Throw the stats out of the window folks as we have gotten a championship game with BOTH teams deserving to be there, and the line (currently -1 Memphis, though it is floating around as pk em in some) definitely reflects that.
Now, my record in games of national interest is very good, and most of you know this from the trap games I post.
This is how i see this one. I posted in this thread before the line came out the EXACT same line that opened in some books.
That is here, and you can also see how i predicted the line movement: National Championship: Memphis -1/2 Over Kansas
My angle is, the line came out at KU -1 (1.5 at some places) and took only minutes to plumet to Memphis -1. The angle I used to set the line is the one I am using in this game, and considering I was dead on, i'm very confident.
That angle is: Memphis beat UCLA handily. Never was this game really in question. They completely dominated the likes of love and collison. KU beat UNC handily, and even though they blew the HUGE lead for a moment, they won very easily.
Given that Kansas/UNC/UCLA are very traditional programs, the general consensus is they are in a league of there own. UNC getting beat by 20 after completely destroying their bracket, is a shock for most. Not me, UNC hasnt been on the road in a month basically. They, in my opinion, had the easiest road here. Thats why they looked so confused to start the game, and couldnt get adjusted. They shot horribly from the field, while KU couldnt miss. KU is a good team, but this game goes either way if it were played 10 times in a row.
Memphis on the other hand has had a fatal flaw...FT shooting. That was the ONE thing holding them back from being a hands down favorite to win the whole thing. Well, I dont think thats an issue anymore. They are shooting over 70% from the FT line in the NCAA tournament.
So the one thing you can really use here is related opponents. That being TEXAS. In a virtual road game, Memphis beat texas badly in the state of texas. Scored at will, and completely dominated. KU split with them this year, losing @ Texas by a couple and winning by 10 in a much closer big 12 title game than the 10 points shows.
Thats the only edge I needed. Memphis has ONE loss by a couple points to a top 10 opponent(top RPI) in a rivalry game. Say what you want about their conference, but look at their OOC schedule(Gtown, USC, Tennessee, etc).
I see this line floating around a pk em with most of the action on KU due to the blowout win.
Early play: Memphis +1 -109 Matchbook
Now, my record in games of national interest is very good, and most of you know this from the trap games I post.
This is how i see this one. I posted in this thread before the line came out the EXACT same line that opened in some books.
That is here, and you can also see how i predicted the line movement: National Championship: Memphis -1/2 Over Kansas
My angle is, the line came out at KU -1 (1.5 at some places) and took only minutes to plumet to Memphis -1. The angle I used to set the line is the one I am using in this game, and considering I was dead on, i'm very confident.
That angle is: Memphis beat UCLA handily. Never was this game really in question. They completely dominated the likes of love and collison. KU beat UNC handily, and even though they blew the HUGE lead for a moment, they won very easily.
Given that Kansas/UNC/UCLA are very traditional programs, the general consensus is they are in a league of there own. UNC getting beat by 20 after completely destroying their bracket, is a shock for most. Not me, UNC hasnt been on the road in a month basically. They, in my opinion, had the easiest road here. Thats why they looked so confused to start the game, and couldnt get adjusted. They shot horribly from the field, while KU couldnt miss. KU is a good team, but this game goes either way if it were played 10 times in a row.
Memphis on the other hand has had a fatal flaw...FT shooting. That was the ONE thing holding them back from being a hands down favorite to win the whole thing. Well, I dont think thats an issue anymore. They are shooting over 70% from the FT line in the NCAA tournament.
So the one thing you can really use here is related opponents. That being TEXAS. In a virtual road game, Memphis beat texas badly in the state of texas. Scored at will, and completely dominated. KU split with them this year, losing @ Texas by a couple and winning by 10 in a much closer big 12 title game than the 10 points shows.
Thats the only edge I needed. Memphis has ONE loss by a couple points to a top 10 opponent(top RPI) in a rivalry game. Say what you want about their conference, but look at their OOC schedule(Gtown, USC, Tennessee, etc).
I see this line floating around a pk em with most of the action on KU due to the blowout win.
Early play: Memphis +1 -109 Matchbook
