Thursday Parlay...

iceminers26 · 07-21-11, 07:14 AM

If those are the teams you like today, you're better off playing Yanks and Tigers on runline and Brew ml all as straights... why parlay?

Ra77er · 07-21-11, 07:23 AM

I am playing them all as straights as well as a few Unders today. This is just a small 1/2 unit parlay that would make an incredible day even better or just bury my a$$ a little more. I've had horrid results playing the RL on favs and simply prefer to lay the extra juice rather than sweating out the runline. I've seen some data suggesting the smaller fav's (-150ish down to -110) have been profitable on the runline but just personal preference is to avoid it.

BigDan · 07-21-11, 07:39 AM

i think the more important thing to consider with rls is how frequently a certain team wins gms by 1. i know rangers are a very good example of a team that you actually profit more if you bet only their rls as opposed to mls, chisox another team that doesnt seem to win many 1 run affairs. And of coarse looking for gms where you believe there will be a lot of runs scored also seems to favor rl plays. personally i like rrl on dogs but certainly times and teams to consider RLs with. BOL on your parlay.

jeffksu · 07-21-11, 08:33 AM

Good luck on all your plays..Str8, Rl's and or parlay's...Hope you have a huge day and win'em all...they look good ...Good luck to ya..

mtcook21 · 07-21-11, 08:34 AM

Don't trust the Brewers to win 3 in a row on the road, and Kennedy is pretty good for the Dbags.., GL

Dabeergod · 07-21-11, 08:37 AM

Brewers are the odd team odd out of the 3. Dbacks win today.

Ra77er · 07-21-11, 08:38 AM

Originally posted by BigDan

i think the more important thing to consider with rls is how frequently a certain team wins gms by 1. i know rangers are a very good example of a team that you actually profit more if you bet only their rls as opposed to mls, chisox another team that doesnt seem to win many 1 run affairs. And of coarse looking for gms where you believe there will be a lot of runs scored also seems to favor rl plays. personally i like rrl on dogs but certainly times and teams to consider RLs with. BOL on your parlay.

I wish I had some better data on RL's factoring in divisional opponents which I believe lead to tighter games. I do have the data on which teams have been profitable on the RL this year but for me personally I have a hard enough time squeaking out wins vs ML let alone adding in the -1.5 into my handicapping. Anyways thank you for the words fellas and hope you guys have a profitable Thursday.

tshizzle · 07-21-11, 08:39 AM

im not sure on the brewers today.

Ra77er · 07-21-11, 08:44 AM

I have the Brew Crew winning this game at around a 53.7% (-115) clip, so I feel like I've got some value on the + side today. Best of luck to all snake backers though, Im far from a solid baseball capper.

Philphan · 07-21-11, 09:04 AM

Regarding the Run lines...away teams are always a better run line play while home teams are always better to stick with the ML

Philavanh · 07-21-11, 11:43 AM

GL on your play....cash this parlay in buddy

BroDog73 · 07-21-11, 11:54 AM

For the future, consider playing them at -1 instead of the runline. It takes some juice off your bigger favs, but doesn't expose you to as much risk. Plus, if one of the teams only wins by 1 (a push), it won't destroy your parlay. If your book doesn't have -1 lines, you can create it by placing money on the ml and rl to accomplish the same thing.

BroDog73 · 07-21-11, 11:54 AM

Good luck!

Dabeergod · 07-21-11, 12:23 PM

Originally posted by BroDog73

If your book doesn't have -1 lines, you can create it by placing money on the ml and rl to accomplish the same thing.

What if the team you bet on the ML and the RL loses? Don't you lose double

dj_destroyer · 07-21-11, 12:26 PM

Call me a sharp poster then bet against me...?

At least one of us will be right.

Ra77er · 07-21-11, 12:32 PM

Originally posted by dj_destroyer

Call me a sharp poster then bet against me...?

At least one of us will be right.

Sorry DJ, didn't see your snakes play prior to playing this.

I do have an out that offers -1's and I am aware of the chalky player's increased % to simply breakeven. I have a mlb thread here and I'm running about 55-44 right now with posted plays but because Im such a chalk homer Im only up this season single digit's. I also prefer to simply flat bet, regardless of strength of my plays only during baseball. It's just a preference and lowers my risk during the long baseball season.

ThaTopMoron · 07-21-11, 01:22 PM

all 3 teams road teams... this won't hit.

dj_destroyer · 07-22-11, 12:17 AM

Originally posted by dj_destroyer

Call me a sharp poster then bet against me...?

At least one of us will be right.

It wasn't you.

sweethook · 07-22-11, 01:57 AM

parlays are realy tuff in bb , youl need some points , gl

dabomguy11 · 07-22-11, 05:22 AM

Originally posted by Dabeergod

What if the team you bet on the ML and the RL loses? Don't you lose double

You place a 1/2 unit on the ML and a 1/2 unit on the RL. Thus, if your team wins by 2+ runs, you win both. If your team wins by 1 run, you push, and if your team loses, well, you lose your entire unit. Thus creating a pseudo -1 wager if a "real" -1 wager is not available.

Ra77er · 07-22-11, 09:46 AM

Ugh horrible parlay....1-2 for the day. Several posters liked the Snakes, yet it was too late /banghead. Grats on all your winners yesterday.