Don't Forget 3 NBA Games Tonight

**Powderguy** · 03-17-11, 05:35 PM

Better than 4 of the first 6 games ending on the final possession??

**bobbyfk** · 03-17-11, 05:44 PM

on Cavs already

**dfberger23** · 03-17-11, 05:45 PM

I don't really like any of the games coach. May tease Knicks and Nets.

**FourLengthsClear** · 03-17-11, 05:56 PM

Fwiw, I have Chicago/NJ total at 179.

Got under 185 earlier, 184.5 is still a very good number.

**FourLengthsClear** · 03-17-11, 09:32 PM

Originally posted by FourLengthsClear

Fwiw, I have Chicago/NJ total at 179.

Got under 185 earlier, 184.5 is still a very good number.

Never in doubt but a mile off the number!

**Alastair Jervis** · 03-17-11, 09:38 PM

Originally posted by FourLengthsClear

Never in doubt but a mile off the number!

Sorry if it is a dumb question but do you only do totals with your model or ml and spreads as well?
I am intrested in looking closer at this stuff, any good books or sites to get started?

**jjgold** · 03-17-11, 09:41 PM

the 3 games were garbage

I went back to college hoops and porn

**ManBearPig** · 03-17-11, 09:44 PM

Looking at this CLE score, it looks like theirs only 2 games tonight. Where amazing happens!

**Smoke** · 03-17-11, 10:22 PM

NBA takes a back seat during march madness

**FourLengthsClear** · 03-17-11, 10:22 PM

Originally posted by Alastair Jervis

Sorry if it is a dumb question but do you only do totals with your model or ml and spreads as well?
I am intrested in looking closer at this stuff, any good books or sites to get started?

For each game, my model projects a score for each team and, as with any regression analysis, an indication of how "strong" the data is.

In terms of starting out, it really depends on your computer and stats/maths abilities.

I would certainly recommend reading "Basketball on Paper" for insight into what you are going to be looking for in terms of key stats/variables. Aside from that do what you need to do to be able to organise a database and how to perform regression analysis and then test and interpret results.

A word of warning though, there is a lot of work involved and there is no "magic bullet". Finding an edge is hard, especially in efficient markets like the NBA.

**ManBearPig** · 03-18-11, 12:49 AM

Originally posted by Alastair Jervis

Sorry if it is a dumb question but do you only do totals with your model or ml and spreads as well? I am intrested in looking closer at this stuff, any good books or sites to get started?

Build a database that you can pull pretty much and piece of information from. Then it's mining and analyzing looking for any edge. You want to find something that you can exploit long-term or as long as possible. Being a programmer has it's advantages, although you don't need to be to do this...start in excel and go from there. I outgrew Excel real fast though and now it's just about finding the time.