7 reasons why Big Brown is going down today

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  • daggerkobe
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 03-25-08
    • 10744

    #1
    7 reasons why Big Brown is going down today
    1) Cracked hoof. If it isn't a big deal why didnt he practice for three days this week?

    2) Post position. Being #1 is far worse than #20 because he could get bogged down at the rails. This means he'll have to get off to faster start to avoid getting trapped by other horses.

    3) No steroids. Without roids he's an ordinary horse. Just like all the human athletes that take roids.

    4) 1 1/2 miles. Better horses have come up short due to this distance. And the fact he has to jump out to a lead due to his poor post position, lack of exercise this week and no roids. He will get tired.

    5) Bad karma. The owner, the trainer and the jockey all talking trash. It'll come back to bite em in the ass!!!!!

    6) -400. Why would anyone lay that much on an injured horse.

    7) I am 0-2 vs BB but they third time's the charm!
  • Wheell
    SBR MVP
    • 01-11-07
    • 1380

    #2
    BB is running against some of the slowest animals I have ever seen. If he is healthy enough to run the -400 price is fair.
    Comment
    • pavyracer
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 04-12-07
      • 82860

      #3
      Comment
      • seaborneq
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 09-08-06
        • 22556

        #4
        The politically correct thing to say is Big Brown is going to lose, not going down. No one wants to see Big Brown get hurt/put down.
        Comment
        • BandwagonFan
          SBR Hustler
          • 10-30-07
          • 77

          #5
          I am no horse expert and these may be some of the slowest horses...supposedly, but let me add a couple of other points.

          - Of the last 20 horses having to win the Belmont to complete the triple crown, only 3 have won...15%
          - Out of 31 horses needing the Belmont to win the triple crown, 11 have won...35%

          So, my play will be a small bet on either Dennis of Cork or just a small play on the field at +345.
          Comment
          • Wheell
            SBR MVP
            • 01-11-07
            • 1380

            #6
            Bandwagon: If I recall correctly only 2 other horses have won the first 2 races by as many lengths as BB. Both won the triple crown. I'd say that context matters and most triple crown potentials have faced much tougher fields in the Belmont.
            Comment
            • bettilimbroke999
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 02-04-08
              • 13254

              #7
              Originally posted by daggerkobe
              7) I am 0-2 vs BB but they third time's the charm!
              Great advertisement! What you don't realize is that this is one of the weakest years for horseracing, BB is a great horse, his competition is terrible, the one horse that posed a serious threat was scratched, all signs point to BB winning, it is possible for him to become totally trapped, but it is actually less likely in a distance race to become trapped long enough to not be able to pull out of it and make a run later on. This race is less about the talent of BB and more about the lack of talent of the other horses, in horse racing nothing is a sure thing but this is about as close to it as you can get. -350 that they have it at Matchbook is very fair odds IMO.
              Comment
              • BandwagonFan
                SBR Hustler
                • 10-30-07
                • 77

                #8
                Originally posted by Wheell
                Bandwagon: If I recall correctly only 2 other horses have won the first 2 races by as many lengths as BB. Both won the triple crown. I'd say that context matters and most triple crown potentials have faced much tougher fields in the Belmont.
                Crap...just changed my mind. All in on Big Brown! Actually, I have no idea on where to go. All I know is that there may be some value with the field at +345 for a small play.
                Comment
                • William Lee
                  SBR Hustler
                  • 02-11-08
                  • 85

                  #9
                  How can you say Post #1 is a bad post going 1 1/2 Miles? You are kidding, correct? This post will NOT hurt Brownies chances. If anything it will help him. He ran both the Derby and Preakness 3 wide till the stretch and still took off like a cannon shot when asked. Brownie can wire this crappy field if jockey decides to do so. EASILY! NO Casino Drive = TRIPLE CROWN WINNER! Exacta is 1/10 COLD!
                  Comment
                  • daggerkobe
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 03-25-08
                    • 10744

                    #10
                    Hellllllllllllllll
                    Yessssssssssssssssssss

                    Told u without roids he's nothing!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

                    Just won +300 for $1500!!!!!!!!
                    Comment
                    • daggerkobe
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 03-25-08
                      • 10744

                      #11
                      You can't tell me #1 position didnt hurt him. He had a heck of a time navigating to the outside.

                      **** yeahhhhhhh!!!!!!!!!!!
                      Comment
                      • daggerkobe
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 03-25-08
                        • 10744

                        #12
                        All announcers blaming steroids now
                        Comment
                        • treece
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 11-28-07
                          • 6298

                          #13
                          Originally posted by daggerkobe
                          third time's the charm!
                          Comment
                          • BandwagonFan
                            SBR Hustler
                            • 10-30-07
                            • 77

                            #14
                            I'm gonna bump this thread since I just got home and am drunk. Field is good!!
                            Comment
                            • BandwagonFan
                              SBR Hustler
                              • 10-30-07
                              • 77

                              #15
                              Big Brown sucks at life
                              Comment
                              • hanco21
                                SBR MVP
                                • 01-19-06
                                • 3414

                                #16
                                It cracks me up Dutrow is still looking for excuses why his horse lost. All you have to do is look at the bloodlines and this horses says 1m. Churchill and Pimlico are speed tracks which probably helped Brown get the distance. There was no way he was staying at 1 1/2 and to bet the field 7/2 odds was the best value you will see in a long time. I love it when a cocky trainer goes down.

                                EASY MONEY
                                Comment
                                • hanco21
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 01-19-06
                                  • 3414

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by William Lee
                                  How can you say Post #1 is a bad post going 1 1/2 Miles? You are kidding, correct? This post will NOT hurt Brownies chances. If anything it will help him. He ran both the Derby and Preakness 3 wide till the stretch and still took off like a cannon shot when asked. Brownie can wire this crappy field if jockey decides to do so. EASILY! NO Casino Drive = TRIPLE CROWN WINNER! Exacta is 1/10 COLD!
                                  wrong
                                  Comment
                                  • purecarnagge
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 10-05-07
                                    • 4843

                                    #18
                                    all the BB homers just lost a shitload.
                                    Comment
                                    • pirate
                                      SBR High Roller
                                      • 05-18-08
                                      • 216

                                      #19
                                      Odds why BB failed
                                      cracked hoof -300
                                      bled -110
                                      jockey error +110
                                      could't go the distance +200
                                      trainer a smuck -500
                                      Comment
                                      • Cloak & Dagger
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 11-15-07
                                        • 4781

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by pirate
                                        Odds why BB failed
                                        cracked hoof -300
                                        bled -110
                                        jockey error +110
                                        could't go the distance +200
                                        trainer a smuck -500
                                        you should be a linesmaker.....sportsbook manager material
                                        Comment
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