Need Hockey Math Sharp Help

[pavyracer]

Jun 01 - 8:00 PM
2011 STANLEY CUP - EXACT SERIES RESULT

1
BOSTON BRUINS 4-0

+2500

2
BOSTON BRUINS 4-1

+1200

3
BOSTON BRUINS 4-2

+650

4
BOSTON BRUINS 4-3

+750

5
VANCOUVER CANUCKS 4-0

+750

6
VANCOUVER CANUCKS 4-1

+325

7
VANCOUVER CANUCKS 4-2

+400

8
VANCOUVER CANUCKS 4-3

+375

Jun 01 - 8:00 PM
2011 STANLEY CUP - TOTAL GAMES PLAYED IN SERIES

1
OVER GAMES 5.5

-175

2
UNDER GAMES 5.5

+145

OK How come the Canucks 4-1 is priced as a favorite price +325 for all possible outcomes for exact series result but the under 5.5 games is a dog at +145 compared to over?

[BIGDAY]

This is going to drive me to drink...

[sharpcat]

Remove the vig and the 4 outcomes less than 5.5 games is roughly +141 in the Exact Series market.

Boston 4-0= 3.4042%
Boston 4-1= 6.8084%
Vanc 4-0= 10.4128%
Vanc 4-1= 20.8256%

SUM= 41.4509%
Fair ML= 141.2493

[pavyracer]

Remove the vig and the 4 outcomes less than 5.5 games is roughly +141 in the Exact Series market.

Boston 4-0= 3.4042%
Boston 4-1= 6.8084%
Vanc 4-0= 10.4128%
Vanc 4-1= 20.8256%

SUM= 41.4509%
Fair ML= 141.2493

Thanks.

I like the under 5.5 games because I have a small edge (I think).

[boeing power]

Because the canucks play at home in game 5. The books believe the canucks win series in 5 games or 7 games. If the series goes to 6 games the bruins will be at home in game 6 and will be favored.

[sharpcat]

Thanks.

I like the under 5.5 games because I have a small edge (I think).

One of those 5 bets likely has value since one market says fair price is +141 and the other says fair price is +156

[CanuckG]

Take over 5.5 games. Hell take over 6.5