LGO
whats up bro. are you goin to post any NBA tonight?
whats up bro. are you goin to post any NBA tonight?
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LGO any nba plays for ton?Thanks for the plays and good luck!Comment -
This system amazes me. I was on Seton Hall and VCU a bit, but I would not have bet on any of these other teams.
Thanks for the enlightenment buddy. Good luck to all.
Registering as a pro is very easy and probably worth it for you. Non pro's wont be able to give you more than 2 points, but pros will be able to give you whatever. I was going to hit you off with the 12 I have not in the Sportsbook. Plus, freeplays and sportsbook cash are significantly cheaper in the store.Comment -
Those euroleague picks were money tonight
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Im with Roch...I like the 76ers and the Pacers tonight....Im not making anything official though......Comment -
6ers roll.. im betting them and evansvilleComment -
i have teh same leans with 76ers and pacers good stuffComment -
Man a little worried about that Wis GB vs ButlerComment -
points points points.
that's not true-- i just gave him 10 points the other day and a small bunch some while ago. i think your pre-Circa system has been running so awesome that you're suddenly receiving a flood of points which might have triggered some built in program/safety to disallow people from creating multiple accounts and awarding themselves many points per day. (??) maybe (??)
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What is the line for the Sixers you are playing. +3 ?Comment -
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Guess what...I was worried about the Marist pick a few days ago but it paid off. One thing I've learned with Circa is you have to leave emotions at the door. Every pick may not play out but a large majority will. This is why picking and choosing the games will get you in trouble. Of course there's a risk with every bet or it wouldn't be gambling. At the end of the day, it's all about money management.Comment -
There were point rule changes. They were announced and went into effect on the 15th. I'm sure it is pinned to the top of the points sub forum.
points points points.
that's not true-- i just gave him 10 points the other day and a small bunch some while ago. i think your pre-Circa system has been running so awesome that you're suddenly receiving a flood of points which might have triggered some built in program/safety to disallow people from creating multiple accounts and awarding themselves many points per day. (??) maybe (??)Comment -
Just the other day the rules changed.points points points. that's not true-- i just gave him 10 points the other day and a small bunch some while ago. i think your pre-Circa system has been running so awesome that you're suddenly receiving a flood of points which might have triggered some built in program/safety to disallow people from creating multiple accounts and awarding themselves many points per day. (??) maybe (??)Comment -
im playin 3.5 and the ml wont need the pointsComment -
my gom was on bobcats +5.5 and ml yesterday.. my PoY is on the blazers on the 23rdComment -
They changed the point system. There is talk of shutting down threads. There are threats of turning off personal messaging for people. The site is just falling apart...Comment -
Key wordsin my statement "I talked with SBR". So yeah it's true....unfortunately.
points points points.
that's not true-- i just gave him 10 points the other day and a small bunch some while ago. i think your pre-Circa system has been running so awesome that you're suddenly receiving a flood of points which might have triggered some built in program/safety to disallow people from creating multiple accounts and awarding themselves many points per day. (??) maybe (??)Comment -
I want to make it crystal clear that I wish LGO all the best, and congratulate him on his incredible run over the past couple weeks. Basically hitting 70% over 100 plays. Very small sample size still, but still an impressive feat nonetheless. Given that a system like this needs 1,000 plays or so to begin to settle into a reliable expected win %, it is still VERY possible that it could continue to hit at 70% throughout the rest of the season. From what I can gather, the basis of the system is KenPom stats, which is of course much more sound than the data a lot of guys use to come up with 'flash in the pan' systems around here all the time. So again, I want to congratulate LGO on a tremendous run and hope he continues to win over the hearts and minds of SBR. With that being said...and meaning no disrespect at all...I decided to fade the system tonight at 2x per game. Again...with such a small sample size thus far, he could very likely continue to pound out winners like it's going out of style. But with no net loss days yet, I'm of the humble and respectful opinion that the system is long overdue for a visit from Mr. Variance. Knock Knock.
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Well said......And very possibleI want to make it crystal clear that I wish LGO all the best, and congratulate him on his incredible run over the past couple weeks. Basically hitting 70% over 100 plays. Very small sample size still, but still an impressive feat nonetheless. Given that a system like this needs 1,000 plays or so to begin to settle into a reliable expected win %, it is still VERY possible that it could continue to hit at 70% throughout the rest of the season. From what I can gather, the basis of the system is KenPom stats, which is of course much more sound than the data a lot of guys use to come up with 'flash in the pan' systems around here all the time. So again, I want to congratulate LGO on a tremendous run and hope he continues to win over the hearts and minds of SBR. With that being said...and meaning no disrespect at all...I decided to fade the system tonight at 2x per game. Again...with such a small sample size thus far, he could very likely continue to pound out winners like it's going out of style. But with no net loss days yet, I'm of the humble and respectful opinion that the system is long overdue for a visit from Mr. Variance. Knock Knock.
GL LGOComment -
I speculate (based on observation) that the Circa system is not for gamblers or what I call "squares" per se. It's for sharp people that understand why and how the "house" wins. Squares think that they win or lose based on "luck". Sharp folks know that they win or lose based on skill...analyzing the math and other "influencing" factors. Not playing rivalry games would be considered an "influencing factor". Squares think that the house wins because they are "lucky". The house wins because they have a mathematical house edge. If you play parlay tickets, you are a gambler. If you make staraight bets, you are playing with less of a "house advantage" than those that make parlay wagers. If you make straight bets, then use math and other "infulencing factors", it is entirely possible that you may have effectively turned the tables on the house and "crossed the road" and become a "sharp" player. It (so far) appears that the Circa system is enabling squares to play like sharps, if they choose to. Even the house knows that they dont win every bet that they offer. "I would rather be lucky than smart, but watch out for the smart guy that happens to get lucky! BOL to all...Comment -
Respect. Take notice SBR: This is how you fade picks. Not after the game, not when a poster's picks go 0-8 on the night. Before the fkin tip.I want to make it crystal clear that I wish LGO all the best, and congratulate him on his incredible run over the past couple weeks. Basically hitting 70% over 100 plays. Very small sample size still, but still an impressive feat nonetheless. Given that a system like this needs 1,000 plays or so to begin to settle into a reliable expected win %, it is still VERY possible that it could continue to hit at 70% throughout the rest of the season. From what I can gather, the basis of the system is KenPom stats, which is of course much more sound than the data a lot of guys use to come up with 'flash in the pan' systems around here all the time. So again, I want to congratulate LGO on a tremendous run and hope he continues to win over the hearts and minds of SBR. With that being said...and meaning no disrespect at all...I decided to fade the system tonight at 2x per game. Again...with such a small sample size thus far, he could very likely continue to pound out winners like it's going out of style. But with no net loss days yet, I'm of the humble and respectful opinion that the system is long overdue for a visit from Mr. Variance. Knock Knock.
Anyway, good luck with your plan and again thanks for sharing before the games conclude.
My thoughts: If you flip a coin on the picks tonight you are 50-50 to hit em all anyway. So anything off of your coinflips is real variance. Just cause the roulette wheel goes red 10 times doesn't mean its any better to play black.
Adding to the fact that he's hit 70%ish I would tend to think this "virtual wheel" is maybe biased towards his side of the picks. If he's posting +EV plays then its +EV plays.
Even if you think the system's true winrate is 60% and he's hitting 70% it is always incorrect to fade the plays. Think about it.Comment -
Good Luck tonight. On them with ya!Comment -
I respect your opinion, but I think "the system should lose eventually because it's been so successful" is gambler's fallacy at its finest. Of course, you could be right and I'll look like some idiot spouting psychological drivel.I want to make it crystal clear that I wish LGO all the best, and congratulate him on his incredible run over the past couple weeks. Basically hitting 70% over 100 plays. Very small sample size still, but still an impressive feat nonetheless. Given that a system like this needs 1,000 plays or so to begin to settle into a reliable expected win %, it is still VERY possible that it could continue to hit at 70% throughout the rest of the season. From what I can gather, the basis of the system is KenPom stats, which is of course much more sound than the data a lot of guys use to come up with 'flash in the pan' systems around here all the time. So again, I want to congratulate LGO on a tremendous run and hope he continues to win over the hearts and minds of SBR. With that being said...and meaning no disrespect at all...I decided to fade the system tonight at 2x per game. Again...with such a small sample size thus far, he could very likely continue to pound out winners like it's going out of style. But with no net loss days yet, I'm of the humble and respectful opinion that the system is long overdue for a visit from Mr. Variance. Knock Knock.
Best of luck to both of us. I tailed LGO's plays lightly, erring on the side of caution despite the success the system has had.Comment -
posts similar to what verdes typed makes me wonder if people understand simple probability. The past results have no bearing on the future so lets assume you think the hit rate of the system over the long haul is 58%. Its stupid to assume that to make up for the fact that it went 70% over the first 100 it will go 45% over the next 100.Comment
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