KENPOM says.....

[homerbush]

I would love to read that article. I use Sagarin almost every day. I have found it to be about 50-50. It's something that I use, but it doesn't come close to being the whole story.

Can't find it. Saw post on a different message board and now I wonder what is #1. I usually don't reference Sagarin because the points don't translate to real totals

[davus4]

got that feeling.

When expectations are low, usually the results are surprising.

"lol"

:d

[Heandog]

GREAT -KEEP IT GOING

[Hoja Verdes]

What is the posted record after last night? Congrats on an undefeated card yesterday.

[Lets go out]

Looks like 44-26-3 Plays will be up before 5:00pm eastern time.....So far at least 4

[Peregrine Stoop]

things are rolling now, time for the bandwagon to grow and wheels to pop off.

[CappinTerp]

lets go.

[Lets go out]

Would like to see everyone play these lightly until we are confident we have a completely funtional system...I would still classify this as trial period....Everyone should procede with caution and good money management

LGO

[LockPickMaster]

Would like to see everyone play these lightly until we are confident we have a completely funtional system...I would still classify this as trial period....Everyone should procede with caution and good money management LGO

Can you post the 4 picks now if possible, thax

[Lets go out]

LPM....We never post picks until numbers have been run through at least 3 times....sometimes four and five.....As lines move throughout the day teams are rerun through the system....They need to exit each time as a play for those teams to be listed as a play....Its my understanding that teams we are looking at have been run twice today.....hopeing for another trial at 1-2 o'clock eastern time...posibbly one more at 4.....We have had many teams come up as a play in the first two trials and fail the next two...thus they were not released
I can tell you that at least eight teams have made it through the first two trials as a play.....would expect a % to be eliminated at one of next two trials....Patience is a virtue.....

LGO

[Royfus777]

Can you post the 4 picks now if possible, thax

I'd agree, I've seen the 2 on the b-day thread but I've got work at 4pm east

[Lets go out]

C Michigan and SO. Illinois automatically qualify as picks.....as they meet the criteria in five major categories we have....I can give you those now....the rest must pass through at least one more screening......would prefer two however

[Lets go out]

two Starters on the So. Illinois team are suspended for tonights game....reason we are still releasing it .....we have a variable in the system for an injured player...we multiplied 2x for this game and still have it as a play @ +16.....
GL

[EasyHustlin]

I use Ken Pom to some extent. I read something today that said out of 52 different prediction systems in relation to ATS that Ken Pom ranked 32nd or something like that? Anybody know the report this was in. Apparently Sagarin Pure Points ranked 2nd. Not bashing or anything as like I said I use Ken Pom as well but I would love to see this article and read it so i can determine if it is fact or fiction.

I believe Sagarin's model uses mostly wins/losses and points scored/allowed, whereas kenpom uses almost every stat in the book.

[firehoyt]

So So iLL is the play even with two starters out?! I'd be wary of that. Wichita State will still probably cover.

[Hoja Verdes]

So So iLL is the play even with two starters out?! I'd be wary of that. Wichita State will still probably cover.

That was the angle everyone used to pound West Virginia last night.

[HoulihansTX]

That was the angle everyone used to pound West Virginia last night.

But Pitt has some ballers on their bench. That was unknown to me.

[firehoyt]

Yeah but wasn't there only one starter out on Pitt? Btw your avatar scares the hell outta me lol

[HoulihansTX]

Besides with all the new faces, this system will be mushed to hell. I'm OUT

[Luv2Play2]

thanx... bol alwayzz

[ThingsFallApart]

Besides with all the new faces, this system will be mushed to hell. I'm OUT

Right, SIU has 2 starters out and played their last game with 8 men. Wichita State is led by Juniors and Seniors who are trying to make the tournament, I don't think SIU is the play here.

BTW does KenPom's predicted score take into account the guys out for SIU? I didn't think so and he already had it at 19.

[firehoyt]

Hey let's go, I've noticed on the last few picks you haven't put a rating on them. Is there, or have you seen any correlation to the higher the rating, the higher the success rate?! Just a thought, if you weren't tracking it...might be a good idea to. So if 5 is the cutoff, people would feel better with placing wagers on the higher ranked ones. Similar to "predictionmachines" methods.

[LockPickMaster]

Right, SIU has 2 starters out and played their last game with 8 men. Wichita State is led by Juniors and Seniors who are trying to make the tournament, I don't think SIU is the play here. BTW does KenPom's predicted score take into account the guys out for SIU? I didn't think so and he already had it at 19.

Kenpom does not factor in players missing for any reason so that line should be a lot higher. I would say take SIU if if the line were 17.5 or higher.

[Lets go out]

I stopped putting ratings on games to encourage good money management....Higher ranked games had no better record then the lower ranked ones....From now on plays will be plays....I should say once again that this is NOT a traditional KENPOM system...We had a pretty good system in place before i started using the KENPOM charts....The KENPOM charts simply gave us MUCH better #s to insert into the spreadsheet...Having the PYTH #s was a turning pint for our system....The system does take into account injured players...Each players ranking determines the extent to which the spread is effected....things like injuries and rivalries have been the reason that te system is still described as "TRIAL"....SIU should be played with caution I agree...I've been preaching that ALL of these games should be played with caution until we have a consistant trial that it determined to be effective....System says play SIU tonight but i cant say it wouldnt be prudent to omit it from your wagers if you choose to do so.....as a matter of fact i'm not suggesting you play any games i release that you dont feel comfortable with......Money management and a little homework on your part will go a long way....I'm putting this out there so we can track how its doing and right now not playing these games and simply tracking the system is what i think everyone should do.....Its been working well since we had the Pyth numbers to install...before i started posting we were hitting MANY games....I brought the system to the forum for tracking purposes with the hope of having a valuable tool we could all use someday

As always good luck LGO

[jnsbanman]

Its looking pretty profitable so far! good work.

One thing I just did was out of curiousity went back and on all the loses look at the scores... For reference buying 3 points would have only changed the result of 1 game and the pushes... Not worth the juice by the look of it.

[montoronto]

[Lets go out]

Plays for TUE. 2/8

Penn. +7'
NC Wilmington +9'
Evansville +1
C. Michigan +12'
So. Illinois +16
De Paul +10'

There may be one more either an eight o clock or nine oclock start...will try to post it 1/2 hr before tip
GL....as always tread lightly

[Heandog]

LGO__ Just keep doing what your doing and let all the negative post crap roll the other way .You know you try to help people out and if you end up with a bad nite your an idiot . Your Doing A Great Job AND LIKE YOU SAID PLAY AT YOUR ON RISK.

[clint227]

All dogs today? makes me nervous....

[Lets go out]

me too...prefer at least a few favs.....although their are two late games we are looking at ....may have 1 fav going later

[clint227]

Maybe it will be SDSU -17.5? Something interesting I noticed with the picks today...Sagarin line prediction has the opposite on these ones....take it for what its worth...may be nothing....just an observation


Princeton -7
Buffalo -12
Cinci -10

[Lets go out]

Trust me...I disagree with more than a couple of these picks...Buff being one of them....But i havent omitted any of the system plays reguardless of how i feel about them....If i did it would be impossible to track the system and make positve adjustments....I hate the SIU pick as well......I just post'em as they call...Mabey tonight would be good to just take the night off ......
GL

[clint227]

I understand...Im not betting these just been following the thread because I believe you are on to something with your system

[kanak_attack]

which plays to you disagree with?

[Joe Dogs]

Nice job and good luck tonight.