Do plays that look easy scare you away?

Ra77er · 07-26-11, 01:49 AM

Confidence in your ability to pick winners is a good thing.....I say go for the Over and don't think so much

StevoS · 07-26-11, 01:57 AM

Absolutely! Always confuses me how books expect to split public opinion evenly when a line is seemingly lopsided. It doesn't make someone sharp to take a line just because it looks strange and the average joe isn't gonna go against their gut. My only conclusion is that it's something obvious I just can't see. So yes, I tend to walk away and learn from the result as much as I can.

Extra Innings · 07-26-11, 01:58 AM

I would wait a little...

MichaelWaters · 07-26-11, 03:30 AM

yes i just bet on steve darcis in -123 thinking it should be -175. guaranteed loss

Rollins08 · 07-26-11, 03:50 AM

I usually jump on them, but i always think that it looks way to easy and I'll probably lose. I think my winning percentage on those is probably around 50%. But whenever I lose them I think i should have stayed away.

Shortstop · 07-26-11, 03:53 AM

Go with your gut feeling.

Don't over analyze.

Point and click.

Cheers!

Gee · 07-26-11, 03:56 AM

Dream will need to score 100 points.

How anyone can say that a Tulsa over is an easy play is beyond me. Have you seen them try to get the ball in the hole?

cleaveland · 07-26-11, 05:34 AM

Originally posted by Gee

Dream will need to score 100 points.

How anyone can say that a Tulsa over is an easy play is beyond me. Have you seen them try to get the ball in the hole?

The Shock average just under 70 points per game overall and 74 points per game at home. Believe it or not, the key thing is they're an up-tempo team that likes to run. The only team that they've played at home that plays an up-tempo pace like the Dream is Phoenix and they lost that game 86-78. That's 164 total.

Last season they played two games against Atlanta and they lost them 96-90 and 105-89. It's not either team is great, it's the style and the tempo they're gonna play that makes the over a really good play here (or at least it seems to be a good play but I'm scared by the total).

But, if your opinion represents the opinion of those who are taking the under then you've just convinced me that the over is definitely the right play.

Look, if Tulsa just scores their home average of 74 points and the Dream win by 9 as they're expected to (the current line is Dream -9) then the total would be 157. But, I don't expect the Dream to hold Tulsa to their average number of points at home because the Dream have the third worst defense in the league giving up 82.33 points per game. Meanwhile, the Shock have second worst defense in the league giving up 85.26 points per game.

The only things that worry me about this is that the Shock changed coaches a few games a go and it's possible that the new coach doesn't want them to run and gun anymore. Also, I hate betting on horrible teams because they're capable of anything.

Still, the Dream give up an average of 81.8 points per game on the road against the league so assuming the Shock are still playing an up tempo style this game should go well over just like season's two games between these teams did.

SoV · 07-26-11, 06:10 AM

You do know all that you listed is included in the line?

Take the WSox total yesterday, for example. Combined ERA was around 5 but the total was set at 9. UNDER would have been a square play. Total pushed at 9, I had Over 8.5

jjgold · 07-26-11, 06:19 AM

Lines are set for a reason, maybe at times they are off a few points

Stick to your data and make the play

zr2786 · 07-26-11, 07:08 AM

Any kind of pick is gonna make you nervous even if they are -1500

Roadtrip635 · 07-26-11, 08:52 AM

I usually double check and see if there's something I'm missing, injury I was unaware of, change in weather, etc. If none of those things have changed then I go with what I capped.

The worst are horse races. I cap a horse and expect odds of somewhere from 4-1 to 6-1 but at post time he's at 12-1 or more, I really want to start second guessing. That hesitation has cost me $ before though. The worst was a time I was at the Vegas Hilton cappin the next race at Keeneland. Cap the race and there is only one horse that stands out, compared to the rest should be an easy win morning line was 4-1, but I expect him to be the heavy chalk and lucky to get 3-2. I look up and see he's currently at 18-1, WTF! Instead of going straight to the window, only 3-4 minutes to post, but I stop and re-check the PP, thinking I must be missing something, but still looks like the only play. I rush to the window only one old guy in front of me, but the old guy has a million stupid questions, I'm getting real impatient and try to get the teller to ask the old guy to step aside but no such luck. The old guy finally places his $5 win bet when I hear the bell and "They're off!" I let out a few choice cuss words and the the teller apologizes and asks me to keep my voice down. I'm sitting there with two C-notes in my hand and see the horse went off at 23-1 and wins the race easily 6+ lengths under a fuggin' hand ride. If I hadn't stopped to double check myself I would have gotten to the window just before that old guy, still burns me up.

Tech N9ne · 07-26-11, 08:57 AM

Originally posted by cleaveland

I love the Shock/Dream over 156 but it looks really low to me so I can't take it. This happens to me from time to time, I always think the market/oddsmakers know something I don't and I usually end up regretting it.

Do plays that look easy scare you away?

only if JJ is on them

cleaveland · 07-26-11, 10:39 AM

Originally posted by Roadtrip635

I usually double check and see if there's something I'm missing, injury I was unaware of, change in weather, etc. If none of those things have changed then I go with what I capped.

The worst are horse races. I cap a horse and expect odds of somewhere from 4-1 to 6-1 but at post time he's at 12-1 or more, I really want to start second guessing. That hesitation has cost me $ before though. The worst was a time I was at the Vegas Hilton cappin the next race at Keeneland. Cap the race and there is only one horse that stands out, compared to the rest should be an easy win morning line was 4-1, but I expect him to be the heavy chalk and lucky to get 3-2. I look up and see he's currently at 18-1, WTF! Instead of going straight to the window, only 3-4 minutes to post, but I stop and re-check the PP, thinking I must be missing something, but still looks like the only play. I rush to the window only one old guy in front of me, but the old guy has a million stupid questions, I'm getting real impatient and try to get the teller to ask the old guy to step aside but no such luck. The old guy finally places his $5 win bet when I hear the bell and "They're off!" I let out a few choice cuss words and the the teller apologizes and asks me to keep my voice down. I'm sitting there with two C-notes in my hand and see the horse went off at 23-1 and wins the race easily 6+ lengths under a fuggin' hand ride. If I hadn't stopped to double check myself I would have gotten to the window just before that old guy, still burns me up.

Great story, thanks. Horrible luck there. I've had that happen with halftime lines but especially with betting between innings in baseball, you don't have much time there and the books make mistakes there frequently imho.

I couldn't resist taking the Dream/Shock over at 156.5 and it's up to 157 at some places. I think it could be 10 points too low still. We'll see what happens.

soli · 07-26-11, 10:42 AM

I always lower my bet or not take the bet if it seem to obvious who the pick should be. Also sometimes go the opposite way

cleaveland · 07-26-11, 11:29 AM

Originally posted by SoV

You do know all that you listed is included in the line?

Of course I know that, that's why I started this thread.

I've thought about what you said you quite a bit and there is something that is almost never accurately accounted for in lines though. That's when you have two run n gun pro basketball teams who are very poor on defense playing each other. The Dream/Shock match-up seems to be an example but an even better example was when D Antoni's Knicks teams faced Nelson's Warrior teams no matter how sky the totals where I think they always went over. I remember looking at those totals thinking I knew they would go over but just like the game we're discussing here I was scared because I thought it was too obvious.

After giving it some thought I think it's apparent why oddsmakers can't make the lines high enough to represent reality in those situations: it's hard to predict how fast these games will be played and if you make the line so high that represents true reality they wouldn't get balanced action. So, if my memory serves me correctly every Knicks-Warriors game during that era went over no matter how the total was, it was an amazing thing and the Dream/Shock match-up here is exactly the same situation: run n gun teams who very bad defensively.

It can't be properly accounted for in the line imho. Now I hope I didn't jinx myself here.