Make NO BETS at All on Big Brown on Saturday . . .

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  • ritehook
    SBR MVP
    • 08-12-06
    • 2244

    #1
    Make NO BETS at All on Big Brown on Saturday . . .
    . . . because betting, like any investment, is all about value. You have to get it more than give it to have any chance to finish ahead of the pack.

    Can't get any at all with Big Brown. No, not even in exactas, tris, superfectas - whatever whacked out combo you may be considering. He will have the living hell bet out of him in all combinations. (Meaning if you copper him and win, you'll get a lottery type payday.)

    BB absolutely belongs to the public. I don't care if he's the second coming of Man 'o War or Secretarial, there is ZERO value in going near him.

    Becuuse it ain't just the racing public who will be all over him like a cheap suit.

    Huge crowds of folk who don't know a furlong from a fetlock will be buying BB tickets.

    Just to have a winning ticket on the first Triple Crown winner in 3 decades.

    If BB wins (and I hope he doesn't) YOU WILL SEE WINNING TICKETS ON HIM BEING SOLD ON EBAY, STARTING A FEW HOURS AFTER THE RACE, AND CONTINUING FOR MONTHS.

    It's a huge bonanza for Belmont and the state of NY, all those uncashed tickets. They go into the state's general welfare fund.

    You'll also see a lot of programs being hawked on eBay, and all kind of race day sh1t.

    With this kind of public hysteria, there is definitely value in trying to beat him, by seeing if someone else can get to the wire first, or by dutching him out of the win and place and looking for a consequent humongous exacta.

    THERE WAS NEVER A HORSE THAT COULDN'T BE RODE, AND NEVER A RIDER THAT COULDN'T BE THROWED. - old cowboy saying
  • SBR Lou
    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
    • 08-02-07
    • 37863

    #2
    Like I said here...

    The official big brown will NOT place thread..
    Comment
    • robzilla
      SBR MVP
      • 10-25-07
      • 3556

      #3
      I heard Casino Drive or whatever that hose from Japan is called is going to do good.
      Comment
      • SBR Lou
        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
        • 08-02-07
        • 37863

        #4
        Inside info- someone will pull a Tonya Harding on BB.
        Comment
        • ritehook
          SBR MVP
          • 08-12-06
          • 2244

          #5
          Right. Somehow I missed that thread.

          Posters are right, tho, to say that a quarter crack is farily common, and different horses readt and recover at different speeds.

          But a couple of weeks is, in any case, a short time to bring an animal back from this kind of injury. Because there is a possibility of aggravating it.

          And this is a mile and a half race. And Sat temps in NY are forecast to be sultry, hot, humid.

          Most of these guys, including BB, this is the longest race they will run in their careers.

          It is always wise, long-run, to bet against fad, hype and hysteria. Just because of the great value in betting agaist this public hero means I will get some bets in on the Belmont, even if I actually think BB should win.

          Because of the odds, that's waht it's all about . . .
          Comment
          • ritehook
            SBR MVP
            • 08-12-06
            • 2244

            #6
            I'll likely look for a horse that has shown both front running ability, or close stalk to pace, that also has proven stamina.

            Hopefully, something good from Europe is in this. They often benefit from first time race day Lasix and bute, and they are accustomed to running on courses like Belmont, with those wide turns
            Comment
            • ritehook
              SBR MVP
              • 08-12-06
              • 2244

              #7
              ego bump

              for rodomontade reasons I'll bump this

              crazy, dagger and I all started threads warning agasinst betting BB'

              It's not just that we were right.

              Even if BB had won, we would have been right. You have to take a long view on most type of investments (including sports and horsse betting).
              Comment
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