The NCAA Title Game shapes as one of the most competitive ever, at least on paper. The two elite teams have saved their best basketball for late March/early April, promising us an entertaining finale in San Antonio tonight.
Opening Line: Kansas 1.5, O/U 144
Current Line: Memphis 2, O/U 146.5
Season Rec: Kansas 36-3, Memphis 38-1
Ave Score: Kansas 81-61, Memphis 80-62
Season Edge: Despite their near perfect record, Memphis wins by 18 points per game, compared to 20 by Kansas. Add in strength of schedule, especially in respect to conference play, and I'd say the Jayhawks were 4 points better than the Tigers. Note that both teams have an average Total of 142 points in their PF vs PA.
Tourney Edge: Let's look at the last four tourney games for each club. Why not all five games? Because #1 vs #16 "games" aren't actually contests at all, more of a scrimmage for the top seeds as they get ready for the real competition. For the record, Kansas and Memphis each won by 24 over "powder puffs" Portland State and Texas Arlington in the opening round. After that, the Jayhawks and Tigers faced roughly the same level of competition and each won by an average of 13.5 points. Strangely, Kansas did so via 4 Unders and an average score of 72.5-59. Conversely, Memphis was involved in 4 Overs and average score of 83-69.5. Even stranger is the fact that the combined average of all eight of these contests is---you guessed it...142 again.
Final Thoughts: My betting scale is from a low of 1 Unit to a max of 5 Units. Also I avoid the "Super Bowl Syndrome" of betting more on the last game of the season just because of its championship ramifications. It doesn't make sense to me as it's simply another game. That said, what was once a 4 point Kansas edge has been shaved down to 2 based on recent play. Also, the 142 Total seems solid; it's been a recurring theme here. My only fear here though is the very real possibility of OT. So my plays are:
Kansas+2 3 Units & Under 146.5 1 Unit
Opening Line: Kansas 1.5, O/U 144
Current Line: Memphis 2, O/U 146.5
Season Rec: Kansas 36-3, Memphis 38-1
Ave Score: Kansas 81-61, Memphis 80-62
Season Edge: Despite their near perfect record, Memphis wins by 18 points per game, compared to 20 by Kansas. Add in strength of schedule, especially in respect to conference play, and I'd say the Jayhawks were 4 points better than the Tigers. Note that both teams have an average Total of 142 points in their PF vs PA.
Tourney Edge: Let's look at the last four tourney games for each club. Why not all five games? Because #1 vs #16 "games" aren't actually contests at all, more of a scrimmage for the top seeds as they get ready for the real competition. For the record, Kansas and Memphis each won by 24 over "powder puffs" Portland State and Texas Arlington in the opening round. After that, the Jayhawks and Tigers faced roughly the same level of competition and each won by an average of 13.5 points. Strangely, Kansas did so via 4 Unders and an average score of 72.5-59. Conversely, Memphis was involved in 4 Overs and average score of 83-69.5. Even stranger is the fact that the combined average of all eight of these contests is---you guessed it...142 again.
Final Thoughts: My betting scale is from a low of 1 Unit to a max of 5 Units. Also I avoid the "Super Bowl Syndrome" of betting more on the last game of the season just because of its championship ramifications. It doesn't make sense to me as it's simply another game. That said, what was once a 4 point Kansas edge has been shaved down to 2 based on recent play. Also, the 142 Total seems solid; it's been a recurring theme here. My only fear here though is the very real possibility of OT. So my plays are:
Kansas+2 3 Units & Under 146.5 1 Unit
. Anyways, gl guys see ya when NFL rolls around.
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