Is the Illinois Lotto +EV now?

[d2bets]

Jackpot is currently $24 million (paid over 26 years). The jackpot starts at just $2 million. It usually increases either 250k or 500k each time it rolls over, so I think it's rolled over like more than 50 times now, more than 4 months without a winner. odds on a single combo (6 numbers out of 52 total) hitting is just over 10mil to 1 and a $1 ticket gets you two combos. So if I understand this correctly, a single ticket is a little over 5mil to 1 to win, but it now pays more than $8 million lump sum after taxes. Of course, it's possible it could split, but given that nobody has cashed in months it seems the game is unpopular and that seems fairly unlikely. Plus, you win $3 for 3/6; around $40 for 4/6 and around $900 for 5/6.

Even discounting utility arguments, just math-wise, isn't this a rare +EV Lotto? Any math guys have an opinion?

[Albert Pujols]

Good luck.

[FuzzyDunlop]

1:10,179,260 overall but you say you get two plays per $1?

If so, from a straight EV calculation of you being the only person playing then it is a positive EV wager. You get into a huge gray area of number of overall tickets sold that could bump that number up substantially depending on the likelihood of having only one winner, can also go up if ancillary prizes are paid out of the jackpot.

[rm18]

Looks like it, I remember the a bunch of Reds players won the lottery when it was +EV they bought tons of tickets.

[I/O]

Thanks for the reminder.

I'll play today.

[d2bets]

My bad. It's actually a little over 20 million per panel; 10 million per $1 ticket. Ancillary prizes are not paid out of jackpot. My guesstimate would be that now that's it's rolled over from $2 million to $24 million, it's just now close to +EV, maybe slightly better depending on how many tickets are bought, which I think tends to be pretty low.

Also, I think the current value would be more than $8 million. Treasury rates are low so I think present value would be closer to 60% and then the total more than like 41-42% rather than 33%, after taxes. So I think after taxes the net payout to a single winner would be right around the odds to win.

[donnyguru]

Thanks for the headsup. Hope I win so I can flee this rat hole of a state.

[d2bets]

$24.75 million next game. Someone's going to win this next week.

[cockblocker]

Win that and deposit 1 mil at 5 dimes or The Greek.

[LostBankroll]

Deposit into 5dimes. Ask TOnie to raise your limits to 100k per play including WTA tennis

[LVHerbie]

Justin7's video has alot of application...

[d2bets]

Justin7's video has alot of application...

He had me until the lottery part LMAO.

"Unless you have at least $34 million, risking $1 on the lottery is too much and you're likely to lose it all if you keep doing that".

OK, even if they run this Powerball lottery every single day, that's $365 per year. To lose it all, the $34 million, you would have to live for 93,150 years. I'll take my chances.

[gryfyn1]

He had me until the lottery part LMAO.

"Unless you have at least $34 million, risking $1 on the lottery is too much and you're likely to lose it all if you keep doing that".

OK, even if they run this Powerball lottery every single day, that's $365 per year. To lose it all, the $34 million, you would have to live for 93,150 years. I'll take my chances.

the point being that it doesn't look at a finite set of outcomes such as one per day

[d2bets]

the point being that it doesn't look at a finite set of outcomes such as one per day

Well that's nice in a theoretical world, but using a real life example in a way that is impossible (infinite $300 million lotteries per day) is kinda confusing and silly. In the real world if you bet $1 on each Powerball (I think that's what he said), they only run that maybe once per day, there are not infinite $300 million lotteries. So if you bet $1 per day on a lottery, you're not going broke.

[LVHerbie]

Well that's nice in a theoretical world, but using a real life example in a way that is impossible (infinite $300 million lotteries per day) is kinda confusing and silly. In the real world if you bet $1 on each Powerball (I think that's what he said), they only run that maybe once per day, there are not infinite $300 million lotteries. So if you bet $1 per day on a lottery, you're not going broke.

Limiting the amount and frequency of your bets doesn't change the math although it usually (similar to casino system sellers who tell you to quit after you won x dollars and come back tomorrow) helps hide the fact that you making a bad bet...

But sure if you are going to ignore things like this (and others like kelly, loss of utility, taxes, and potential to end up sharing the prize pool with other winners) I would have to change my answer as it sounds you found something that clearly offers alot of value...