Books getting ready to feast tomorrow

**k13** · 02-05-11, 01:56 PM

Moving to 3 at sharp books is not a good sign for Pit.

**brooks85** · 02-05-11, 01:58 PM

Originally posted by Shonner

Hilarious that Vegas has convinced the betting world that GB is the favorite. Will be hilarious to see Big Ben and Pitt pull off their patented grind it out game against a team that will be lucky to muster up any sort of running game.

you might want to check the betting %s

**sneak-a-peak** · 02-05-11, 02:02 PM

I agree Pit should be favored.

Im really surprise to see it go to 3 and a even number giving everyone a chance to push on the biggest action game of the year.

**Shonner** · 02-05-11, 02:03 PM

Originally posted by brooks85

you might want to check the betting %s

LOL

Money is on GB both offshore and Vegas

**Shonner** · 02-05-11, 02:05 PM

Originally posted by k13

Moving to 3 at sharp books is not a good sign for Pit.

I am sure Big Ben and co. are sitting in the hotel saying "Hey guys, more money came in on Pitt, therefore we don't have as good of a chance to win as we did 2 weeks ago, let's go out and play anyways though and see if we can pull it off"

Pitt should be favored here.

**jjgold** · 02-05-11, 02:18 PM

Pack by 10
This looks too easy

**Brock Landers** · 02-05-11, 04:25 PM

amazing how many people have been shocked at the lines GB has gotten in ALL 3 playoff games

How were they only a small 1 point dog at Atlanta, how were they 3 1/2 point faves IN Chicago

This team has done all its been asked to do.

**mtxj30** · 02-05-11, 04:33 PM

i think steelers will win. packers r playing hot but i think both tems bring their A game and i think

steelers A game is better than packers A game

**Mikail** · 02-05-11, 04:36 PM

I honestly am a little suprised to see GB as the fav but regardless they are the play. Vegas isn't stupid!

**brooks85** · 02-05-11, 04:43 PM

Originally posted by Shonner

LOL

Money is on GB both offshore and Vegas

wrong, check the ML.

ATS is 50/50

come on, the information is out there, put a little effort into getting it

**ipirate007** · 02-05-11, 04:45 PM

I was surprised as anyone to see GB fav by -2.5, looks a trap to me. Pitt at + 3 looks gold, but those are the bets I lose big, Staying away

**BRAVES1985** · 02-05-11, 04:46 PM

GB in a close one

**constrictor** · 02-05-11, 06:40 PM

just play the under

**MJFtheGenius** · 02-05-11, 06:47 PM

yes it is hilarious

this is very funny I cant stop laughing

**k13** · 02-05-11, 06:55 PM

Originally posted by Shonner

I am sure Big Ben and co. are sitting in the hotel saying "Hey guys, more money came in on Pitt, therefore we don't have as good of a chance to win as we did 2 weeks ago, let's go out and play anyways though and see if we can pull it off"

Pitt should be favored here.

They should be and if this line hits 3.5 (which it won't), they should be shitting their pants and know they have no realistic chance of winning.

Btw, I'm on Pit but don't like it that much.

**Money** · 02-05-11, 06:59 PM

pitt has to be the play. team full of vets against guys who have never been on this stage. easy money.

**Poker_Beast** · 02-06-11, 12:03 AM

On the Pack myself, got it when it opened at -1.5

**The Bet Master** · 02-06-11, 12:06 AM

Really not sure on this one at all. I'll force a play just because it's the superbowl.

**eberetta1** · 02-06-11, 12:22 AM

Somebody is gonna be right. The sportsbook just has to have equal money on both sides of the line to make money. A no-brainer.

**suicidekings** · 02-06-11, 02:45 AM

Originally posted by Shonner

LOL. Money is on GB both offshore and Vegas

Even if that was right... so what?

I feel like the notion of betting against the public is a really dangerous misconception. For starters, people never seem to include themselves among "the public". People glean a little bit of knowledge about line movement and public betting and boil it down to oversimplified assumptions like "the side with only 30% on it must be the sharp side" as if there's just two big piles of money that represent a Steeler win and a Packer win, when in reality, there's tens of thousands of wagers containing: spreads, MLs, totals, teasers, parlays, alternate lines, quarters, halves, a million props, and future bets, all with associated probabilities of occurring. Some are correlated, and many are time-sensitive (not just how many points are scored, but when...). And that's before adding in the further complication of 2H & live betting and the fact that the lines move from opening to close, with fluctuating prices and people potentially taking positions to shoot for the middles...

All of this comes together into an obscenely complicated scenario where the books don't have a right side and a wrong side, per se. They have multiple best and worst case scenarios, and a full array in between them.

And people seem to think that they can condense all of that into a PIT-GB pie chart... Now that's a LOL...

**beermankirk** · 02-06-11, 02:48 AM

Props for the win!

**slacker00** · 02-06-11, 03:29 AM

Originally posted by beermankirk

Props for the win!

Absolutely. I'm baffled by those that focus on one spread bet when there's tons of better valued props to bet.

**BigWilly** · 02-06-11, 03:35 AM

Too close to call, hoping gb pull it off

**Jonah** · 02-06-11, 03:39 AM

Originally posted by Shonner

Hilarious that Vegas has convinced the betting world that GB is the favorite. Will be hilarious to see Big Ben and Pitt pull off their patented grind it out game against a team that will be lucky to muster up any sort of running game.

Steelers are the smart play, yep very smart play. In all seriousness, you are right about one thing, and that is because this is such a huge games, it is an advantage to be the simpler team. Perfect passes, and timing routes are a less reliable bread and butter when nerves and stage will be an issue.

**5000stars** · 02-06-11, 05:05 AM

how in the world will there be nerves?
these guys play in a crowd of more than 5000 people.. superbowl is just about the same.. they not gonna be nervious they already played 3 playoff games.. they are ready

**5000stars** · 02-06-11, 05:06 AM

how in the world will there be nervous?
these guys play in a crowd of more than 5000 people.. superbowl is just about the same.. they not gonna be nervious they already played 3 playoff games.. they are ready..they might be slow starting but i believe they get warmed up

**Jnas** · 02-06-11, 07:00 AM

All the "experts" on tv and in print media are picking the packers. That alone makes the Steelers a no brainer for me

**dmtrader** · 02-06-11, 07:02 AM

The Steelers were always the play. Apparently there was so much money coming in on GB that the line had to favor Pitt.

**Nomocino** · 02-06-11, 07:04 AM

The Packers wont need to to muster up a ground game Rodgers will spread the defense out and pick them apart piece by piece and win by 10

**k13** · 02-06-11, 10:40 PM

Originally posted by k13

Moving to 3 at sharp books is not a good sign for Pit.

Originally posted by Shonner

I am sure Big Ben and co. are sitting in the hotel saying "Hey guys, more money came in on Pitt, therefore we don't have as good of a chance to win as we did 2 weeks ago, let's go out and play anyways though and see if we can pull it off"

Pitt should be favored here.

They should have been.