Hedge question

[BigOrangeTitans]

How should I hedge this wager?

Cavaliers + 1200 on Cavaliers - Celtics [Sat, May 10 8:00PM] [NBA Series Winners
(Play) [Pending: $1000.00] Straight bet. Risking $1000.00, to win $13000.00. Ticket Id:

So basically I got a dime risked to win 13k after the 2nd game of the series. Now that we've reached a game 7 i want to lock in a profit. I was thinking I should bet the ML at -400ish. But if I say make an 10k wager on that, I only win 2k if the celts win and after losing 1k on the 1st wager, i get a 1.5k profit. If the cavs win, its 3k plus my 1k back. Any better way to do this fellas? Maybe wait till the 2nd half? I think thats what I'll do, as I dont want to only lock in 1 or 2 dimes of profit on this. I'm hoping to lock in at least 5k+, therefore makin me believe i should wait.

[Stacocakes]

What happens if boston has a big lead though at half time?

[pico]

depends on how you feel about boston at home. if you want to reduce your risk for game 7 to nil, then just bet $10,592.59 on celtics -440 ML...better the odds the better, of course.

[MonkeyF0cker]

The problem with waiting until halftime is the possibility that, like Stacocakes said, the Celtics are up at halftime. They don't even need to be up big. If they are up, you'll have to lay points since there is no halftime ML wager. That means you'd have the possibility of losing both bets. The only safe way to hedge it would be doing what you said. You're still getting a 3:2 return. Could be worse. If that's not enough for you, I'd just let it ride...

[HedgeHog]

Guarantee at least $500 profit by playing Boston ML (roughly $6500 to win $1500). If a middle opportunity presents itself at half (Cleve leads), then you can hedge another dime or two. That's the way I'd do it.

PS you'll make over 5k this way if your original bet on Cavs wins.

[pokernut9999]

Anyone see anything interesting in this ticket ?

[MonkeyF0cker]

Heh. You mean a +1200 getting 13:1? Is that what you're referring to?

[pico]

Anyone see anything interesting in this ticket ?

i donno, what do you see that i am missing?

Cavaliers + 1200 on Cavaliers - Celtics [Sat, May 10 8:00PM] [NBA Series Winners
(Play) [Pending: $10.00] Straight bet. Risking $10.00, to win $130.00. Ticket Id:

[pokernut9999]

Heh. You mean a +1200 getting 13:1? Is that what you're referring to?

Interesting.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Indeed.

[AgainstAllOdds]

sometimes books combine the amount risked and amount to win so in this case it would be correct...

[MonkeyF0cker]

Perhaps but generally not in the context of "to win"...

[HedgeHog]

sometimes books combine the amount risked and amount to win so in this case it would be correct...

Bet Ed does this, too. It's a little misleading on the Book's part.

[BigOrangeTitans]

sometimes books combine the amount risked and amount to win so in this case it would be correct...

Ding Ding. We have a smart person.

[BigOrangeTitans]

Guarantee at least $500 profit by playing Boston ML (roughly $6500 to win $1500). If a middle opportunity presents itself at half (Cleve leads), then you can hedge another dime or two. That's the way I'd do it.

PS you'll make over 5k this way if your original bet on Cavs wins.

Thats what I did, Grade A idea. Hoping Cavs are up at half, and given how the series has went, they have covered the spread at half 5 times in this series.

[pokernut9999]

Not really a grade A idea , why lay $1000 to win $12000 and now it is up to one game and you reduce it for a chance to win $5500.

[HedgeHog]

He's now up $500 instead of down $1000. Not a bad call, but I'm no Dodif (thank God). Nothing wrong with a smart hedge, when appropriate.

[pico]

well, he actually think cavs will win today, which came pretty close at the end. i would do a nil risk hedge and take guranteed 1.5k win. but it is temping to take a shot at 12k. 2nd half hedge sometimes is not possible...you can't get +10 for cavs 2nd half anywhere...unless live betting.

[pico]

actually the smartest thing would do is to hedge all of your wagers when the cavs come close at live betting...you should able to get -200 odds at the end.