Duke ML actually had Value!

**Cougar Bait** · 03-20-11, 01:54 PM

I see equal action from the 57,000+ bets I can monitor.

Date # Team Open Spread ML Total Bet# Spread% ML% Total% Exotics%
03/20/11 719 Michigan 135½ 12.5 135.5 57223 50% 49% 74% 37%
2:45PM 720 Duke -11½ -12.5 135.5 50% 51 26% 63%

**UpsetSpecial09** · 03-20-11, 04:32 PM

-800 is absurd in an early March Madness round! Yes it covered but barely. I had a few last minute parlays that I added them into at -800 but they were very small. I was getting really edge at the end there, I said I had a bad feeling when they were only up by 6 with less than 2 minutes. I would never take -800 straight up...extreme risk, very minimal reward.

**samgurt** · 03-20-11, 04:39 PM

Originally posted by UpsetSpecial09

-800 is absurd in an early March Madness round! Yes it covered but barely. I had a few last minute parlays that I added them into at -800 but they were very small. I was getting really edge at the end there, I said I had a bad feeling when they were only up by 6 with less than 2 minutes. I would never take -800 straight up...extreme risk, very minimal reward.

i was in the exact same boat...a win is a win tho!

**rm18** · 03-20-11, 04:51 PM

no Duke -800 never has value on neutral court

**obamaismyuncle** · 03-20-11, 04:52 PM

-800 had value?

**mattmc419** · 03-20-11, 04:53 PM

Originally posted by k13

Meanwhile all the squares like the points because they saw the Michigan blowout.

Are we still squares now?

I've been telling people for the last 2 months to take Michigan. Finished 10-0 ATS and 13-1 in their last 14.

Yet people continued to write them off for some reason...

Oh well, great season which easily could still be going. Next year is going to be something special.

GO BLUE

**C-Gold** · 03-20-11, 04:57 PM

I looked at Michigan's last 10 games before I took them +12 and all of the games were wins or losses under 10, I like those sorts of bets as they played some decent teams and either won, or lost by 7 to a better Ohio st team.

**aca** · 03-20-11, 05:00 PM

congrats!

**k13** · 03-20-11, 05:08 PM

It did, just like OSU ML had value too.

It was -650 at some places, what a joke.

Kansas, now that's a game to stay away from.

**k13** · 03-20-11, 05:15 PM

So if I gave you -800 right now on osu ml, would you take it?

If George Mason comes back but they still lose by 4 points or so, do you say at the end that was a stupid play?

btw, this is the first time in my life I've laid this much juice.

**Johnnythunder** · 03-20-11, 05:18 PM

I admit to betting the Duke ML because I needed a win badly. Just could not see Michigan winning the game and I was shocked to see the 2 point margin.

**fury** · 03-20-11, 05:19 PM

**No coincidences** · 03-20-11, 05:21 PM

Wow.

**mattmc419** · 03-20-11, 05:24 PM

The only reason I think the Duke ML was a 'stupid play' is because of the huge number of points Michigan was getting with +11.5 or +12.5 at, obviously, much better odds.

They've hung tight with elite schools (4 other games vs #1 seeds) all season long, and honestly had a legit shot at winning this. They've been undervalued against the spread for forever.

And no, I'm not just saying that after the fact.

I mostly stick to betting on my home teams (Mich, Pistons, Wings, Lions, Tigers) and do very very well at it. Lots of people say it's a bad strategy, but I know my teams the best, so why not choose them when you think they have an edge. I don't maintain a thread of my picks because I'd probably get bashed for sticking to home teams, but trust me I'm way in profit.

Anyways, congrats on cashing it. Really wish Michigan could have won it though.