Heat had just a 1% chance of winning the game with 3:14 left

[Dad]

According to 10,000 simulations done by Accuscore.com, the Heat had just a 1% chance of winning the game with 3:14 left:

Including the regular season, the Chicago Bulls were 53-0 when leading by double-digits in the fourth quarter. So, with only 3:14 remaining in Game 5, and the Bulls leading by 12 points a win appeared all but certain.

The Miami Heat had other plans though, finishing the game on an 18-3 run to advance to the NBA Finals for the second time in franchise history.

According to 10,000 simulations done by Accuscore.com, the Heat had just a 1 percent chance of winning the game with 3:14 remaining.

Read more: http://espn.go.com/blog/TrueHoop/pos...ve-to-win-east

[ngates815]

Dallas, the other night had a .7% chance of winning when they were down 15 or whatever against OKC. Yes I was on OKC, unhappy.

Last night I was on Heat ML.


Very happy to be on the other side of luck.

[jjgold]

Interesting

Common denominator both teasm that collapsed had real young guys

[WeinketoWarrick]

I was on the Thunder...that one was definitely worse...

[Iwinyourmoney]

Just shows what this Miami team is capable of

[boondoggle]

People who bet real money on playoffs....should not be upset when it goes bye bye.

[dudekid]

actually, B Lang was on the bulls so there was at least a 97% chance the heat would be winning

[the_situation]

was on Thunder and Bulls....

[FreeFall]

Young teams were really given up it seems.

Not to mention a four point play with made FT and a consecutive 3 isn't a high probabliity of happening

[eidolon]

Maybe Lebron has turned a new leaf and is performing in the playoffs.

[darkghost]

was on Thunder and Bulls....

Same.

[BRAVES1985]

refs called a great series


stern had nothin to do with this series


bosh is a bitch

[doublej95]

it was an impressive comeback.

[Whippit]

wooly bullies had just a 1% chance of winning the game with 48:00 left

then again with 0:00 left

dad, my simulations show we need more accutitty & accuheiny

[Git Lo]

Also Chicago was 53-0 when Up 10+ points with 3 minutes left. Heat have shattered a lot of records this year, next year its going to be a massacre.

[thezbar]

Also Chicago was 53-0 when Up 10+ points with 3 minutes left. Heat have shattered a lot of records this year, next year its going to be a massacre.

They get some guard and board help in the off season they will be very strong next season.

[dj_destroyer]

Bosh is sick. Wade is sick. James is sick.

Heat win 5 rings in the next 8 years.

[suicidekings]

Bulls entering the 4Q with a 5+ point lead in 2010

The lead with 3:14 is very arbitrary. However this is a more realistic game situation to compare.

[k13]

Bulls had 1% chance to win this series.

[panik]

Was on Bulls last night, good thing I only had 30 POINTS in them.

[Karim]

Game 5
Pick: Chicago (-3) Result: 12 Point lead with 3.14 left, but lost obv.
Stake: 4/10 Odds: 1.93
Game 5
Pick: Oklahoma ML Result: 15 points with 5 mins to go
Stake: 2/10 Odds: 3.72
Game 4
Pick: Chicago ML Result: overtime, then bustout
Stake: 1/10 Odds: 2.94



yoyo , at least i can tell my grandchilds about that.

[bureK]

Bosh was sick because Boozer is a loser. Not happening vs Dallas.

[JR007]

i WOULD NOT PUT TOO MUCH CREDENCE IN ACCURESCORE...THEY AND THE DUNKEL INDEX....ARE OK FOR REFERENCE.....BUT

[sneak-a-peak]

i had 5dimes live betting up at the time and you could of gotten mia +10.5 -110 and ML was+2750. some people were betting bulls ML at that time at -5500 because it ended up at -6000......

boy how would you like to be those poor sorry people today?

[durito]

pinny moved from -10,000 to -30,000 10k limits. someone drop a mil?

[d2bets]

12 point lead @ 3:14? I think 1% is probably too high. It was literally almost a perfect storm. If Miami had just scored a 2 point basket every time down they probably would have lost. Their 7 possessions in that last 3:14 resulted in:
1. 2 points
2. 2 points
3. 3 points
4. 4 points
5. 3 points
6. 2 points
7. 2 points

They scored on 7 straight possessions, 18 points. If they had just scored 2 points every possession they probably lose. 3-3 on 3's, 3-3 on 2's and 3-4 FT's. That is truly incredible to say the least. How often do you see 18 points in 7 possessions?

[TheGambler]

between that and the Thunder the other night, my balance suffered greatly

[poochiecollins]

The simulations might be using all the right assumptions.