A moneyline parlay with odds in your favor

[jmathes]

Boston Celtics have won 14 of the last 15 against the Nets

LA Lakers over the Cavs who jsut had the longest losing streak ever

Orlando Magic over a Washington team that has won 1 road game all year (at Cleveland)

Texas Longhorns have won 6 straight at home over Oklahoma State and are the hottest team in the NCAA


$200 to win $105

[ngates815]

Weird seeing a parlay with a bunch of -500+ teams, and not include the Heat vs Raptors.

[jmathes]

Weird seeing a parlay with a bunch of -500+ teams, and not include the Heat vs Raptors.

I agree, I liked both Miami and Dallas but the odds are much better going against Cleveland, Washington, and New Jersey. I think its a longshot that any of these teams pull off an upset considering the streaks they have had this year.

[RudyRuetigger]

"with odds in your favor"?

[jmathes]

"with odds in your favor"?

thats right, ive got just about all of my 1000 points riding on this. come back tonight and then talk smack rudy.

[VegasInsider]

4 team parlays never have the odds in your favor. Continuing play lay these odds will deplete your bankroll at an alarming rate.

Goodluck tonight though, no reason these 4 teams shouldn't win easily tonight.

[RudyRuetigger]

thats right, ive got just about all of my 1000 points riding on this. come back tonight and then talk smack rudy.

All I asked was how you come up with "odds in your favor", but since you added that last sentence:

I thought it might've been something like your "correlated parlay", and it turns out I was right. Its words you throw in to make it seem like you know what you're talking about but have no idea.

~ -500, -800, -500, -1400.

A 4 teamer with nothing less than a -500 has a good chance of winning, no doubt....I'd hate for you to have to figure out the EV of this bet given a no juice line because its pretty obvious you dont have a fukkin clue, but I'll help you...the odds aren't in your favor.

[jmathes]

4 team parlays never have the odds in your favor. Continuing play lay these odds will deplete your bankroll at an alarming rate.

Goodluck tonight though, no reason these 4 teams shouldn't win easily tonight.

very much agreed but with it being the moneyline and the circumstances of the poor teams, i think this is easy money.

[pavyracer]

It makes more sense to do a 4 team round robin with 2's on the spread if you like these 4 games instead of a 4 team ML parlay at -200 odds.

[jmathes]

All I asked was how you come up with "odds in your favor", but since you added that last sentence:

I thought it might've been something like your "correlated parlay", and it turns out I was right. Its words you throw in to make it seem like you know what you're talking about but have no idea.

~ -500, -800, -500, -1400.

A 4 teamer with nothing less than a -500 has a good chance of winning, no doubt....I'd hate for you to have to figure out the EV of this bet given a no juice line because its pretty obvious you dont have a fukkin clue, but I'll help you...the odds aren't in your favor.

hey rudy, im betting this with sbr points. obviously its not guaranteed to win and i know that. do you really think i give two shits about a few points? i know playing parlays long term will deplete your account but i could care less. i don't see anyone of these teams losing and if they did, who the fukk cares? if you like anyone of the teams above to win straight up i will give you +800. oh wait you don't have any points to bet.

[Romanov]

very much agreed but with it being the moneyline and the circumstances of the poor teams, i think this is easy money.

Sure it is easy money, but this 4 team parlay and others like it will lose often enough that you lose money long-term. In a nutshell, don't think you are brilliant

[Rio DiNero]

You may win this bet , but you will go brock, I mean broke, playing heavy moneyline favorites in NBA and NCAA hoops.

[jmathes]

You may win this bet , but you will go brock, I mean broke, playing heavy moneyline favorites in NBA and NCAA hoops.

Sure it is easy money, but this 4 team parlay and others like it will lose often enough that you lose money long-term. In a nutshell, don't think you are brilliant

do you think i don't know this already guys? maybe if 10 more people tell me this i might figure it out.

[RudyRuetigger]

I only asked the initial question, what do you mean "odds in your favor" because I thought it was a +101 or better bet payout instead of around -200.

[Rookie-Capper]

I have done a few of these parlays myself i like it and ill play it with you.

[Bradyd]

It's a good bet in theory and has a great chance of winning. And as long as you don't make a habit of betting heavy favorites in a parlay, than you will be fine. However like most bettors, winning sometimes breeds overconfidence, which leads to more addictive parlays, that ultimately leads to bankruptcy. Good luck tonight ...

[jmathes]

I have done a few of these parlays myself i like it and ill play it with you.

It's a good bet in theory and has a great chance of winning. And as long as you don't make a habit of betting heavy favorites in a parlay, than you will be fine. However like most bettors, winning sometimes breeds overconfidence, which leads to more addictive parlays, that ultimately leads to bankruptcy. Good luck tonight ...

Thanks guys!

[milwaukee mike]

good luck

i would take the lakers out of that equation considering how lifeless they have played lately, and the fact that cleveland fans are still showing up in huge numbers and cheering for their team

taking the lakers out would pay almost the same as leaving them in and they are the worst moneyline play of the bunch by far imho

[cant call it]

I thought "odd is your favor" would mean
$100 to win >$100
someone correct me if I am wrong.

[Romanov]

I'm going to do you a favor:

Magic win probability = 720/820 / (720/820+100/683) = 85.71%

Lakers win probability = 800/900/(800/900+100/738) = 86.77%

Celtics win probability = 740/840/(740/840+100/697) = 85.99%

Texas win probability = 1400/1500/(1400/1500+100/1075) = 90.94%

For all of those to happen (to win the parlay) we multiply which comes to:

58.16% this parlay hits

So, lets say you win 5816 of these parlays out of 10000. You would win (105)(5816) $610680.
You would lose 4184 of these bets, therefore you would lose (200)(4184) $836800.
This shows that if you made this parlay 10000 times, you would lose $226120
Divide that by the # of plays and your expected loss is $22.61 per parlay you make.

This is an AWFUL bet

[fenexusa]

Boston Celtics have won 14 of the last 15 against the Nets

LA Lakers over the Cavs who jsut had the longest losing streak ever

Orlando Magic over a Washington team that has won 1 road game all year (at Cleveland)

Texas Longhorns have won 6 straight at home over Oklahoma State and are the hottest team in the NCAA


$200 to win $105

good luck

[belvedere86]

what to add to this parlay:

I start with:

toronto +9

[xxplosive]

This is decent nothing spectacular

[BettingGeek]

[BettingGeek]

It's all good. At least OP will learn a good lesson today

[talnted]

It's all good. At least OP will learn a good lesson today

agreed.. very rook of him to be saying all this. best of luck nonetheless

[lakerboy]

Jmathes is a clown...not only can he not pick winners...he's also a huge STIFF


What a BUM!!!

100% agree. Guy is one of the dumbest posters on the site- and that is saying alot.

[twelvejewelz]

Coming down to the wire for ya man....

[jmathes]

The lakers lost this one for me and I knew it at halftime... they lost to a team who just set an NBA record of 26 or so games lost in a row. Not only that this same team lost to a winless Wizard road team.

[pavyracer]

Boston Celtics have won 14 of the last 15 against the Nets

LA Lakers over the Cavs who jsut had the longest losing streak ever

Orlando Magic over a Washington team that has won 1 road game all year (at Cleveland)

Texas Longhorns have won 6 straight at home over Oklahoma State and are the hottest team in the NCAA


$200 to win $105

It makes more sense to do a 4 team round robin with 2's on the spread if you like these 4 games instead of a 4 team ML parlay at -200 odds.

The lakers lost this one for me and I knew it at halftime... they lost to a team who just set an NBA record of 26 or so games lost in a row. Not only that this same team lost to a winless Wizard road team.

What did I tell you? You have a great chance of hitting 3 out of 4 spreads with this strategy with minimal risk and great return.

[RudyRuetigger]

classic

[jhack704]

nba is rigged, what did you expect

[killawookie]

Fail

[WileOut]

better luck next time

[milwaukee mike]

good luck

i would take the lakers out of that equation considering how lifeless they have played lately, and the fact that cleveland fans are still showing up in huge numbers and cheering for their team

taking the lakers out would pay almost the same as leaving them in and they are the worst moneyline play of the bunch by far imho

Sharp post.