Aussie Rule Football Round 9

Rosa · 05-23-08, 01:43 AM

Winners in bold.

Collingwood v Geelong
Carlton v Fremantle
Port Adelaide v Sydney
West Coast v Adelaide
Essendon v Richmond
Brisbane v St Kilda
Melbourne v Hawthorne
Bulldogs v Kangaroos

pico · 05-23-08, 02:00 AM

Fri 5/23 333 Collingwood Magpies +25.5 -113 +337
02:40 AM 334 Geelong Cats -25.5 +103 -387

magpies already moved a full pt.

Rosa · 05-23-08, 02:14 AM

picoman, what do you think of Fremantle at -112? I think it's a pretty decent bet. Although they have only won 1 game this season, they could have easily won a few more.

twinky99 · 05-23-08, 07:21 AM

hi guys, im thinking of betting on

richmond
dogs
crows
lions

what do you all think?

pico · 05-23-08, 07:24 AM

134-48 coll...blow out

twinky99 · 05-23-08, 07:34 AM

congrats on the win picoman

Rosa · 05-23-08, 05:34 PM

Twinky, they are obvious picks. All the teams are expected to win. But was anyone predicting Geelong to be blown out of the water by Collingwood. Then again we already have one upset, I don't think we will see anymore this round.

Essendon v Richmond
Richmond have played well against the three top teams in the league. They should easily beat Essendon.

West Coast v Adelaide

Adelaide should have no problems with West Coast. It is not as daunting as it once was to travel to Perth.

Brisbane Lions v St Kilda

St Kilda aren't playing very good at the moment and have a few key players missing for this match. Brisbane are running smoothly and will take the match.

Western Bulldogs v North Melbourne

Bulldogs are playing such good football at the moment and won me some nice cash v sydney a couple of rounds back. North Melbourne are a good and dangerous side but haven't looked that great in the last couple of weeks. Might be a close match but Bulldogs should prevail in the end.

GL

pico · 05-23-08, 10:30 PM

Sat 5/24 335 Carlton Blues +108
09:10 PM 336 Fremantle Dockers -118

game starts in 30 min. gl

pico · 05-24-08, 01:55 AM

97-88 carlton...lost

pico · 05-24-08, 04:17 AM

Sat 5/24 339 Essendon Bombers +23.5 -102 +285
02:40 AM 340 Richmond Tigers -23.5 -108 -325
Sat 5/24 341 West Coast Eagles +22.5 -101 +305
02:40 AM 342 Adelaide Crows -22.5 -109 -345

1 units on tigers
5 units on crows. crows should destroy the eagles.

pico · 05-24-08, 09:02 AM

wce won. tigers covered

pico · 05-25-08, 12:37 AM

uho, are we looking at the biggest upset this year? #1 hawks at #16 demons. demons is leading by 9 at half time.

Half time: Dees lead Hawks
RSSFont downFont largerPrintMatthew Clayton
3:18 PM Sun 25 May, 2008

Demons youngster Cale Morton in action

Today's headlines
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MELBOURNE has taken a shock nine-point lead into half time of their round nine clash with unbeaten Hawthorn at the MCG.

The Demons, who were thrashed by 104 points by the Hawks in round one, played a stirring first half to lead 6.4 (40) to 4.7 (31) at the main break. The Hawks have lost Stuart Dew with a left hamstring injury, the same hamstring he tweaked earlier in the season against Fremantle.

The first half featured four lead changes, with Melbourne building their quarter-time advantage with a two goal to one second term. Ben Holland kicked the first goal of the second quarter for the Dees, but his major was answered four minutes later by Hawks forward Jarryd Roughead.

Neither team could kick a major for the next 10 minutes before Melbourne was gifted a goal when Mark Williams gave away a 50m penalty, with Dees ruckman Paul Johnson kicking truly from 15m.

Roughead had two late chances to narrow the margin but missed consecutive set shots in the shadows of half time.

Melbourne took a six-point lead into quarter-time, 4.3 (27) to 3.3 (21), when Russell Robertson kicked his second goal of the opening term from an acute angle after the siren.

The Dees started purposefully and made a concerted effort to unsettle Hawthorn star Lance Franklin with some physical pressure.

Rick Ladson kicked the first goal of the game for the Hawks, but Robertson's immediate reply wrested the lead back for the home side. Franklin's first soon after gave the Hawks the lead once again.

The underdog Demons then kicked the last three goals of the term through Austin Wonaeamirri, Nathan Jones and Robertson. Melbourne was inspired by the superb play of Brock McLean, who had 13 possessions and four tackles in the first 30 minutes. He has 20 possessions at the half, while Matthew Bate (15 touches) and Cameron Bruce (13) have also been prominent.

For the flat Hawks, Sam Mitchell has 14 possessions, while Chance Bateman has 13.

After Geelong's surprise Friday night loss to Collingwood, the Hawks can take sole possession of top spot on the ladder with a win. A Hawks win would also be the first time the club has won nine games straight to start a season.

Both teams made late changes, with lead ruckman Jeff White missing for Melbourne with a back injury; he was replaced by Mark Jamar. Jordan Lewis withdrew for the Hawks with a corked thigh, and was replaced by first-gamer Jarryd Morton.

donjuan · 05-25-08, 01:01 AM

magpies already moved a full pt.

A full point isn't worth much in AFL.

pico · 05-25-08, 01:12 AM

what an exciting 3rd quarter. hawks scored 4 straight goals before the break to take a 10 pts lead at 69-59.

hawks is 47.5 pts fav, and the money line odds is -1500

if for some reason the demons pulls an upset, this is like the Pats losing a regular season game at the dolphin stadium this year.

demon backers has +47.5 (or +48.5 depends on when you take it) has about 37 pts cousion for 4th quarter. that is about 6 goals and 1 behind.

i doubt the demons will just keel over and hand the game over.

pico · 05-25-08, 01:13 AM

Originally posted by donjuan

A full point isn't worth much in AFL.

no it is not, tigers moved 3-3.5 pts...that is pretty big.

donjuan · 05-25-08, 01:22 AM

3-3.5 is better than nothing but still really isn't huge. Look at what Centrebet offers on 5 point changes from the line. I don't bet AFL other than scalps, but I'm fairly certain 3-3.5 points would be worth about the same as a half point in basketball.

pico · 05-25-08, 01:40 AM

Originally posted by donjuan

3-3.5 is better than nothing but still really isn't huge. Look at what Centrebet offers on 5 point changes from the line. I don't bet AFL other than scalps, but I'm fairly certain 3-3.5 points would be worth about the same as a half point in basketball.

aussie football's tempo is fairly similar to AFL. there are no more totals...maybe there are totals in some book...but not at my book. 120-130 total is the norm. so if NBA total is about 200 pts, then 3 pts line movement is about 1.5 pts in NBA...if you want to think like that.

pico · 05-25-08, 01:41 AM

and for the last game of the week, i took bulldogs -12.5

pico · 05-25-08, 01:46 AM

97-78 hawks full time

nice hit for me. i got demons +47.5 and hawks ML...got me worried a bit at half time that demons might win this one outright...but like most underdogs, they gave it up at the end.

donjuan · 05-25-08, 01:51 AM

aussie football's tempo is fairly similar to AFL. there are no more totals...maybe there are totals in some book...but not at my book. 120-130 total is the norm. so if NBA total is about 200 pts, then 3 pts line movement is about 1.5 pts in NBA...if you want to think like that.

By AFL i mean Aussie Rules. Distributions are a lot different than basketball because the scoring is only possible in either chunks of 1 or 6 rather than 1-3. As I said earlier, take a look at Centrebet:

WESTERN BULLDOGS vs KANGAROOS

1. WESTERN BULLDOGS 1.55 -19.5 : 2.15 -14.5 : 2.00
2. KANGAROOS 2.50 +9.5 : 2.05 +14.5 : 1.82

While I'm sure they take more juice on the 5 point line changes, a 5 point change looks to be similar to 1 point in basketball.

pico · 05-25-08, 01:53 AM

record for this week 9:

Fri 5/23 333 Collingwood Magpies +26.5 -106 +365 04:40 PM 334 Geelong Cats -26.5 -104 -425
134-48 magpies win

Aussie Rules (AFL) Football - Sat 5/24
Game Spread Money Line Total Points More
Sat 5/24 335 Carlton Blues -110
11:10 AM 336 Fremantle Dockers +100
97-88 carlton loss

Sat 5/24 339 Essendon Bombers +20.5 -108 +242
04:40 PM 340 Richmond Tigers -20.5 -102 -274
110-72 tigers win

Sat 5/24 341 West Coast Eagles +21.5 -106 +260
04:40 PM 342 Adelaide Crows -21.5 -104 -300
97-47 wce loss

Aussie Rules (AFL) Football - Sun 5/25
Game Spread Money Line Total Points More

Sun 5/25 345 Melbourne Demons +48.5 -109 +1214
11:10 PM 346 Hawthorn Hawks -48.5 -101 -1674
97-78 hawks win and win

Sun 5/25 347 Western Bulldogs -16.5 -101 -190
01:40 PM 348 Kangaroos +16.5 -109 +172
pending

pico · 05-25-08, 02:13 AM

Hawks make it nine in a row
RSSFont downFont largerPrintMatthew Clayton
4:47 PM Sun 25 May, 2008

Campbell Brown in action for the Hawks

Today's headlines
Video: The Long Walk
Sun, May 25, 08
Hawks make it nine in a row
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Today's videos
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Bigpond Sports Weekend - Sunday Part 2
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HAWTHORN has taken sole possession of top spot on the AFL ladder with a tough 19-point win over bottom-placed Melbourne at the MCG.

The Hawks, who trailed for most of the first three quarters, won 14.13 (97) to 12.6 (78) to record their ninth straight win to start the season, the first time in club history that they've won their first nine matches.

The Demons, who remain anchored in 16th place with a 1-8 record, were valiant all day, leading at quarter-time and half-time and playing with a vigour that was absent earlier in the season.

Melbourne started the last term perfectly with goals to Nathan Jones and Aaron Davey, the latter giving the Dees the lead at the five-minute mark. Tim Clarke kicked his first just over a minute later to give the Hawks the ascendency once more, the lead changing hands for the seventh time in the match. Cameron Bruce made it eight lead changes when he soccered the ball off the deck in a goalsquare marking contest, giving the Dees a one-point lead.

Cyril Rioli gave the Hawks the lead once more with his third of the second half, which was the cue for Mark Williams to step up. The Hawks forward, roundly criticised for his 'choking' gesture last weekend in Launceston, kicked back-to-back goals, the second with four minutes remaining sealing the match for the Hawks.

For the Hawks, Sam Mitchell had 32 touches and Chance Bateman 28, and Bateman was at his best in the first half when the Hawks struggled. Williams, Rioli and Lance Franklin all kicked three goals.

The Demons were led by Brock McLean's 30 possessions, 20 of which came in a superb first half, while Matthew Bate had 29. Ben Holland kicked three goals.

Hawthorn took a 10-point lead into the last change after kicking four straight goals in time-on in the third term. Melbourne had eked out a 14-point lead at the 20-minute mark before a superb Rioli snap sparked the Hawks.

Williams kicked his first, and Xavier Ellis was then gifted a goal after Davey clumsily gave away a 50m penalty in a marking contest. Franklin's third for the match made it four Hawthorn goals in seven minutes.

Earlier in the term, back-to-back goals by Holland broke a run of neither team kicking consecutive goals since the 28-minute mark of the opening term, giving the Demons a handy lead before Rioli ignited the Hawks.

The Demons led by nine points at half time, 6.4 (40) to 4.7 (31), after taking a six-point lead into the first change. The Hawks lost Stuart Dew just before half time with a hamstring injury, the same hamstring he tweaked earlier in the season against Fremantle. He played no part in the second half.

The first half featured four lead changes, with Melbourne building on their quarter-time advantage with a two goal to one second term. Holland kicked the first goal of the second quarter for the Dees, but his major was answered four minutes later by Hawks forward Jarryd Roughead.

Roughead had two late second-term chances to narrow the margin but missed consecutive set shots in the shadows of half time.

Melbourne led 4.3 (27) to 3.3 (21) at quarter-time after Russell Robertson kicked his second goal of the opening term from an acute angle after the siren.

Both teams made late changes, with lead ruckman Jeff White missing for Melbourne with a back injury; he was replaced by Mark Jamar. Jordan Lewis withdrew for the Hawks with a corked thigh, and was replaced by first-gamer Jarryd Morton, who had 19 possessions.