Parlay Questions...Do you stick with 3? Or Trixie to help with variance?

[lcscanada]

I know the odds. They are not great for parlays. However, they are my guilty pleasure. My friend loves Lady GaGa. Ok. Fine. Mine is parlays. I am going to play them, but not without some strategy. Now, my questions are:

1) 3 is usually the best optimum parlay to play, anything higher the odds are harder, and although the payouts are much larger, the corresponding odds are not in your favor. If you bet a trixie (3 doubles, and a triple) you can usually break even if you get 2/3, but your overall win for all 3 will be about 50% of what it would be if you bet the whole amount on just the 3. So your trading 50% profit for the chance to break even. This helps with variance, as you can obviously break even and try again if you get 1 wrong, but in the long run it seems like just betting all 3 and no trixie is more +EV.

So my question is, do you bet trixies to keep your BR stable, or do you go for it and just bet all 3?

2) Are there any other parlay strategies for betting 4,5, or 6 games? Example, picking 6 games, but betting 4 parlays on the slip, so if you win 4, you win a small amount, if you win 5 games, you win a decent amount, if you win all 6 you get a lot, but again, not as much as if you just put the whole amount on 6 games, but obviously you lose if you hit 5/6.

Thanks for the input.

[FourLengthsClear]

If you are playing 3, 4 or 5 team parlays (or round robins), you should not be too concerned about variance in the long run. Just stick to books that give you the closest (are actually pay) true odds.

Trixie is a UK term, are you playing at UK books?

[lcscanada]

Yes, I am playing on Bet365 and Betfair. I get paid within 3 hours from my bookie to moneybookers.

So true odds for a 3 team is 7:1, so as long as the three moneyline bets total 7.1:1 or higher, I should just bet 3 straight and avoid trixie?

[senseionline]

i think 5 dimes give you the best odds on parlay if you choose to join the 30% super saver reward u got -107 across board

# of
Teams 5Dimes Special 5Dimes Standard the competition
2 2.74/1 2.64/1 2.60/1
3 6.24/1 6/1 6/1
4 13.01/1 12.28/1 10/1
5 26.10/1 24.35/1 20/1
6 51.42/1 47.41/1 40/1
7 100/1 91.42/1 75/1
8 195/1 175/1 100/1
9 378/1 335/1 150/1
10 733/1 642/1 300/1
11 1419/1 1226/1 450/1
12 2747/1 2342/1 600/1
13 5315/1 4473/1 750/1
14 10284/1 8541/1 900/1
15 19896/1 16306/1 1500/1
16-25 True Odds -107 True Odds -110 NA

[lcscanada]

I don't understand the stats or super saver reward.
Do they just payout standard format? So moneyline does not matter?
So if so, can I pick all super favs, and get paid the same as 3 dogs?

[FourLengthsClear]

Yes, I am playing on Bet365 and Betfair. I get paid within 3 hours from my bookie to moneybookers.

So true odds for a 3 team is 7:1, so as long as the three moneyline bets total 7.1:1 or higher, I should just bet 3 straight and avoid trixie?

Yes, true odds would be 7/1 but no book will pay that.
All UK books simply use compunded odds whereas as US facing books have set pay tables (for -110 lines). As the poster above mentions, 5Dimes are probably the most competitive.

In general terms, keep the number of teams in your parlays to 3 and variance is not really a factor in the long run.

As your OP indicates though, you are giving up a LOT of value by playing parlays at all. Straight bets at Betfair and Pinnacle WILL produce better results.

[senseionline]

spread or side most book offer -110 with super saver u got -107

moneylines does matter and 5 dimes let you parlay all sport hope this help

[lcscanada]

Great, thank you. I will stick to just 3 team parlays. Since the odds are 7:1, I will shop for good lines that give me 7.1+ : 1 and just bet 3.