Match Play futures question

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  • 30K Millionaire
    SBR MVP
    • 08-10-10
    • 2003

    #1
    Match Play futures question
    I need some advice. I locked down Kaymer +1550 for 1 unit to win last tuesday. He's in the championship match tomorrow, so I'm pumped about that. I'm wondering if I should take Donald -101 for 7.75 units to guarantee half my profit. Or I can just let it ride on Kaymer to win it all. Thoughts?

    I got tickets from work so I'll be sipping on bloody mary's at the Walter Hagen club on the 13th green. It's going to be a great time, especially with a winning bet locked down
  • FourLengthsClear
    SBR MVP
    • 12-29-10
    • 3808

    #2
    Look at the bet on Donald on its own merits.
    If you believe or calculate that -101 represents value then fully hedging is a good idea.

    If you think that the odds should be better then not betting it (or maybe just partially hedging) is the way to go.

    Reducing variance is good but not at the expense of excessive value.
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