Psychological persective: why do we have cold streaks

[pico]

The obvious answer is the randomness of the games, but this is not what I want to address here. What I want to address is the psychological reason why cold streaks usually follows a hot streak.

Because of risk homeostasis. Risk homeostasis is a psychological tendency to maintain a preferred level of risk, so that people increase their risk level when environmental improvements are introduced.

Now to put in the context of a regular recreaional gambler...a gambler usually go 40-60 on an average day...lose few, win few...either break even or lose a little. Now once a while, that gambler will hit a hot streak...going 9-2 or 10-0. Once that hot streak starts, that gambler's percieved risk of the games will decrease. Thus, increase the risk exposure either by betting more games or taking more long shots or other crazy stuff people on hot streak do. The results is pretty predictable. More risk exposure = higher chance of crash and burn.

My advise is that after a great day, take a break...that way you'll be betting with a clear head. That is why I am taking it easy and only betting 1 game.

I hope by reading this, you will reduce some your cold streak in the future.

[SlickFazzer]

When you get on a hot streak, you think everything you touch should turn to gold. You don't study as much - and you end up making bad picks. the bad picks turn into the losing streak.

Plus if the winning streak never reversed itself a bit, we would all be wealthy SOB's...

[69882000]

Do you study psychology by any chance?

[pico]

Do you study psychology by any chance?

nope, psychology is for sorority girls. i studied economics.

[diogee]

That is why I always say on to tomorrow. I try to block out the results from the previous day...good or bad. This usually works for me since I realize that yesterdays results have no bearing at all on todays results although if I have several bad days in a row then I let it effect my mindset.