Columbus+11.5 vs Philadelphia
A lot of people are on Philadelphia. Graziani, one of the best QBs in the league, is expected to start for Phili after missing the last 5 weeks. Columbus's offense is 16th out of 17th for points generated. Returning shark QB versus an offensive pip-squeak should be a blowout, right?
A few counter points. D'Orazio has played very well for Phili in Graziani's absence. So well, in fact, that I don't make any line adjustment for Graziani returning.
Second, Columbus's offensive production isn't as bad as it looks. If you are "suppose to lose", good coaches slow the game down. This gives underdogs a better chance to win (and cover). The Destroyers are averaging only 10.3 possessions per game, compared to the league average of 12.5. I don't expect Phili to put up 56 points on 10 possessions.
Third, the game is at Columbus. In years past, I have used a home field advantage of about 1.5 points. This year, the league average has been 5 points. It was higher than last year also.
Fourth, Columbus has been unlucky. In 7 games, they have not recovered a single fumble on defense or kicking. While interceptions are highly correlated to offense and somewhat related to defense, fumbles are almost completely random. On the flip side, Phili has a +6 fumble turnover ratio, making their wins look better than they truly are. The two extremes in luck (and removing it) is worth another 5 point adjustment in the line.
My best bet this week is Columbus +11.5.
A lot of people are on Philadelphia. Graziani, one of the best QBs in the league, is expected to start for Phili after missing the last 5 weeks. Columbus's offense is 16th out of 17th for points generated. Returning shark QB versus an offensive pip-squeak should be a blowout, right?
A few counter points. D'Orazio has played very well for Phili in Graziani's absence. So well, in fact, that I don't make any line adjustment for Graziani returning.
Second, Columbus's offensive production isn't as bad as it looks. If you are "suppose to lose", good coaches slow the game down. This gives underdogs a better chance to win (and cover). The Destroyers are averaging only 10.3 possessions per game, compared to the league average of 12.5. I don't expect Phili to put up 56 points on 10 possessions.
Third, the game is at Columbus. In years past, I have used a home field advantage of about 1.5 points. This year, the league average has been 5 points. It was higher than last year also.
Fourth, Columbus has been unlucky. In 7 games, they have not recovered a single fumble on defense or kicking. While interceptions are highly correlated to offense and somewhat related to defense, fumbles are almost completely random. On the flip side, Phili has a +6 fumble turnover ratio, making their wins look better than they truly are. The two extremes in luck (and removing it) is worth another 5 point adjustment in the line.
My best bet this week is Columbus +11.5.
