Shopping for Bases Futures

Ganchrow · 03-28-06, 08:19 PM

This spreadsheet can be used to compare different season totals between books.

For example:
Arizona
Let's say that your handicapping tells you that you expect Arizona on average to win 73¾ games next season. Pinnacle and Greek are offering the following:

Pinnacle
o73 -116
u73 +100

Greek
o74½ +115
u74½ -135

Which is better?

Enter Expected Season Wins (73.75), First Total (73), First Over Line (-116), First Under Line (+100), Second Total (74.5), Second Over Line (+115), and Second Under Line (-135) into the spreadsheet.

You see that the Pinnacle line implies a 2.2% expected profit on the over and a 9.8% expected loss on the under.

You see that the Greek line implies a 2.8% expected loss on the over and a 4.6% expected loss on the under.

Therefore, the Pinnacle over would yield greater expected profit than the Greek over, and the Greek under would yield lower expected loss than the Pinnacle under.

Lastly the equivalent over and under lines show what the lines would need to be at the second to match the expected preofit or loss at the first book. In this case we see that in terms of expected profit, o73 -116 is equivalent to o74½ +126.2 and u73 +100 is equivalent to u74½ -154.9.

bigboydan · 03-29-06, 01:09 PM

alot of different numbers on this team i see.

Texas
. . . . .Bet365 . .81. . .-140 . +110
. . . . .Cris . . . 81½ . .-115 . -105
. . . . .Pinnacle . 81. . .-127 . +111
. . . . .The Greek. 81½ . .-110 . -110
. . . . .WSEX . . . 80½ . .-130 . +100

Illusion · 03-29-06, 02:40 PM

Originally posted by bigboydan

alot of different numbers on this team i see.

Same could be said about Tampa Bay, Seattle, Pittsburgh

Willie Bee · 03-30-06, 10:09 AM

Several UNDER bets caught my eye while I was putting the list together...

Reds u73 +117 at Pinnacle
Rockies u70 +104 at Pinnacle
Rockies u68½ +120 at The Greek
Pirates u76 +110 at Pinnacle and Bet365

bigboydan · 03-30-06, 12:42 PM

WB, that Pirates u76 +110 does look perty inticing to me as well.