Greenbrier Lock this week.

[yydouble]

I'm going with Chris Riley -150 over Tom Pernice Jr for 4 rounds at The Greenbrier this week.

Riley, known as one of the best putters on tour, just out-classes the Champion's Tour Member Pernice here.

Riles loves The Old White Course, he shot back to back 66's on the wknd. last year to tie for 36th. Pernice Missed the cut.

The course was ranked one of the easiest on tour last year but it has been lengthened and the fairways have been narrowed. It is also not as soft around the greens as it was last year so scores should be a touch higher.

The old man can't hang with the young gun in a "birdie fest" type of setting.

[gwiz]

good luck man sounds like a solid pick

I'm gonna sweat it with ya

C Riley (Tourn)
Money Line -155 for Game

[holygrail3]

although Pernice doesn't have enough stats to be ranked, you guys might be interested in the PGA power rankings at

http://www.databet.org/golf.php

[holygrail3]

A stat we heavily lean on for Putting is Strokes Gained. In that category, Chris Riley ranks 136 of 188. The other putting category we lean on is Putting Inside 10 feet. In this category Chris Riley ranks 125 of 188.

http://www.databet.org/golf.php

[yydouble]

Riles hasn't been getting it done this year but I would be shocked if he doesnt break par every day on this course in these conditions. This is a go against Pernice as much as a play on Riley. Pernice doesn't belong on the PGA tour and he knows it. He is having a good year on Champions Tour and had a great week at the Viking Classic (T2) a couple weeks ago then missed cut at The Canadian Open last week. 3 weeks in a row on the PGA Tour is a grind, going to be 100 degrees in W. Virgina this week. After 36 holes the old man will be longing for his golf cart on The Champions Tour, that is, if he makes the cut, no way he has enough gas left in the tank to keep up with the younger, more rested player over the weekend.

[yydouble]

A stat we heavily lean on for Putting is Strokes Gained. In that category, Chris Riley ranks 136 of 188. The other putting category we lean on is Putting Inside 10 feet. In this category Chris Riley ranks 125 of 188.

http://www.databet.org/golf.php

Thanks for the heads up! Love the stats. Who do you like this week?

[holygrail3]

Our 6 outright winners based on value are posted on the site for free - DataBet PGA Power Rankings

I can tell you Chris Couch, Bill Haas, Webb Simpson, and John Senden headline the field for us, John Merrick also has tremendous stats, but he's played in fewer PGA rounds than most everyone else and is coming off a terrible Canadian Open.... but he does have the ability to shoot in the low 60's needed here.

The 1 matchup that seems to good to be true is Verplank +110 v Chappell. We have Verplank rated 58 spots ahead of Chappell. In one of the most important stats that figures to hold weight in this tournament, Birdie Average, Verplank (61) is way ahead of Chappell (147).

[yydouble]

Really like the site. My matchup record is much better than you all but im un-documented. I took Verplank. Senden over Pettersson and Romero over JB Holmes. Pettersson is playing so bad it is a sin not to bet against him. Romero at +105 is one of the best values I've seen all year. Webb had a tough match vs Overton and Bill Hass was too expensive. (-210)

[holygrail3]

Romero +140 v Davis Love is very tempting as well. We have Romero rated slightly ahead of Love III and slightly behind JB. So we found the extreme value in Romero +140. Looks like Dimes has dropped it now to +135.

Senden over Pettersson was one of our plays as well.

Good Luck

DataBet PGA Power Rankings

[yydouble]

I got Romero +105 over JB. Love is playing too well. JB playing bad + this course set up doesnt suit him. Romero is playing best golf of his life and is a good bet vs anyone right now but Love scares me. Stats are great but I don't trust them implicitly.

[yydouble]

well, riles 1 over, pernice 2 under. so much for that one.

[holygrail3]

I agree with you that stats can't be trusted implicitly, and they shouldn't. The public is always behind Davis Love, which sweetens the play.

Birdie Average rank - Romero (16), Davis Love III (122).

Strokes Gained Putting rank - Romero (27), Davis Love III (146)

I just don't see Love III keeping pace over 4 rounds.

You are also right about JB's current form, but he is ranked 5th in Birdie Avg, so that immediately threw us off any play vs him.

Good Luck

DataBet PGA Power Rankings

[holygrail3]

well, riles 1 over, pernice 2 under. so much for that one.

Last week we were all over Vaughn Taylor +110 v Tom Gillis.

R1 - Vaughn 74, Gillis 82
R2 - Vaughn 77, Gillis 68

Never lost a matchup when I was up 8 strokes after the 1st round, especially when both players missed the cut.

DataBet PGA Power Rankings

[yydouble]

Wow Vaughn boat raced Gillis! Great pick there! I went with Levin over Pettersson and Ames over Oosty. Levin won easy. Ames won by a single shot, both he and Luis missed cut. That was my "go against anyone crossing the atlantic 3 times inside of 3 weeks" (oosthuizen) play.

[yydouble]

gotta go to work now. should have taken Webb!!!

[gmcarroll33]

Our 6 outright winners based on value are posted on the site for free - DataBet PGA Power Rankings

I can tell you Chris Couch, Bill Haas, Webb Simpson, and John Senden headline the field for us, John Merrick also has tremendous stats, but he's played in fewer PGA rounds than most everyone else and is coming off a terrible Canadian Open.... but he does have the ability to shoot in the low 60's needed here.

The 1 matchup that seems to good to be true is Verplank +110 v Chappell. We have Verplank rated 58 spots ahead of Chappell. In one of the most important stats that figures to hold weight in this tournament, Birdie Average, Verplank (61) is way ahead of Chappell (147).

I just came across this. I've got to win outright bets on all of them, and Woodland. I looked at basically every single thing you did as important+ some more, along with similar style tournaments/greens. Sunday should be entertaining!

[holygrail3]

when did you get them in, after round 3? i'd be interested in what the lines were, didn't have a chance to take a look overnight.

DataBet PGA Power Rankings

[gmcarroll33]

No pre tourney, Couch was 100-95/1, Haas was like 40/1, Senden 75/1, Merrick I took at 130/1 (I think he closed 160/1+ though)

[InTheDrink]

nice show there by stallings

bogey a par 5 and come back to birdie 18 and birdie the playoff hole

might even be able to give immy a run on the links

[holygrail3]

Couple day breather and then we'll have WGC Firestone rankings available. Only $49.99 for entire tournament.

Final Record from the Greenbrier Classic:

Round Matchups (8-6, +1.59)

Tourn Matchups (9-0, +9.54)

Total (17-6, +11.13)

DataBet PGA Power Rankings

[yydouble]

sorry gwiz, Riles played like crap.

[gwiz]

no apologies needed bud,we gamble.

he did indeed play bad but Pernice did melt away like you predicted.

I have learned that I just don't like them high prices no matter how good it looks

[sweethook]

well gl. with that yy