Is MLB betting worth it?

[LordVodka]

Baseball is the best and most predictable sport.

[Sawyer]

Well Said Jorge1,

Focus on Dogs. Pick your spots.

Starting Pitchers are usually overrated in baseball. Other factors like Hitting&Bullpen are also important.

Make sure you have an account at Betjamaica, 5Dimes, Pinnacle*, Betfair* and Matchbook*

*These books don't accept customers from USA.

If you have an access to a betting exchange, it will increase your profits dramatically..

Let's say Team A is -150 and Team B is +130.

In betting exchange, odds will be like these,

Team A -140, Team B +139 (or Team A -145, Team B +144 something like that)

You can get a much better price for dog, if you have an account at Betting Exchange.

Let's talk about favs & underdogs..

You can bet on a -200 (1,50 Decimal) Fav..
You can bet on a +150 (2,50 Decimal) Underdog..

What's the difference?

When you risk 100$ on -200 Fav, your net profit is 50$.
When you risk 100$ on +150 Dog, your net profit is 150$!

It's x3!

What if you bet on a +190 or +200 dog? It's x4!

Of course, +150 dog won't win often like -200 fav but winning percentage is not important in baseball betting. The only thing that really matters is Total Units Won, your Total Profit. That's why you should focus on dogs..

I wish everyone a profitable baseball season! GL!

[Sawyer]

7 Days left..

[Dark Horse]

With NBA coming to a close soon enough and a potential NFL lockout, I feel like I'm gonna be in a drought not being able to make any plays for a few months. I'm considering getting into baseball, but I don't wanna jump right in and break my cardinal rule of betting a sport I know nothing about. I guess what I'm asking is do you take MLB action and if so how is it compared to NBA/NFL? I've bet about 20 MLB games in my life and lost about 15 of em It seems to me like it's much more difficult to handicap. Anyways, just curious if it's worth getting into?

From where you're standing now, not worth betting. Baseball is easy for those who have figured it out, but will seem nearly impossible for those who have not. There's a process you need to go through. I'm not going to explain what it is, but if you want to understand the nature of the process, read The Book.

[jjgold]

Hear the same shit every year.

March - "Can't wait for Baseball; it's the easiest sport to cap and Basketball is unbeatable"

August - "Can't wait for Football; it's the easiest sport to cap and Baseball is unbeatable"

October - "Can't wait for Basketball; it's the easiest sport to cap and Football is unbeatable"

You have zero edge and will lose in every sport in the end.

Bingo

It is hilarious how guys come in and say they clean up on baseball and it is very easy

Now these are the same guys lets not forget going crazy over 20 point sbr book bets ($1.50) in real value and the same guys that say buying internet tv packages is too much money (maybe $130 a season) and the same guys driving at 84 fukkin Cutless Supreme.

[CallMeChip]

From where you're standing now, not worth betting. Baseball is easy for those who have figured it out, but will seem nearly impossible for those who have not. There's a process you need to go through. I'm not going to explain what it is, but if you want to understand the nature of the process, read The Book.

Yeah I was thinking the same thing. Gotta do my homework first, I glanced over the mlb stats pages and my face started to melt. Soo many goddamn variables.

[unusialsusp5]

it can be beat but it takes tedious work to keep track of all the starting pitcheres and whether your closer is available and so forth. you should stick to road team underdogs as they are always undervalued. the home field advantage just isn't there but is factored heavily into the lines. also the streak theory works extremely well. just wait for a streak of 5 either way and bet to continue that streak on or against. why should a streak stop at 5 every time. (it doesn't) and you can clean up when it goes 8,9 or higher.

[gangeriver]

I think, it is the best US sport to make money. Also it is the most exciting US league. Even I could enjoy handicapping mlb.

[Sawyer]

Baseball is $$$.

The problem is, too many people got burried by betting on heavy favs. In the past, I did these kind of mistakes too..but when you focus on dogs, the picture changes. You should know even an Ace pitcher can lose as -250 or -300 fav. It's all about finding overpriced pitchers/teams.. Fading Cubs & Cards has always been gold..

[rkelly110]

Yep especially betting phillies amd Giants ml's stay with a strong team all season...phillies made me money last year remember money management.

Same here Harry, I'm taking those two teams on separate lab lines.
Started in preseason and up 14 units.

Use the KISS method. (Keep It Simple Stupid)

Baseball is the only sport where there are 3 game series. The team
you bet on should win one of those 3 games. When they win quit.

Do you have a favorite team? If so, just bet them or against, if they suck.

GL

[Kindred]

watching baseball games is like watching paint dry...but they have lower juice and tons of games so if you can find an edge it's much more profitable than NFL

[Mr. Jones]

Baseball is understandably difficult for young guys to jump into and do well. Many of the reasons have been touched upon in this thread. This game is dominated by time tested, older guys who bear the battle scars which are a part of the maturation process inherent in learning how to beat this game. That is who you'll be up against.

Having said that, it is a most beatable game year in year out. Just got to pay some dues along the way. Be patient and learn. Best way to do that is through your own mistakes. Takes some time, patience and humility.

[reddevil84]

What do you think about Reverse Line Movement in MLB, is it something worth to consider ? I have read it is as it wins at rate of just under 50-percent, but show nice profits because the vast majority of the bets are on dogs.

When can you definite when there is a RLM, I mean if a dog line move from +150 to +140, what should be the public % or money on the favorite to consider it as a RLM ? is SBRoods good to see this last information ?

[mwhelan11]

Not true. Some pitchers have a teams number, as some teams have a pitchers number. There are match ups to consider just like any other sport. It takes time, but it is a beatable market. I started betting during last years baseball season and I turned a profit. There are even line movements that can be exploited without stat-checking.

agreed. example is cc sabathia. The Oakland A's have his number. Just like the Angels always had the yankees number until 2 years ago and its switching. Not saying thats the right way to bet but it is true. Baseball is the easiest sport to cap bc of the amount of games played. They are everyday and overnight lines must come out hours after a game is played. Football you have one game a week and there is so much volume so the lines are sharper.

[mr.inpak]

buy far the best sport to bet number one reason is the bookmakers juice is the lowest out of all sports other big reason is you can get odds on a better picher with the worse team home field is not much of an advantage compared to other sports bottom line play mainly under dogs and road teams if you play favorites dont lay more then -140 pick your spots have multiple outs and only bet a dime line and you have a chance

[Salmon Steak]

I mainly just do soccer now but baseball is my number two and then NBA. You need to calculate the probability of a side winning with respect to the given line in baseball. Maybe you can be good at totals if you can think outside the box. Stop all this "capping" stuff too. Who has time for that? I didn't, but I would read Justin7's book located in the SBR store. I am sure it will tell you how to be a success gambling on baseball.

[boeing power]

Baseball is easy, bet at least 30% of your bankroll on every game

[TRE1968]

if u can pic winnas

[DuncHen22]

...and with almost 16 games a day, I love it

Why wouldn't you just say 15 games a day?

[PokerDave]

BullShit. Straight up. Why don't you just say that YOU CAN'T WIN.
Follow my picks this year & if I show no profit I send you 100 PTS.
If I show profit, you send me 50 PTS.... IS IT A DEAL?
My picks will post on April 15th. Good Luck OUT

[Rookie-Capper]

I will parlay teams if there big favs rather than lay the chalk

[TheGambler]

I myself struggle with MLB but have learned a lot over the years from several on this board. I'm hoping Lakerboy will be posting this year as his threads are always good reads

[WeinketoWarrick]

freaking love baseball...builds my bankroll back up after march madness every year...

[robert_wrath]

You need to track MLB just as one follows NFL. Baseball can easily become profitable provided you know whats going on in the league year round.

[WvGambler]

Bingo It is hilarious how guys come in and say they clean up on baseball and it is very easy Now these are the same guys lets not forget going crazy over 20 point sbr book bets ($1.50) in real value and the same guys that say buying internet tv packages is too much money (maybe $130 a season) and the same guys driving at 84 fukkin Cutless Supreme.

[tonycarr]

This is my first year in MLB as well. Thanks for all the advice.

[Sawyer]

MLB betting is really worth of it but you have to pay the price. It requires hard work & discipline. Almost 15 games every day! You have to spend time to handicap games. Pick your spots right and wait for the right opportunity. Focus on dogs. Stay away from heavy chalk.

Don't forget..baseball betting is not easy..

[HustleGetPaid]

Always look at series prices before you make any bets on the games that are coming up. Track the prices and any prices that look off use that to your advantage after game 1. You have to be creative in MLB betting. Also stay away from weekday afternoon games especially ones that are being played in wrigley field. Dont bet totals the first month of the season and look closely at the first five inning lines and see if they correspond with the full game lines. Take a good look at Team Totals as well. You dont need any stats in baseball, you just need to spend a little time looking closely at the lines and putting all the things above together and you should come out on top. The best thing about bases is the great + money dog winners. You should never bet on any team that is -150 or more. Look at picking +135- +170 dogs all year long and you will make good money.

Solid, informative post!!!

[Jaws1002]

Hey Guys,

Just joined forum and will be betting baseball this year for first time in awhile. First of all I think this forum is great and there is a lot I've learned already. With that said I live in the USA and find it hard to find a sportsbook. Ive only heard good things about the Greek but then read about their 20 cent baseball lines. Can I live with that since they take E Check and thats perfect for me. Or is there another Book out there that has better baseball lines,is trustworthy and takes E Check. Thanks for any responses. Good Luck.

[LineKrusher]

Baseball betting is like taking candy from a baby... Too easy.

[Petenana15]

Long time baseball fan, first season to bet! I am excited and ready to make some cash!

[TRE1968]

use the labby

[jorge1]

i am scared of baseball, seems like my team will be winning 4-1 or something, and then there's one inning where they plug in some JACKASS relief pitcher and it's suddenly 4-7. it's not steady like basketball, one pitch goes wrong and it's a 3 run homer. how do people make money at baseball?

IMO, you cannot look at baseball on a game by game basis...you must look at baseball as it is, THE LUMP SUM of all games...thats the BEAUTY of baseball..the number of games...sure, wild things happen in games, but they happen either way, in your favor, and against..so, with all due respect, this is a pt that you will overcome if u bet lumpsum....meaning, you dont wager a significant amount in any one game.

People make money at baseball by being patient, by picking spots, and by studying line movement. There are so many angles...its incredible.

BTW, you are right..its not steady like basketball..every game is different and must be capped accordingly. but if u ask me, college basketball is erratic as hell...what i do for that sport is make a pick, chose the opposite, and cash my tickets, because its SUPER counter intuitive! other than halfs...

"First 5 inning" bets are usually available everywhere. I prefer these and totals to anything else. Don't let bullpens, even good ones, determine your side outcome!!

Baseball, just like any other sport, is like investing..there are different products..there are stocks, bonds, IRA's, retirement investment, 401K funds, Call-bonds, etc etc...First 5 innings are one of baseball's investment products, and MUST be capped accordingly...

I beg to differ with your comment on not cappin bullpens...If you are struggling capping entire games, its probably because you arent capping bullpens correctly...No offense..please, dont take my comments as such..just constructive criticism...

There are different ways to cap - F5 is obviously gonna weigh HEAVILY on opening pitcher....entire game is going to rely on a mixture of factors...those being: Opening pitcher, bullpens, Last five games, last series against each other, current game sin current series, hom plate UMP..etc etc.

Yep especially betting phillies amd Giants ml's stay with a strong team all season...phillies made me money last year remember money management.

Word of advise..this advise works! it does..not talkin trash, or anything, but the best approach is to cap before the season which teams you like all season..then weed out the ones that are usually OVER PRICED - i.e. NYY, or prior year's World Champs...etc...So pick a team that YOU KNOW is strong, but underrated..and stick to it..great idea..but this year, Phillies and giants, NOT SUCH GOOD IDEA..too much hype behind them PRE SEASON..its STAMPED in everyones brain that these teams will win almost every game, when that is NOT true..if they win 60%+ theyd be lucky..soooo, why not pick the spots when you ffel they might lose and cash the dogs instead?

It's the only sport where you have a competetive edge against the books before it starts (knowing the starting pitchers) Granted, this is usually factored into the line. But if you know enough about the pitchers/teams you can do pretty well Like people mentioned before, stay away from high juice MLs. Not worth it in baseball cuz every game can go either way. Try betting -1 instead of RL (-1.5) to save yourself from a 1 run win- especially when betting on the home team

Great advise...its not the only sport where you have an advantage..i dont think..in every sport there is an edge..but its the sport that is bet by ppl that know more about it..meaning, WHO BETS ON BASES that doestn know SOMETHING about it?

instead, in football, for example, you have these weekend warriors that swear they know about betting just because they put 200 BUCKS on their favorite team come saturday, OR SUNDAY!

bases is for actual Fans (in general)...so yes, MORE OF US win more often than any other sport...but it doesnt necesarily make the books LESS sharp, in my opinion...


guys, i hope all the commentary i left for others is taken as FRIENDLY discussion..not mean argument...i mean it all RESPECTFULLY, and its MY OPINION...not that no one else isnt correct...its JUST WHAT I THINK...

please comment back!

[jorge1]

BullShit. Straight up. Why don't you just say that YOU CAN'T WIN. Follow my picks this year & if I show no profit I send you 100 PTS. If I show profit, you send me 50 PTS.... IS IT A DEAL? My picks will post on April 15th. Good Luck OUT

Showing a profit is good, but one thing that id like to point out...not to you, just in general, is that everyone's time has a price...If i show a 1000$ profit in one season of bases, is that good? to me, its not necesarily worth my time..its fun following...doing the math...discussions..but its TIME CONSUMING..at least for me...so it BETTER PAY OFF! but then again, every season brings new lessons...but every season i have new goals...so all in all, profit is good..but how much is worth it?

MLB betting is really worth of it but you have to pay the price. It requires hard work & discipline. Almost 15 games every day! You have to spend time to handicap games. Pick your spots right and wait for the right opportunity. Focus on dogs. Stay away from heavy chalk. Don't forget..baseball betting is not easy..

YES! I see betting on March madness so easy...to either WIN ALOT..or lose ALOT! but bases..man...its tough..its long...arduous...sometimes you dont even wanna follow it anymore...games ALL DAY every day! and lots of discipline can make it sorta boring..its not football where you have the rush of making 1000 bucks in one monday night game...

DOGS is the way to go..FACK a -150 line! i dont care if baby jebus himself comes and pitches a game..im not layin down -180...i DONT CARE! im not! period...

Hey Guys, Just joined forum and will be betting baseball this year for first time in awhile. First of all I think this forum is great and there is a lot I've learned already. With that said I live in the USA and find it hard to find a sportsbook. Ive only heard good things about the Greek but then read about their 20 cent baseball lines. Can I live with that since they take E Check and thats perfect for me. Or is there another Book out there that has better baseball lines,is trustworthy and takes E Check. Thanks for any responses. Good Luck.

Prices are EVERYTHING on bases...5dimes is great for me...sawyer mentioned others ABOVE...

Baseball betting is like taking candy from a baby... Too easy.

[WinNow]

If you know about baseball... you can make a very nice living until the season is over. HAHA