft it was a license to print money. Nowadays theyre alitle tighter. You cant bet the board and hope they come in.

Another huge change now is the steroid era is basically over so run totals are lower these days which tends to lead to more 1 run games overall.

But for about 4 and a half season you could almost bet the board, get your 14-15% on one run games and still make a profit. If you sayed away from games with totals of 7.5 or less it was even better, but some of those alt run lines in those game on home teams were up over +400, so a hard number to lay off, so it was an nice enticement. These days those games are more like +340 or so, so almost a buck less. But from about 2003 to about a year after Pinnacle closed to US players it was right around +Ev on the blind. Especially if you cold work with some brokers to get better than public numbers.

I am sure there are some subsets now that would still work, but it greatly reduces your amount of bets you can make. So it slows down the roll over on them.

Dutch · 08-05-11, 07:42 PM

Originally posted by JohnGalt2341

I'm curious as to what kind of results you will get. I thought about trying something like this as well but my idea is a bit different. Here's an example of my idea... take tonight's Dodgers vs Diamondbacks game:
I would take the Dodgers to win at +125 and the Diamondbacks -1.5 at +155. The only possible scenario where I would lose any money is if Arizona won by exactly 1 run(is there a site where I can find the probability of this happening?). I never did test it but I think I just might test 100 games at $1 per play. I'm sure millions of people have tried this before with no success but I would like to see the results for myself.

Test it here with points.

wantitall4moi · 08-05-11, 07:45 PM

Originally posted by JohnGalt2341

I'm curious as to what kind of results you will get. I thought about trying something like this as well but my idea is a bit different. Here's an example of my idea... take tonight's Dodgers vs Diamondbacks game:
I would take the Dodgers to win at +125 and the Diamondbacks -1.5 at +155. The only possible scenario where I would lose any money is if Arizona won by exactly 1 run(is there a site where I can find the probability of this happening?). I never did test it but I think I just might test 100 games at $1 per play. I'm sure millions of people have tried this before with no success but I would like to see the results for myself.

The major problem with that way is AZ is the home team and thus the RL on them is a little more suspect. But if it was at LA and LA was +125 and AZ RL was +155 it would be worth a shot. A lot of guys play that angle as well. Taking a homedog on the ML and the road fav on the RL. Not as lucrative as the old Alt runline plays used to be, but easier to bet and they have a lot better chance of cashing as a 1 run game doesnt necessarily mean both lose.