Picoman MLB Accuscore Kelly stake for monday

[pico]

just for reference. i do not suggest you bet these. i am using the current lines on pinnacle, and i omit tigers and atl game because there is no edge larger thean 1%.

halladay +142 8%
harang -106 3.18%
zambrano -130 3.4%
m chico +187 3.31%
guthrie +117 5.41%
sabathia -170 13.6%
hendrickson +188 5.02%
penny -174 9.58%
wainwright -102 13.14%
bedard -182 4.12%
weaver -134 4.06%
peavy -154 8.56%

% is the risking stake using full kelly. hope this will make your capping easier

[pico]

btw, based on the accuscore calc. there is a 6.4% stake on atl -160 tonight, which is a loss.

so it is not something you should follow blindly.

[pico]

tigers heading to extra innings. at those odds, this is a correct game to stay off

[KaidenDager]

Insightful thread Picoman, will you be doing this for the next few days?

[pico]

Insightful thread Picoman, will you be doing this for the next few days?

i'll keep try to do it every night. i am just curious how well would one do to cherry pick games based on the kelly edge using some free service.

uho, KC is on 2nd with 1 out. tigers is in trouble. i hope no one lay wood on the tigers today.

[pico]

i took stl ml for today, so let's see how it turns out.

[pico]

tigers got out of top of the 10th. they have a chance winning here.

[pico]

going to the 11th...

[pico]

uho...5-4 royals now. tigers are in deep shit now.

[pico]

hahaha...3 pitch outs...wait the last pitch was wild...pena on scoring position

[Shark79]

Thanks Pico ... need all the help I can get !!

[pico]

Thanks Pico ... need all the help I can get !!

no problem

espn switch to the dodgers game now. looks like espn is calling the game for KC already. there is still 3 outs to go.

[pico]

tigers got a lead off double...this game is not over yet

[pico]

i would just walk inge right now. 1st base is empty

[pico]

successful bunt. man on third one out

[pico]

i have a feeling renteria is going to strike out here...

[pico]

yep...breaking ball struck out.

[pico]

last out for the tigers. polanco up

[pico]

royals win. nice opening game

[Shark79]

KC ... underdog wins

[pico]

zito is horrible. i think the dodgers has this game.

[pico]

stl looking great right now. 4-1

dodgers hr. 3-0 still 1st inning. zito is their best pitcher? giants is going to be the worst team in the NL this year.

[pico]

just for reference. i do not suggest you bet these. i am using the current lines on pinnacle, and i omit tigers and atl game because there is no edge larger thean 1%.

halladay +142 8% rain
harang -106 3.18% loss
zambrano -130 3.4% loss
m chico +187 3.31% win
guthrie +117 5.41% loss
sabathia -170 13.6% win
hendrickson +188 5.02% loss
penny -174 9.58% win
wainwright -102 13.14% rain
bedard -182 4.12% win
weaver -134 4.06% loss
peavy -154 8.56% win

% is the risking stake using full kelly. hope this will make your capping easier

pretty good for today. loss total 21.07% up 27.52%

overall up 6.45% or 644.76

[Wheell]

It will be fascinating to see if accuscore will get trapped when it thinks it has a monster edge and is in fact negative EV. Over the course of a season this will be statistically significant.

[pico]

It will be fascinating to see if accuscore will get trapped when it thinks it has a monster edge and is in fact negative EV. Over the course of a season this will be statistically significant.

we'll see. just day 1